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Area Of The Resistance Of The DowntrendTitle:
Holiday in Europe Keeps Trading Subdued
Forex News and Events:
While the news flow emanating from Europe has slowed, proving a temporary respite from risky assets, the pressure on Greek banks is growing. After market chatter and media reports, the ECB confirmed that some Greek banks had turned to the Bank of Greece for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) pending recapitalization. The recapitalization that was to be finalized 'soon', and in theory would allow troubled Greek banks to return to normal ECB funding channels. However, with the other story that massive deposits are being withdrawn from Greek banks (€700bn ins May 6th election) circulating, the erosion of core capital means the prospects of these institution quickly returning to ECB seem unlikely. The recent ECB 3 year LTRO operation was an attempt to build a firewall ...
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 05/17/2012
GBP – USD
It may meet resistance in 1.5910 - 1.5933 zone for a drift down to 1.5866 zone, after which bounce to 1.5977 is anticipated.
EUR – USD
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.2679 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.2756. Fall below 1.2641 would cancel this scenario.
USD – CHF
While below 0.9458 - 0.9473 it is more likely to fall further towards 0.9430 or 0.9416. Premature rise above 0.9473 could see it rising above 0.9500 zone.
USD – JPY
Our preferred view is for a drift down to 80.14 or below 79.96. Resistances is at 80.28. A rise above 80.54 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
USD – CAD
Currently uptrend should end around 1.0155 - 1.0151 area. A correction down to below 1.0073 is expected. A rise above 1.0181 will abort the ...
Title:
Spotlight on the Sterling
Forex News and Events:
Yesterday’s European session was a breather for the Euro area as German GDP came in much better than expected at 0.5% q-o-q. The strength of Germany’s numbers pulled EU’s GDP higher to 0.0% against a forecast -0.2%, avoiding a technical recession after last quarter’s -0.3% GDP. Nevertheless, both German and Euro zone economic sentiments were lower, underscoring a fading institutional optimism over economic health. GDP for the biggest European economies after Germany were worrisome, with France generating no growth in the first quarter of 2012 while Italy and Spain’s economies contracted by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively over the same period. The situation in Greece is still moving towards a new round of elections with Independent Greeks party leader Kammemos announcing ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/16/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
Another day of uncertainty went through Wall Street, as the investors were disappointed by the core retail sales, but encouraged by the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Today they will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes and building permits, as bad news might cause sharper declines. We keep seeing bullish reversals during the trading session, which means that there are buyers who want to take advantage of the recent declines, which might cause a bullish reversal eventually. However, it seems that a break-down of the current week's low will make everybody believe that a downtrend movement has begun.
USD/JPY
The USD reached the support at 79.50 against the JPY, which was a former break-up area. The Yen has failed to break-down this support for several days and ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”"
- Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro
Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
USD
"There’s a lot of slack in the economy"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday.
GBP
"March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...
Title:
Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
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The Bank of England's Next Move
The Week Ahead
■The Bank of England's next move
■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone?
■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing
■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric
The Bank of England's next move
The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report.
The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...
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Euro Extends Its Trip South As Speculation On Greek Exit Is Growing
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Core bonds higher at first, but gave back gains in US session
- Fears about Greece and Spain continued to boost core bonds, but a rumours, later confirmed, that the EFSF would today disburse a tranche of the Greek bail-out loan triggered some correction and erased part of the German bond gains and almost all of the US ones. Today, the BoE decision on QE may affect overall bond markets.
- Currencies: euro extends its trip South as speculation on Greek exit is growing
- On Wednesday, trading on global markets was still dominated by negative headlines on Europe. This weighed on the euro. After all, the decline of EUR/USD developed in an orderly way even as several EMU policymakers pondered the option of a Greek exit. Today, the BoE holds ...
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 05/10/2012
EUR – USD
Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.2892 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.2988. Fall below 1.2854 would cancel this scenario.
USD – CHF
Current rise should end around 0.9316. Objectives of this downmove are 0.9249 or 0.9208. A rise above 0.9343 is again bullish.
GBP – USD
Market should hold major support at 1.6039 before rising towards 1.6171 or even 1.6215 limit.
USD – JPY
It is likely to fall towards 79.53 - 79.39 as its corrective rally could falter in 79.79 - 79.91 area. Stop above 80.18 zone.
USD – CAD
One move lower to 0.9986 or 0.9946 is anticipated while below 1.0045 - 1.0065 area. Stop loss above 1.0104 zone.
NZD – USD
It may meet resistance in 0.7841 - 0.7846 zone for a drift down to 0.7808 zone, after which bounce to 0. ...
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