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AppealTitle:
Markets Recover But Stresses Remain
Markets Recover But Stresses Remain
There are two things dominating the markets right now: 1, the Eurozone debt crisis and growing political risks and 2, central bank policy. The Federal Reserve starts its two day meeting today, which will conclude tomorrow with a press conference by Fed Governor Bernanke.
Central bank divergence is a major theme in the markets right now. Weak Australian CPI and PPI data has made a rate cut at the RBA's May meeting all but a certainty. The question now is will the Bank cut by 50 basis points (more than 30 bps of tightening is priced in right now) in May, or cut by 25 bps in both May and June. The latter seems more likely to us as a 50 bp cut is an aggressive move, however, rates in Australia are still fairly high, and so there is room for successive cuts ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Ifo index paints a too positive picture of the growth prospects for the German economy"
- Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group
German business confidence unexpectedly improved in April, a sign the euro zone’s largest economy is weathering Europe’s debt crisis. Ifo business climate index, which is based on a survey of 7,000 businesses, rose to 109.9 points from 109.8 points in March.
USD
"A strong Germany helps the euro massively, and helps other assets too"
- Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday while German investor confidence unexpectedly improved and blue chip companies from General Electrics to Microsoft reported better than expected earnings.
GBP
"While the month of March ...
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Dollar Back On Spot As Spanish Debt Fears Ease, IMF Upgrades Growth Outlook
The Greenback is back on the spot on Wednesday, boosted with less safe-haven appeal amid what seems to be an eased debt worries in the 17-bloc euro area, however worries are out there ahead of Spain's upcoming bond auction.
Amid a lack of major fundamentals from the world's largest economy but with yesterday's boost from the International Monetary Fund and its upgrade for global growth outlook, The USDIX, which tracks the U.S currency against six of it's most-traded peers, rose to 79.76 from 79.65.
Gold price lacked upside support as the dollar rose on Wednesday, as the metal fell for the third day trading around $1641.40 an ounce from $1669.72. Crude oil for May 12 delivery fell to trade around $102.70 a barrel from $104.26, slightly above the $102.20 daily low after printing an $104. ...
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Gold edges down with euro; Spain in focus
(Reuters) - Gold edged down on Tuesday, tracking the euro's weakness as investors watched the Spanish debt market with renewed worries about the debt crisis in Europe, but safe-haven demand may lend support to bullion prices.
Sentiment in the euro remained vulnerable ahead of a Spanish debt auction later in the day. Spain is set to see its borrowing costs leap when it sells short-term bonds after jitters over its deficit and banking sector pushed longer term risk premiums above 6 percent on Monday.
Analysts said gold's safe-haven appeal may attract investors again if the situation in Europe worsens.
"We expect that if European credit conditions continue to deteriorate, gold (along with the dollar) could start to better reflect the growing tensions by moving higher on its steam," said Ed ...
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Soaring Spanish debt costs haunt Asian shares, euro
(Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro fell on Tuesday, as surging Spanish borrowing costs underscored the fading impact of the European Central Bank's bond purchases and stoked investor nervousness over euro zone debt woes, sapping their risk appetite.
Oil and the Australian dollar slipped while a firmer dollar dented appetite for safe-haven gold, which eased 0.3 percent to fall below a key technical level of $1,650 an ounce.
Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose above 6 percent on Monday for the first time since the beginning of December, fuelling concerns that Madrid could fail to meet deficit targets as the country acknowledged it has probably tipped into its second recession since 2009.
That would raise the risk of the euro zone's fourth largest economy being pushed into ...
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Gold falls almost 1.5 percent in end-of-week liquidation
(Reuters) - Gold prices fell almost 1.5 percent on Friday as a stronger dollar sparked a wave of end-of-week selling amid mounting fears about the euro-zone debt crisis and after Chinese economic growth data disappointed investors.
Bullion ended off session lows to finish down 1.2 percent. For the week, it finished up almost 1 percent, its largest weekly rise since the end of February.
But a late afternoon sell-off saw gold prices tumble $10 in a matter of minutes as concerns about the deepening euro-zone debt crisis fuelled end-of-week liquidation. Traders suggested banks may be looking to reduce risk and bolster capital flows.
Spot gold was down 1.22 percent at $1,654.54 an ounce at 2.55 p.m. EDT (1855 GMT), heading for its biggest daily fall since April 4.
U.S. gold futures for June ...
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Spain again to test investors' nerves
(Reuters) - The euro zone crisis is flaring up and debt auctions by safe-haven Germany and current bad boy Spain in the coming week will provide a gauge how far investor sentiment has changed since the shock and awe of recent ECB liquidity injections has worn thin.
Protecting the world economy from the euro area's debt crisis will top the agenda at the International Monetary Fund spring meeting in Washington at the end of the week, just as quarterly U.S. corporate earnings begin to reflect some improvements coming through in economic activity.
Eyes will also be on the outcome of the first round of the French presidential election on April 22, and March data on the health of U.S. retail sales and industrial production.
But it is the debt markets that are expected to hold the key to ...
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Gold eases towards $1,670/oz as dollar recovers
(Reuters) - Gold eased towards $1,670 an ounce on Friday, pausing in its biggest one-week rally since late February, as the dollar recovered lost ground against the euro on concerns over Spain's financial health and after Chinese growth data missed forecasts.
Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,672.80 an ounce at 7.52 a.m. EDT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell $6.90 an ounce to $1,673.70.
The metal is still on track to rise 2.5 percent this week after a soft U.S. jobs report last Friday stoked expectations for new quantitative easing measures. Ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy was a key driver of record gold prices last year.
However, a rebound in the dollar on Friday took the wind out of the precious metal's sails.
"There has been a steady trickle of positive new stories ...
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Gold dips towards $1,670 per ounce as China data lifts dollar
(Reuters) - Gold prices eased towards $1,670 an ounce on Friday, pausing in their biggest one-week rally since late February, after weaker than expected Chinese growth data lifted the dollar and dented appetite for assets seen as higher risk.
Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,671.20 an ounce at 0912 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down $8.00 an ounce at $1,672.60.
The metal is still on track to rise 2.5 percent this week after a soft U.S. jobs report last Friday stoked expectations for new quantitative easing measures. Ultra-loose U.S. monetary policy was a key driver of record gold prices last year.
However, a rebound in the dollar on Friday took the wind out of the precious metal's sails.
"There has been a steady trickle of positive new stories that seem to ...
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