Anemic Labor Market

U.S. Review Modest Growth on a Broadening Base - The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter. - Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations. - Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent. Modest Growth on a Broadening Base This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...

Private firms in the US hired at a very weak pace in April with an increase of only 119,000, according to the Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP) report released on Wednesday. This report also showed that the number of new factory jobs came out below expectations. This gain disappointed as it was well below the Dow Jones Newswires economists' consensus of 175,000 jobs. In addition to this, the March data was revised down and showed an increase of only 201,000 compared to the 209,000 jobs reported previously. The ADP report records private-sector jobs only, while the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) - release by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, due on Friday - includes government workers as well. Following the ADP release, which is known to be a good indicator of the NFP figure as shown in the ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review First-Quarter GDP Growth Slows The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, somewhat slower than the consensus had expected. Consumption remained the primary driver of growth as business spending slowed and the government sector continued to scale back spending. In our U.S. review section this week, we discuss the GDP report in the context of the big miss in durables and consider what it means for business spending going forward. We also look at a very small change in the Fed statement this week that reflects an improving view on the troubled housing sector. Business Spending Poised for a Slowdown? Durable goods orders for March were ugly. The 4.2 percent drop was the largest decline since the U.S. ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review “March Happiness” Tempered by Late Week Reports As March Mayhem arrives in the sports world, investors found much to be happy about with many of this week's economic releases. Retail sales improved for the second straight month thanks to a stronger labor market, rising consumer confidence and unseasonably warm weather across much of the country. Regional manufacturing indices also improved, while import and producer price growth slowed. However, Friday's reports tempered the enthusiasm as industrial production was unchanged, rising gas prices led to the biggest increase in consumer prices in 10 months, and consumer sentiment slipped. Signs of a Consumer Rebound Following a weak end to 2011, retail sales have bounced back, rising 0.6 ...

The Swiss franc advanced against majors after the SNB decided to hold interest rate unchanged at zero and maintained the ceiling of franc at 1.20 per euro as the economy shows progress and deflation threats recede. The SNB said it expects a “moderate” pace near to 1% in 2012, while it forecasts CPI to record -0.6% this year, before prices rebound to 0.3% next year, and then rise further to 0.6% in 2014. The Swiss economy has been showing signs of strengthening, according to the most recent data despite the franc's appreciation. However, the SNB said if the franc did not weaken further risks could emerge, where the banks' assessment for the franc reveals that the Alpine currency is still high. The EUR/CHF pair is currently trading around 1.2100 after felling to a low of 1.2083 and a high ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Nonfarm Payroll Report Continues to Show Progress The big headline for the week was the nonfarm payroll report which showed the labor market added 227,000 jobs in February with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3 percent. The private sector added 233,000 jobs with the largest gains in temporary help, manufacturing, education & health and leisure & hospitality. The real trade deficit of the United States widened in December to -$49.1 billion from -$48.3 billion. While much of the drop was due to an increase in petroleum prices, we expect trade to be a drag on first quarter economic growth. Positive Jobs Report Continues to Support Growth This week's economic indicators continued to signal a moderate pace of economic ...

This week like many others since that the year begun confirmed that the world's leading economy remains on the right track of recovery and is actually advancing within this route of moderate revival with actually more labor, business, housing and labor data released these past days coming in cheerful as an overall and better than projections while that prices pressures or in other words inflation remains well under control to once again support prior Federal Reserve projections. In fact as we start the week we watched business activities continue on supporting the moderate revival of the superpower as the retail sales in January climb up from the prior anemic reading, supported by post-holiday discounts with the retail sales throughout the past month, inclining up significantly by 0.5 ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 11/02/2012 U.S. Review The Moderate Economic Recovery is Still Underway Consumer credit surged by $19.3 billion in December, the second consecutive solid monthly increase reflecting growth in credit cards, student loans and car loans. Weekly first-time jobless claims fell by 15k to 358k and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the number of job openings in December rose 2.5 percent. Data on international trade show the nominal U.S. trade deficit widened 3.7 percent to $48.8 billion in December from $47.1 billion in November. Light Week for Data, but the Economy is Still Improving Despite headlines dominated by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the flow of economic releases in the U.S. this week was fairly light and ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 29/01/2012 U.S. Review Less Strength Than Meets The Eye Real GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate during the fourth quarter, but the underlying data show the economy has less momentum going into 2012. Durable goods orders and shipments rebounded solidly in December, casting some doubt on the earlier weak readings and bringing the data more closely in line with anecdotal reports and regional manufacturing surveys. Expectations for a housing rebound may have gotten a little ahead of themselves. New home sales fell slightly in December, and sales remain stuck near their average for the past 8 months. A Little Less Strength than Meets the Eye Real GDP grew at a 2.8 percent annualized rate during the fourth quarter. Growth was ...