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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Oil slips and posts third weekly loss
Oil prices fell on Friday in tug-of-war trading, posting a 2012 low and a third straight weekly loss as debt problems in Greece and Spain kept concerns about the euro zone economy in focus.
Crude futures felt pressure from news that European officials were working on contingency plans in case Greece exits the euro zone and from a ratings downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's Investors Service.
Helping push oil lower early was data showing Chinese home prices in April fell for a second month in a row from year-ago levels.
"The problems in Europe, highlighted by the political instability in Greece, remain as the primary factor for today's slide in oil prices," said Kyle Cooper, managing partner at IAF Advisors in Houston.
"There is also a factual realization that the Chinese economy ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/11/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks declined as company earnings missed estimates, talks on forming a Greek government entered a fifth day and JPMorgan Chase & Co. posted a $2 billion trading loss. Asian shares and U.S. futures fell.
USD
Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell in April for the first time in four months, led by a decline in fuel costs that signals inflation may cool. The producer price index dropped 0.2 percent after no change in March, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
GBP
Britons turned gloomier last month as a slump in construction pointed to an even deeper recession and producers ramped up prices, highlighting the long and difficult road back to economic health.
CHF
Swiss stocks fell for the seventh day, heading for the biggest weekly ...
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Copper pushes up despite weaker Chinese data
Copper rose for the first time in six sessions Thursday, recovering from the prior day's three-week low below $8,000 a tonne after a double-dose of upbeat data from the United States helped draw in buyers.
Copper rose in tandem with global equities, which were up for the first time in seven sessions, after data showing a fall in weekly claims for jobless benefits and a record surge in exports in March offset weak trade data from top copper consumer China.
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Brent falls below $113 on global demand worries
(Reuters) - Brent crude fell below $113 a barrel on Monday, striking its lowest level since late January, on growing worries about global energy demand after weak U.S. jobs data and European elections that could threaten efforts to fix the euro zone debt crisis.
Oil prices, which have fallen for four straight sessions, suffered a sell off on Friday after data showing U.S. nonfarm hiring slowed for the second month in a row in April, fueling fears of falling energy demand in the world's top oil consumer.
This was compounded by weekend elections in France and Greece that raised concerns over their ability to carry out further austerity measures seen as key to tackle the region's debt crisis.
Since Friday, U.S. crude has lost more than 6 percent, while Brent has dropped over 4 percent.
" ...
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Yen keeps climbing as data saps risk appetite
(Reuters) - The yen held at two-month highs against the dollar on Tuesday, having rallied across the board overnight as investors snapped up the safe-haven currency after disappointing economic news from Canada to Spain tempered risk sentiment.
Data showing Spain slipping into recession, Canada's economy unexpectedly shrinking in February and business activity in the U.S. Midwest falling sharply gave markets the green light to cash in on recent gains in risk assets.
The dollar fell as deep as 79.73 yen, bringing the 100-day moving average at 79.58 in focus. It last stood at 79.85. The euro skidded to a two-week low at 105.47 yen, before steadying at 105.74.
Traders said final month-end positioning on Monday also contributed to the choppy price action.
The market is now bracing for the ...
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Euro slips for a 2nd day vs. dollar as Spain weighs
(Reuters) - The euro fell for a second straight session on Wednesday as euro-zone debt worries mounted one day ahead of a bond sale in Spain, seen as a test of Madrid's capacity to grapple with financial and budgetary pressures.
Spain is the fourth largest euro-zone economy, and some investors worry its financing troubles could lead to problems in healthier economies in the region.
The euro was further pressured by a rise in sterling, which posted the biggest gains among the major currencies. The British pound rallied after minutes showed the Bank of England expressed concern that high inflation could persist into the medium term. One BoE policymaker, for instance, dropped his long-standing call for more stimulus.
The fall in Spanish shares also weighed on the euro. Some strategists ...
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European shares recover as sentiment improves
(Reuters) - European stocks rose on Tuesday, as an upbeat German economic sentiment reading and adequate demand at a Spanish government debt auction helped to ease risk aversion and lure investors back in to the equity market after a month-long sell-off.
Technical strategists, however, said it was too soon to call the end of the downward trend, with the latest move likely to prove just a temporary correction.
By 1028 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 was up 1.0 percent at 1,042.44 points, extending gains into a second day.
The Euro STOXX 50 index of euro zone blue chips .STOXX50E added 1.6 percent to 2,337.11 points, bouncing from technical support of 2,300 after languishing in oversold territory on the 7-day relative strength index (RSI) for around two weeks. The index is still ...
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Soaring Spanish debt costs haunt Asian shares, euro
(Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro fell on Tuesday, as surging Spanish borrowing costs underscored the fading impact of the European Central Bank's bond purchases and stoked investor nervousness over euro zone debt woes, sapping their risk appetite.
Oil and the Australian dollar slipped while a firmer dollar dented appetite for safe-haven gold, which eased 0.3 percent to fall below a key technical level of $1,650 an ounce.
Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose above 6 percent on Monday for the first time since the beginning of December, fuelling concerns that Madrid could fail to meet deficit targets as the country acknowledged it has probably tipped into its second recession since 2009.
That would raise the risk of the euro zone's fourth largest economy being pushed into ...
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