Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The upside for domestic demand in the Eurozone is likely to remain constrained for some time to come by restrictive fiscal policy in many countries."
- IHS Global Insight Chief UK and European Economist Howard Archer
The industrial output in the 17-nation economy rose more strongly than expected in February, boosted by a marked gain in energy production, suggesting that the currency bloc is recovering gradually from the severe debt crisis.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The Eurogroup’s bailout for Cyprus leaves fundamental solvency risks unaddressed. We expect the risk of default and euro-area exit to remain elevated in the coming years."
- Moody’s (based on CNBC)
Data from China created negative sentiments in the ...
www.sunbirdfx.com
Good morning!
Friday last week was a spectacular trading day. The yen stole the headlines all week and it made a grand finale. Pre-weekend position squaring sent USD/JPY as low as 98.09 in the final hour of trading after the pair failed to break the 100 level during all of last week. All of the JPY pairs fell hard and continued falling since the open this week during the Asian session.
Credit Suisse Bank analysts are saying : "The ongoing consolidation and correction downwards in USD/JPY will be short lived and the pair will soon resume its gains towards 105 in Q2, and 120 in 12 months..."
The GOLD chart was like a series waterfalls as it dropped and consolidated several times. The big news is that it closed below the triple-bottom at $1522 and entered a technical ...
The scenario of a trend reversal is taking place on the pair NZD/USD. The price has indeed resumed its downward movement after a period of consolidation. The pair has just broken the short term bullish slant (blue line) which has gave support many times. A new bearish slant (purple line) seems to lead the movement. The price is now heading towards the support at 0.8335.
We recommend to trade only short positions as far as 0.8475 is resistance. A return below 0.8435 would reinforce our bearish sentiment. The break of 0.8335 will give a new sell signal and should open the way to 0.8270.
In case of return above 0.8475, we will be neutral between this level and 0.8516.
NZD/USD 1h chart
NZD/USD 4h chart
Builders probably began work on U.S. homes in March at the second-fastest pace in almost five years, a sign one of the bright spots of the expansion is making further progress, economists said before reports this week. Housing starts increased to a 930,000 annualized rate from a 917,000 pace in February, according to the median estimate of 63 economists surveyed by Bloomberg before an April 16 report from the Commerce Department. Figures from the Federal Reserve the same day may show industrial production rose in March.
China’s economic growth unexpectedly lost momentum in the first quarter as gains in factory output and consumption weakened, driving stocks and commodities lower on concern global expansion will slow. Gross domestic product rose 7.7 percent from a year earlier, the ...
- Forex Technical Analysis : 04/15/2013 -
(Timeframes: 30 minutes)
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
XAU/USD (Gold) Technical Analysis
XAG/USD (Silver) Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis
www.sunbirdfx.com
EUR/USD: Buy orders at 1.3040/50 some sell stops below mixed in with layered buy orders down to 1.3000 with sell stops below again. Technical resistance and sell orders at 1.3140/50 (55 day MA and 100 day MA 1.3150) buy stops above.
GBP/USD: Sell orders from 1.5400 up to 1.5425 , there are buy stops above. Technical resistance at 1.5460. Buy orders at 1.5340/50, ahead of technical support 1.5308 (55 day MA).
EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8500/05 and 0.8485/950 (tenkan line 0.8493) with more down at 0.8450/55 (cloud base 0.8451). Offers 0.8530/35, 0.8555/60, ahead of tech res 0.8580/85 (55 day MA 0.8585)
AUD/USD: Buy orders at 1.0500/10, with larger down at 1.0475/85. Swell orders 1.0555/65 and 1.0580/00 (1.0600 barrier), buy stops above ahead of more sell orders at 1.0615/25.
...
Today’s highlights:
· German WPI (MoM) (Ger, 07:00 GMT)
· Industrial Production (MoM) (EU, 10:00 GMT)
· Core PPI (YoY) + Core Retail Sales (MoM) + PPI (YoY) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S, 14:55 GMT)
· Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks (U.S, 17:30 GMT)
Bearish forecasts for the U.S. economy are giving way to more upbeat views of the nation’s ability to weather federal spending cuts and tax increases. At Morgan Stanley in New York, Chief U.S. Economist Vincent Reinhart now sees a 3 percent pace of growth in the first quarter, up from 0.8 percent in December. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Bruce Kasman raised his forecast to 3.3 percent from 1 percent.
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by more than anticipated in the ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Disposable incomes grow significantly and the job market remains stable."
- Berlin-based think tank
Consumer prices in Europe’s largest economy were confirmed at two year low, according to a final consumer price index released by the Federal Statistical Office. German inflation rose 1.4% since March 2012, unchanged from a previous estimate and down from the 1.5% inflation rate seen in February.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We maintain our bullish euro/dollar position with important pivotal points at $1.3135/1.3150 now set to be tested. A move above here would open the way for a rebound towards $1.33/1.34."
- Morgan Stanley (based on CNBC)
Despite the presence of formidable resistance levels and signals of ...
The pair GBP/USD continues to stumble on the parallel of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines). The price is still taking support on the bullish slant (black line). On the shorter term, the price has just broken its bearish slant (blue lines). Attention, a head and shoulders pattern seems to appear on the pair. The second shoulder is currently shaping.
We continue to advise long positions as far as 1.53 is support. The following days will be very important on the pair. They should allow us to determine if we are at the end of correction or if a resumption of the downtrend is coming. The breakout of 1.54 will invalidate the scenario of a head and shoulders. The trend reversal would be validated by the breakout of 1.5450.
We will be neutral between 1.53 and 1.5250. The breakout of ...