Analysis Of The Underlying Details

Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012 - Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17) - Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday). - Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain. - On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...

Sunrise Market Commentary Fixed Income: Core global bonds remain well bid, but fail to profit from weak data While the Bund set a new contract high, the price action showed little momentum. Rumours about a French rating downgrade gave core bonds a shot in the arm, but subsequent weak eco data were largely ignored, triggering some profit taking in late US session. Currencies: Break lower in EUR/GBP confirmed Also in EUR/USD rather dull session leaving the pair little changed in the close. Intra-day decline on French rating rumours was later on reversed. Upcoming IMF meeting, French presidential elections and FOMC meeting might keep investors sidelined today. The Sunrise Headlines US Equities dropped for a second straight session on Thursday. The S&P fell 0.59% as weak ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Housing Indicators Pulled Back, but Don't Be Alarmed This week, the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. While housing indicators painted somewhat of a mixed picture, with nearly all housing market indicators unexpectedly declining on the month, we continue to see real improvement. That said, much of the pullback was due to the mild winter, which likely exacerbated the seasonal adjustment process. Housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent to a 698,000-unit pace in February. January starts, however, were upwardly revised to a 706,000-unit pace, the highest level since October 2008. Housing Indicators Pulled back, but Don't Be Alarmed This week the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 25/02/2012 U.S. Review Housing Market Recovery: A Regional Story This week, data on the housing market pointed to some slight firming. Although new home sales edged down 0.9 percent, existing home sales were up 4.3 percent. Even with the somewhat better housing data this week, concerns remain about the backlog of foreclosures and their effect on the market. Initial jobless claims continued to trend downward last week declining to 351K. The four-week moving average, the best indicator of the trend, also dropped to 359K suggesting sustained declines in layoffs. Jobless Filings Point to Fewer Layoffs The focus of this week's data was on the housing market with the release of existing home sales and new home sales. The housing data ...

Economic Data Analysis Greek Drama Goes On Greek deal expected on Monday, but slippage would pose significant test of sentiment. Euro area business surveys to post further modest gains, ‘core' Euro area to avoid recession. UK monetary and fiscal policy updates, both record modest brightening in outlook. The slippage in the already tight timetable for the second Greek bailout has caused concerns to grow again this week. This was exacerbated by some Euro area politicians suggesting that the currency union could now withstand a Greek exit. We are much more sceptical. We do not see senior officials throwing away over two years of work to avert a disorderly Greek default, especially when a deal seems within their grasp. This week should thus prove pivotal. Monday's Eurogroup ...

Economic Data Analysis Signs of Cyclical Turn? Key indicators suggest modest improvement in activity, supporting risk sentiment. The coming week's PMI's should add to the view that global output is firming. Euro area remains key risk to a more positive outlook, with the upcoming Summit in focus. Equities followed the now familiar pattern of 2012: a more cautious close following earlier gains. Nevertheless US, Euro area and UK bourses looked like closing another week in positive territory, a further testimony to the wider improvement in risk sentiment this year. Unless the last days of the month see a sharp reversal, January looks set to post a strong rise on the month, something that in stock market lore bodes well for the year ahead (true just over twothirds of the time over ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 02/12/2011 U.S. Review Moderate Improvement in Economic Data The November employment report showed a big drop in the unemployment rate. However, the overall pace of job growth remains constrained. Housing market data this week indicated that new home sales rose modestly in October, while home prices continued their downward trajectory. The latest read on manufacturing sentiment from the ISM-manufacturing survey indicated that output continued to expand at a moderate pace despite the ongoing European debt crisis. Data Supports Stronger Growth in Q4 This week's data continued to reinforce our view for stronger fourth-quarter economic growth. The housing market data showed sales and new home construction have bottomed, while the ISM- ...

The Week Ahead Highlights Risk sentiment stumbles again Waiting for Jackson Hole Are 'safe-havens' due for a short-term pullback? SNB intervention risk is here to stay The ECB calms sovereign debt markets Key data and events to watch next week Risk sentiment stumbles again Risk assets (stocks, commodities, JPY- and CHF-crosses, and commodity currencies) stabilized further to start this past week, but suffered what seems likely to be the first in a series of periodic relapses, as market conviction remains extremely low. We remain cautiously optimistic that the sell-off in the first half of August marked the low point in the current risk retrenchment, but we are keenly aware that risks remain skewed to the downside. In support of the view that a medium-term bottom ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Subpar Economic Growth Defines the Second Quarter The economy grew at a sluggish 1.3 percent in the second quarter after growing a mere 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Stagnation in personal consumption expenditures in the second quarter suggests that higher prices played a role in restraining consumer spending. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in July as the number of people expecting conditions to improve six months from now climbed on the month. Data on the housing market this week continued to reflect the weakness in the housing sector. Subpar Economic Growth Defines the Second Quarter This week we learned that the U.S. economy grew a sluggish 1.3 percent in the second quarter of the year after expanding only 0. ...