Analysis Of The Nzd/usd Pair
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The latest data from Germany are pretty strong."
- Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research
Exports from Europe’s largest economy increased in March, adding to signs German economy is starting to recover from a contraction at the end of the last year. According to the Federal Statistics Office, the nation’s shipments, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, advanced 0.5% from February, when they fell 1.2%.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We are at a very critical stage at the moment and there are indicators that uncertainty is on the rise again. It is essential for the euro area to find the right mix between necessary austerity and measures to support economic growth as soon as ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"It is important that the interest rate is quickly normalised when the situation improves."
- Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann
The number of unemployed people in Portugal soared to a fresh high in the first three months of 2013, the data published by National Statistics Institute showed Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The concerns recently from the policy makers in the euro zone have been that the core has been slowing."
- Royal Bank of Scotland (based on Reuters)
The common currency of 17 nations smashed yesterday, as the price slipped from the 100-day SMA at 1.3146, dropped through the 200-day SMA at 1.3070 and was stopped only around a 1.3021 level, where the weekly S1 is positioned.
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Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"German industry has entered the current quarter with a lot of momentum."
- Heinrich Bayer, an economist at Deutsche Postbank AG
Output at German manufacturers improved unexpectedly in March, reviving hopes about the strength of Europe's biggest economy. Production increased 1.2% from February, when it gained 0.6%, the Economy Ministry said Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The concerns recently from the policy makers in the euro zone have been that the core has been slowing."
- Royal Bank of Scotland (based on Reuters)
EUR/USD is pressed in a channel for more than a month, as the pair is traded between the 100-day at 1.3151 and the 55-day SMA at 1.3007. As the pair is traded flat so long, the both Bollinger ...
At the end of last week, the pair NZD/USD found support on 0.81 and on the lower band of its medium term bearish channel (black lines). Currently, the price is doing a pullback on the major resistance at 0.82 (level corresponding to the upper band of the channel). On the shorter term, the technical rebound has led to a return above a bearish slant (purple dotted line).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.82 is resistance. This level corresponds to the lower band of a former short term bearish channel (blue dotted lines). The break of the support at 0.81 will give a new sell signal and should allow the price to continue its downward movement towards the psychological level at 0.80.
In case of return above 0.82, we will be neutral between this level and 0.8269.
NZD/USD 1h ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The report suggests that, having eased in the first quarter of the year, the euro zone’s economic downturn is likely to have gathered momentum again in the second quarter."
- Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit
Retail sales in the Euro area fell in March in line with economists’ expectations, adding to signs that consumer demand is still weak, which is hampering recovery in the currency’s bloc economy.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The market may have taken that as a little bit of a stronger chance that could cut rates even further, into negative territory."
- TD Securities (based on MarketWatch)
Upward impetus the currency pair has received from the 200-day SMA was insufficient to throw EUR/USD over the ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"As long as this mechanism is not working, a rate cut would simply go up in smoke and could soon look like a last act of desperation."
- Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Bank
During its Thursday policy meeting the European Central Bank is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate as latest inflation and unemployment data suggest the region economy is not on the path of recovery yet.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The shared currency reversed losses because the market is optimistic the ECB will do something beyond the rate cut."
- Citygroup Inc. (based on Bloomberg)
The common European currency is traded in a narrow range between the Bollinger band at 1.3192 and the weekly R2 at 1.3168. The pair does not ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"If it weren’t for the ECB’s usual reluctance to make large changes, there would be a strong case to cut by 50 basis points, and I think the likelihood is perhaps higher than the market expects."
- Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Credit Agricole SA
Heavily-indebted Spain recorded another contraction in the first quarter of this year, adding to concerns that the economy is far away from the recovery.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The shared currency reversed losses because the market is optimistic the ECB will do something beyond the rate cut. The more the market anticipates additional stimulus through credit channels and so on, the stronger the euro will trade."
- Citygroup Inc. (based on Bloomberg)
The major ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We are reaching a trough and the market is betting on the ECB cutting rates to lift the economy."
- Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank
Confidence among Eurozone businesses weakened further in April, strengthening the case for a rate cut this week by the European Central Bank.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The dollar is being sold with weakening U.S. economic indicators and talk of prolonged quantitative easing."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
As expected, the 200-day SMA was unable to stop the currency pair from advancing forward, since recently it has lost its topicality. Accordingly, there is scope for movement up to 1.3168/46, but we also look for higher levels, such as 1.3280/77 in the medium term.
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A correction occured earlier this week on the pair NZD/USD which briefly enter into our neutral zone 0.8435/0.8488. The price has broken its short term bullish slant (purple dotted line). Since yesterday, the price seems to resume its bullish movement. On the medium term, we now inscribe the pair into a new uptrend channel (purple lines).
We now advise to trade only long positions as far as 0.8488 is support. The breakout of 0.8580 (last highs) will give a new buy signal and should allow the price to reach its annual highs towards 0.8677.
In case of return below 0.8488, we will be neutral between this level and 0.8435. This level corresponds to the former short term bullish slant (blue line) but also to the lower band of the medium term channel.
NZD/USD 1h chart
NZD/USD 4h chart