Analysis Of The Eur/usd Pair
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The financial markets appear to have survived the government debt crisis, but the leading economic indicators have recently declined."
- Joerg Kraemer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank AG
Producer prices in Europe’s largest economy slowed for the third consecutive month in April, suggesting weak domestic demand and raising concerns that the economy is far away from the recovery. The measure of producer prices for industrial products inched up only 0.1% from the corresponding month of the prior year.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Bernanke isn’t hawkish, so I think he’s more likely to continue monetary easing. The market will probably respond with dollar-selling to Bernanke’s remarks."
- Gaitame.com Research Institute ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The consolidation of public finances will follow the objectives that have been clearly set."
- Slovenia's finance ministry
Even despite the nation’s plan, which is projected to stabilise public finances and lead to an economic recovery, Slovenia’s credit rating was downgrade by the Fitch agency. Fitch cut Slovenia’s main debt rating to 'BBB+' down from A-, with a negative outlook; saying that macroeconomic and fiscal outlook has deteriorated significantly.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"It’s the U.S. economy that’s in the vanguard, and that explains why the dollar continues to advance. The Federal Reserve might exit its quantitative easing sooner than later, while the BoE is going to do more QE and the ECB is ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The EBA stress tests were really dependent on whether the ECB was ready to do its own asset quality review in the second half of the year."
- Andrew Stimpson, a London-based banking analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods Ltd
As the European Central Bank is set to take centre stage as the region’s chief banking supervisor, banks across the Eurozone are going to face tough regulatory scrutiny of their balance sheets.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"It’s the U.S. economy that’s in the vanguard, and that explains why the dollar continues to advance. The Federal Reserve might exit its quantitative easing sooner than later, while the BoE is going to do more QE and the ECB is favored to do more."
- Miller Tabak & Co. (based on ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Deflation is perhaps becoming more of a risk than inflation for the eurozone, although it remains unlikely for now at least."
- HIS Global Insight analyst Howard Archer
Consumer prices hike in the 17-nation economy has slowed to the lowest level in more than three years, as fuel and telecommunications costs dropped substantially, the EU statistics office, Eurostat said Thursday.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"U.S. bond prices gained sharply yesterday despite William's comments. Each market has its own interpretation now and there's no broad consensus on the Fed's stance yet."
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on CNBC)
It looks like 1.2874/46 will be unable to withstand bearish pressure and thus will give in, ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Global bonds finally react on weaker US data
It took some time, but finally bonds reacted positively to another batch of weaker US data. That may have ended the downward correction that started after the US May payrolls release. However, there is as of yet no reason to become overly bullish for bonds.
Currencies: Dollar ignores poor US eco data
The recent slide of EUR/USD slowed, but the pair failed to profit from a series of poor US eco data. Fed speakers, including governor Williams, continue the debate on the tapering of asset purchases. These expectation are putting a strong floor under the dollar. The trade-weighted dollar is still near the key 84.10 level
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities suffered first losses this week with S&P 0.5% lower. Whereas ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The first-quarter contraction reinforces pressure on the ECB to come up with further measures to try and support euro-zone growth."
- Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight
The 17-nation economy has slumped into its longest recession ever, as the economic activity in the region fell for a sixth quarter in a row. Gross domestic product in the Eurozone shrank 0.2% in the first three months of 2013 after a 0.6% decline in the previous quarter, and below analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% slump.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro zone GDP data reinforced expectations of additional easing from the ECB."
- Commonwealth Foreign Exchange (based on CNBC)
Even though EUR/USD was facing a strong support zone at ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Despite mostly positive economic data for the German economy, the ZEW indicator remains at the level of the previous month."
- ZEW President Clemens Fuest
Confidence among businesses in Europe’s largest economy improved slightly this May, however, less than expected, adding to signs the economic outlook worsens as the Euro region remains mired in recession.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The dollar remains the king of the hill in currency markets."
- CMC Markets (based on MarketWatch)
A bearish breakout from the channel up revived the sell-off, which has pushed the price already beneath the moving average for 55 days. At the moment a line at 1.5240/33 is an obstacle for continuation of the leg down, while a monthly ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We are at a very critical stage at the moment and there are indicators that uncertainty is on the rise again."
- Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG
The Eurozone economy is most likely to shrink in the first three months of this year, suffering the longest recession since the single currency’s creation. On Wednesday the European statistics office Eurostat will show that the region’s gross domestic product contracted 0.1% in the first quarter of 2013, after a 0.6% contraction in the preceding quarter.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say its index of investor and analyst expectations, rose to 40 from 36.3 in April."
- Estimation of ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The latest data from Germany are pretty strong."
- Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research
Exports from Europe’s largest economy increased in March, adding to signs German economy is starting to recover from a contraction at the end of the last year. According to the Federal Statistics Office, the nation’s shipments, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, advanced 0.5% from February, when they fell 1.2%.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We are at a very critical stage at the moment and there are indicators that uncertainty is on the rise again. It is essential for the euro area to find the right mix between necessary austerity and measures to support economic growth as soon as ...