Analysis Eur Orderly

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Global core bonds profit from euro debt crisis - Concerns about Greece and Spain underpinned the ongoing rally of global core bonds. The German 10-year yield fell below 1.50%. Intra-EMU yield spreads versus Germany widened substantially. Today, the eco calendar is enticing. If no euro debt crisis news acts as a circuit breaker, the eco data may for once drive the price action. - Currencies: Speculation on Grexit continues to hammer the euro. - At the start of the new trading week, the Greek crisis remained the key factor for currency trading. With no visibility on the outcome of the EMU crisis, the easiest way for the euro is south. EUR/USD set a new correction low. EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.8000. This morning, strong German ...

Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012 - Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17) - Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday). - Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain. - On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The debt-swap results show that international markets see the prospects the Greek economy has to regain a sustainable fiscal situation" - Evangelos Venizelos, Greek Finance Minister Greece pushed through the bond swap offer averting the immediate threat of an uncontrolled default and opening the way for a second rescue package. USD "The labor market has found its legs in the last few months, and it looks like there’s enough of a broad base that the momentum can be sustained" - Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas Employment grew for a third consecutive month in February, a sign the economic recovery is gaining momentum. Employers added 227,000 jobs to their payrolls, the Labor Department said on Friday, while the unemployment ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Draghi may prepare the markets for the scenario that inflation won’t come down below 2 percent in 2012" - Jens Sondergaard, chief European economist at Nomura International Plc The European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 1.0 per cent on Thursday, pausing to assess potential inflation risks. USD "The downtrend in claims, even with this modest uptick this week, is being sustained" - Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits rose to 362 thousand in the week ended March 3 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday. GBP "A fourth year of interest rates at 0.5% looks highly probable" - Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight Bank of England kept rates at 0.5 ...

Forex News and Events: The sense of nervousness and trepidation continues to grow steadily around the situation in Europe. Sentiment has predominately been negative, skewing the analysis of any news information flow. The second LTRO was expected to herald the next phase of the risky asset rally, but instead became the harbinger of European economic moderation. The recent data released from the ECB indicates that euro zone banks have now hoarded the cash in the overnight deposit facility--to the tune of €820bn. Expectations that the fresh capital would trickle down into the broader economy have dried up producing another round of speculation regarding the duration of Europe’s economic contraction. The sudden collapse of the EURUSD and spike in implied vols, indicate the markets ...

Forex News and Events: A slew of news and speculation around the Greece PSI has taken the momentum right out of risky assets. In the European session news that the IIF are anticipating roughly €1 trillion in loses has traders worried. “There are some very important and damaging ramifications that would result from a disorderly default on Greek government debt,” the IIF said in a document obtained by Reuters. “It is difficult to add all these contingent liabilities up with any degree of precision, although it is hard to see how they would not exceed 1 trillion euros.” The document, obtained from a market source, was dated February 18 and marked “IIF Staff Note: Confidential”. Since then there has been a steady erosion in risk appetite. In addition there is heavy market chatter that PSI ...

Economic Data Analysis Cyclical Improvement Continues Outside Euro Area Muted reaction to Greek deal, but coming week's LTRO should be more positively received. Global PMIs to maintain improving trend, but Bernanke's testimony to down play gains. UK cyclical vs structural debate highlighted with soft lending figures, while PMI improves After weeks of anticipation, Euro area officials agreed a second Greek bail-out package. This should pave the way for the Greek PSI offer being made later today. Markets have hardly greeted the news with euphoria, concentrating on the clauses and hurdles stil l to be cleared, specifically the take up in the PSI debt swap and rising social tensions evident in Greece. Nevertheless, progress to date makes it less likely that we will see a ...

Economic Data Analysis Greek Drama Goes On Greek deal expected on Monday, but slippage would pose significant test of sentiment. Euro area business surveys to post further modest gains, ‘core' Euro area to avoid recession. UK monetary and fiscal policy updates, both record modest brightening in outlook. The slippage in the already tight timetable for the second Greek bailout has caused concerns to grow again this week. This was exacerbated by some Euro area politicians suggesting that the currency union could now withstand a Greek exit. We are much more sceptical. We do not see senior officials throwing away over two years of work to avert a disorderly Greek default, especially when a deal seems within their grasp. This week should thus prove pivotal. Monday's Eurogroup ...

The euro climbed against the dollar and the yen on Friday on hopes for a rescue package for Greece, but gains were capped before a key meeting on Monday that could nail down an agreement. Greece edged closer to winning the 130 billion euro rescue as officials said Germany was optimistic a deal could be struck despite misgivings that Athens would stick to commitments. Euro zone finance ministers were due to vote on the package on Monday, which is a market holiday in the United States. Still, some foreign exchange traders said they would be at their desks. Traders said uncertainty could keep the euro rangebound until a rescue is finalized. "For us we're probably going to go home pretty flat," said John Doyle, a currency strategist with Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C. "We're still ...