Analysis Eur/usd 3mth

FX Strategy Weekly Market Outlook => Irish question remains centre stage for EUR => UK data and minutes this week may threaten positive GBP tone Rumours continue to fly around about the possibility of Ireland seeking aid from Europe, and many are speculating that something will emerge from the Euro-area finance ministers meeting on Tuesday, if not over the weekend. But the situation is hard to judge. While yield spreads have widened dramatically in the last couple of weeks, this is of little current concern to Ireland as they have no need to fund until the middle of 2011. So while it may well be the case that they are forced to access the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) when they need to issue debt next year, there is no obvious reason why they need to do so now. There are ...

FX Strategy Weekly Market Outlook => Pro-risk currencies unfazed by EU periphery troubles; focus on G20 => BoE QIR to test sterling resilience A quiet data and event calendar means the dust should settle somewhat over global asset markets over the coming week, allowing investors to catch their breath and consider what will influence financial markets over the closing weeks of 2010. Risk appetite received a shot in the arm from the $600bln Fed Treasury purchase programme and this largely managed to neutralise escalating fears over the euro zone periphery where bond and CDS spreads hit new record highs. Though long high yield and commodity currency positions already look stretched technically, attractive yield differentials and QE flows from US into non-US assets are likely to spur ...