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German Business Confidence and U.K. Retail Sales Boost Confidence in Markets
German business data boost confidence in markets, helping the euro to rise, amid tensions spreading in markets that the European debt crisis is intensifying.
German IFO business climate surged for the sixth consecutive month in April to 109.9, the highest level in nine months, compared with 109.8 in March, defying analysts' predictions of recording a drop to 109.5.
Current assessment and expectations gauges also beat anticipations as they came in at 117.5 from 117.0 and 102.7 from 102.3 respectively.
In response, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar to trade around 1.3173 compared with the day's opening of 1.3136.
The data is providing evidence the euro area largest economy is on the right track, especially after the rise in investor confidence this month and drop in unemployment to ...
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Break Lower In EUR/GBP Confirmed
Sunrise Market Commentary
Fixed Income: Core global bonds remain well bid, but fail to profit from weak data
While the Bund set a new contract high, the price action showed little momentum. Rumours about a French rating downgrade gave core bonds a shot in the arm, but subsequent weak eco data were largely ignored, triggering some profit taking in late US session.
Currencies: Break lower in EUR/GBP confirmed
Also in EUR/USD rather dull session leaving the pair little changed in the close. Intra-day decline on French rating rumours was later on reversed. Upcoming IMF meeting, French presidential elections and FOMC meeting might keep investors sidelined today.
The Sunrise Headlines
US Equities dropped for a second straight session on Thursday. The S&P fell 0.59% as weak ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 20/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis is far from over still and I think Spain will be worse before it gets better"
- Henrik Drusebjerg, a senior equity strategist at Nordea Bank AB
Spain sold 2.54 billion euros of debt dated 2014 and 2022 on Thursday, above the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros for the auction.
USD
"Progress in the labor market is not quite as strong as people had hoped, but we are still on a recovery track here"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Economic data does look like it is showing some stabilization"
- Samantha Fitzpatrick, senior ...
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Spanish Debt Auction Leads to Moderate Euro Losses
The euro took moderate losses against its main currency rivals during yesterday's trading session, following a Spanish long-term debt auction. While the auction was successful, it came at a higher than expected cost to the Spanish government, and did little to ease investor fears regarding the overall euro-zone debt crisis. Turning to today, traders will want to pay attention to the German Ifo Business Climate. A positive figure may help boost confidence in the euro-zone economic recovery ahead of markets closing for the week.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Turns Bullish vs. EUR
The US dollar turned bullish against several of its main currency rivals during yesterday's trading session, following a Spanish long-term debt auction which failed to convince investors that the euro-zone debt ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 19/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France and Spain plan to assemble EUR 13.5 billion (USD 17.6 billion) in bill auction today as Spanish PM Rajoy struggles to reduce budget deficit and presidential elections in the France drive yields up. France is issuing 2017 bills and 2018 inflation linked notes, a maximum target of EUR 11 billion while Spain is planning to raise EUR 2.5 billion in 2-year and 10-year bonds.
USD
The IMF announced that it has secured 320 billion US Dollars in drive for increasing the fund's lending capacity. Switzerland and Poland have already contributed to the fund expansion. The IMF hopes to raise about 400 billion US Dollars in commitments from countries around the world. The move followed surging borrowing costs of Italy and Spain that escalated concerns over the Euro ...
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Jobless data suggests slowdown in job creation
(Reuters) - The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits for the first time fell only slightly last week, dampening hopes of a pick-up in job creation in April after March's slowdown.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's data was revised to show 8,000 more applications received than previously reported.
The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 5,500 to 374,750.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 370,000 last week.
"The number suggests that improvement is slowing down," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.
Stock index futures ...
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Sterling Leaps Higher On Less Dovish BoE Minutes
Sunrise Market Commentary
Fixed Income: core bonds remain near contract highs
Global core bonds reversed Tuesday's losses in a rather uneventful session. Today, all attention will go to the Spanish bond auction. A weak auction two weeks ago put pressure on Spanish yields since. The 10-yr yield flirts with the psychological 6% mark. In order to avoid more tensions, failure today is not an option.
Currencies Sterling leaps higher on less dovish BoE Minutes
While EUR/USD trading was rather uneventful, sterling was the star performer. Helped by less dovish BoE Minutes and a stronger labour market report, sterling shot higher pushing EUR/GBP below key support and GBP/USD above 1.60.
The Sunrise Headlines
US Equities dropped slightly lower on Wednesday, giving back part of ...
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The UK Defies the Odds
The UK Defies the Odds
The big mover of the day was the pound after some better than expected labour market data and a surprise change in stance from one of the Bank of England's most noted doves. Adam Posen's shift towards the majority (i.e., the fence) from voting for more stimuli at the March meeting seemed to have the most impact on the market as it dramatically reduces the prospect of more QE in the near-term. It wasn't that long ago that the UK was expected to get more QE next month, those plans seem to have been shelved for now.
The tone of the minutes was fairly upbeat compared to previous months. The Bank noted that funding conditions for the financial sector picked up strongly, and banks in the UK could issue healthy levels of debt in the public markets, suggesting they were ...
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Crude Oil Gains Risk Derailing Global Recovery, Eyes on Inventory Data for Signs of Decline
Oil prices are fundamentally determined by the level of inventories according to the supply/demand factor like any other good and service, but as the year progresses, oil price seem to be further contaminated with fears about slowing global growth - possibly crimping demand for crude.
As a matter of fact, the Chinese economy cooled in the first quarter with a drag from external demand, the euro zone economy is struggling to rebound from recession and increasing debt woes, while the world's largest economy is seemingly getting a grip amid signs of recovery.
Household spending in the United States continued to show moderate improvement in the face of rising fuel prices; however the Federal Reserve last week signaled the long-term outlook of the biggest part of the economy may be smudged by ...
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