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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 24/04/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Dutch Premier Mark Rutte offered his minority coalition's resignation after his cabinet lost backing from Freedom Party caused by disagreements over deficit cut plans. The Freedom Party supported PM Rutte for about 18 months. Political uncertainty in the Netherlands cause boost concerns across whole Europe as the Netherlands was one of the nations than strongly favoured European Union fiscal treaty and in case of political collapse may turn to less EU-supportive policies.
USD
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index dropped to its lowest level since 2002, representing the cheapest house prices in a decade. Among 20 cities observed in the index, in 16 house prices have contracted while only three showed an increase.
GBP
Great Britain reported a bigger ...
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U.S. New Home Sales Fell in March But Revisions Put the Level Above Expectations
U.S. New Home Sales Fell in March But Revisions Put the Level Above Expectations
- New home sales fell by 7.1% in March 2012 to an annualized pace of 328,000. While this was below market expectations for a 1.6% increase, significant upward revisions to earlier months' data mean that the level of home sales was higher than expected.
- The inventory of unsold homes fell to 144,000 down from 146,000 in February; however, the slower pace of sales more than offset this decline to push the months' supply of unsold homes on the market up to 5.3 from 5.0 in February.
- While the decline in new home sales in March was disappointing, revisions to the data during the past three months suggest that the market for new single-family homes has been much stronger during the winter than ...
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Busy day for U.S. markets and eyes on Housing data and U.S confidence
Later on today we will most probably watch the world's leading economy home prices throughout 20 of the country cities incline at a slower pace in the month of February, while that consumer confidence of this month could have retreated due to the current pessimism spread regarding the European debt crisis and the slowing global growth rates.
In fact on one hand the S&P/ CS Composite -20 or in other words the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States could have dropped by 3.40 percent from a prior plunge of 3.78 percent signaling of course a constant low demand on houses and corroborate accordingly that the residential real estate market is only enhancing slowly and sees actually a limit to its improvement.
While later the new home ...
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EUR/USD Showed Only Limited Losses Even As Risky Assets Were Sold
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: the only way was up
- Political tensions in the Netherlands and France in combination with weak PMI data set the tone for a risk off environment in which especially German bonds profited. The Bund set a new contract high and the German 10-yr yield set a minor record low (1.63%). The Dutch spread added 18 bps (78 bps) and is well underway to a the all time high (86 bps).
- Currencies: EUR/USD showed only limited losses even as risky assets were sold
- On Monday, EUR/USD ceded ground as negative political and economic headlines from Europe weighed on global market sentiment. However, investors were also cautious on the dollar ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. Sterling was again an outperformer as EUR/GBP reached a new correction low.
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Today's dismal PMI figures clearly indicate that the euro zone economy remains in dire straits"
- Martin Van Vliet, senior economist at ING
The euro zone’s manufacturing contracted in April, a sign the economy is far from out of the woods. The purchasing managers index declined to 47.9 from 49.2 in March, Markit data showed on Monday. Reading below 50.0 indicates industry contraction.
USD
"There’s more work to be done in Europe"
- Mark Bronzo, a fund manager at Guggenheim Investments
U.S. stocks declined after data showed that manufacturing contracted in the euro zone.
GBP
"Political developments in Europe are weighing on indices"
- Rupert Osborne, a futures dealer at IG Index
U.K. stocks declined sharply on Monday after manufacturing in the single currency ...
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U.K. Government debt to highlight our session, Spain to auction short-term bills
Pessimism dominated the market yesterday after the downbeat manufacturing and services data, which regenerated concerns that growth may weaken further in the coming period. In addition, the sentiment deteriorated more after the euro zone governments' debt widened in 2011 followed by confirmed recession in Spain, the thing that sent high yielding currencies south, led by the euro.
The sentiment remains fragile in the euro-area region, where any improvement seen might trigger temporal stability; however, the tension in the debt market must fade away for this stability to last and linger. From here our eyes remain focused on the indebted Spain, where the nation already slipped into recession with fears the government despite the deep austerity adopted most probably will not be able to boost ...
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Analysis: Dow's new corn: "time bomb" or farmers' dream?
(Reuters) - A new biotech corn developed by Dow AgroSciences could answer the prayers of U.S. farmers plagued by a fierce epidemic of super-weeds. Or it could trigger a flood of dangerous chemicals that may make weeds even more resistant and damage other important U.S. crops.
Or, it could do both.
"Enlist," entering the final stages of regulatory approval, has become the latest flashpoint in the debate about the risks and rewards about farm technology. With a deadline to submit public comments on Dow's proposal at the end of this week, more than 5,000 individuals and groups have already weighed in. Dow Agrosciences, a unit of Dow Chemical Co, hopes to have the product approved this year and released by the 2013 crop.
The corn itself is not the issue -- rather it is the potent herbicide ...
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METALS-Copper dips 2 percent on European data, political worry
Copper started the week on shaky ground on Monday, falling nearly 2 percent in decent volume after an unexpected drop in European service-sector activity dampened hopes the region will soon emerge from its economic slump.
With the broader markets focused on Europe's grimmer outlook, copper prices failed to find any support from Chinese data that showed factories in the world's No. 2 economy logged their best performance this year.
Instead, copper sank in a broad-based retreat from riskier assets as political uncertainties in France and the Netherlands added to growing fears that the euro zone's fiscal troubles could spread to countries once perceived to be safe from the crisis.
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Euro area: PMIs Signal that the Recession is Not Over
Euro area: PMIs Signal that the Recession is Not Over
Euro area PMIs surprised to the downside in April. Composite PMI declined from 49.1 to 47.4. The leading indicator signals that we are not out of the recession, and puts downside risk to our Q2 growth outlook of 0.1% q/q.
The euro area economy is faced with strong headwinds from ongoing fiscal consolidation, deleveraging in the bank sector and renewed focus on the peripherals with Spain in the limelight.
Details and outlook
Euro area flash manufacturing fell to 46.0 and service to 47.9 in April. Manufacturing new orders dropped from 45.4 to 43.7 and new exports decreased from 48.3 to 46.3. Confidence also decreased in the service sector from 49.2 to 47.9. The composite index decreased from 49.1 to 47.4. Overall these numbers ...
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