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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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Main Focus to Remain On Spain and Greece As Well As U.K. Fundamentals
Worries are expected to continue this week in the European continent amid the fiscal and economic woes in Spain in addition to the political upheavals in Greece.
The situation seems to be getting worse which may provoke the need for further measures by European officials to prevent the escalation of the European debt crisis.
Fears soared last week after the downgrade of Spain`s Banco Santander, the country`s largest lender, and BBVA by Moody`s amid the government`s efforts to reform the ailing banking sector, and the rise in borrowing cost at a bond selling auction.
On the other hand, fundamentals showed that the euro area`s fourth largest economy recorded 0.3% contraction in the first quarter, following the 0.3% contraction in the last quarter of 2011; therefore, the country is ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Widespread discussion of a Greek exit continued, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades and periphery sovereign debt yields moved higher.
- Financial markets have responded to these global worries with increased risk aversion. The S&P is poised to end the week 3% lower, and 10-year treasuries are yielding just 1.7%.
- U.S. economic data has proved somewhat more encouraging, but growth is still struggling to breakout beyond a moderate pace. This has kept the possibility of additional monetary stimulus alive even if the threshold remains quite high.
Canada
- Recent economic indicators are showing a resurgence of strength in the Canadian economy. Strong ...
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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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U.S. swing states' jobless rates dive in April
Jobless rates in all but two U.S. states dropped in April from a year before, and were sharply lower in battleground states that could decide November's presidential contest.
Sharp drops in unemployment rates were registered in Florida, Nevada and Ohio, while joblessness in Michigan, a key state in the election four years ago, hit its lowest since 2008.
According to Labor Department data released on Friday, New York's rate rose to 8.5 percent, marking the third month in a row in which New York was the sole state with an unemployment rate higher than the year before. Rhode Island's was the same as in April 2011, 11.2 percent.
Compared with March, jobless rates fell in 37 states and the District of Columbia, rose in five, and were unchanged in eight states. North Dakota again notched the ...
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Crude above $93.00 on reversal of the Seaway pipeline
Caution is still keeping sentiment subdued on Thursday, although Japan witnessed a better than expected growth in the first quarter, while the ECB limited its exposure to risk as fears over Greece continue, yet crude slightly rose.
Greece is closer to exiting the euro zone, after attempts to form a new government failed, leading to new election on June 17, during which the far-left anti-bailout party Syriza is expected to win, putting the euro at risk.
Moreover, the trading losses suffered by JPMorgan surged in recent days surpassing the bank’s initial $2 billion estimate by at least $1 billion, while Spain fell into recession in this year’s first quarter.
However the Japan`s economy grew 1.0% during this year’s first quarter compared with -0.2% previous, on solid consumer spending, ...
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Gold pares losses after bear market test, Greece focus
Gold sank to a 2012 low on Wednesday before paring losses in choppy trade, as traders were torn between hope that France and Germany would work together to keep the Euro zone intact and new signs of stress in the Greek banking sector.
Bullion briefly crossed into bear market territory, down 20 percent from its record last September, as intensifying fears a Greek exit from the euro zone would worsen the debt crisis gripped financial markets earlier in the day.
Prices later recouped most of their losses following a meeting between new French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at which they pledged to forge a joint approach for an EU summit next month. That eased concerns of a spat that could worsen the euro zone crisis.
During the U.S. session, gold prices ...
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Today`s FOMC Meeting Minutes outline…
Throughout the FOMC minutes meeting, participants have attested once again that the overall recovery tempo of the superpower is on a right gradual and constant pace with better labor conditions along with a stable enhanced demand while that prices pressures remain subdued, yet once more rates will stay exceptionally low at least through late 2014 to support the ongoing recovery.
In fact the world`s leading economy is gaining strength steadily, which was witnessed clearly since last year second half and mainly fourth quarter till this day and accordingly the FOMC members attested and proclaimed once again that the economy is "expanding moderately" with overall sectors activities gaining momentum including the labor market.
However the FOMC members confirmed today that in case that some ...
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