Amid Softer Us Dollar

USD is Preferred Haven USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures. EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...

The Week Ahead ■The Bank of England's next move ■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone? ■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing ■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric The Bank of England's next move The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report. The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...

USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes USD is mostly softer as sentiment stabilizes and amid slightly weaker US economic data. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 1k to 367k (cons. 368k) from an upwardly revised 368k (prior 365k). The 4-week moving average in initial claims fell for the first time in 5 weeks with a drop of -5.3k indicating marginal improvement in labor. The March trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of -$51.8B (cons. -50.0B, prior -45.4B) as imports jumped 5.2% – the largest increase in over a year. European bourses are currently trading in positive territory, US stock futures are suggesting upside at the open, and UST yields are higher across the curve indicating a better risk environment today. The dollar index is lower and testing the 80.00 figure as ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The U.S. labor-market report will further erode investor confidence" - Markus Allenspach, head of bond research at Julius Baer Group Ltd. European stocks extended weekly losses, after a report showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in April. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased 1.76 per cent to 253.00. Germany’s DAX Index tumbled 1.99 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index contracted 1.90 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index lost 1.93 per cent to 5,655.06. USD "We’re still very much on the recovery path, but we’ve got a huge amount of ground to make up in the labor market" - Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector in April, tumbled to 115,000 from 154,000 the ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64. USD Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%. GBP Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The likelihood of inflation falling below 2 percent in the short run remains low, putting the ECB in a difficult situation." - Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING Inflation in the euro zone rose by more than expected in April, mounting pressure on the European Central Bank to take action against price pressures. USD "Manufacturing is still in pretty good shape." - Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in April at the fastest pace in 10 months, showed Institute for Supply Management data on Tuesday. GBP "The good news is that manufacturing clocked up a fifth straight rise, whilst cost pressures have eased a little and some firms are still recruiting." - Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF U.K. ...

USD is trading mixed with a softer tone as sentiment appears to be stabilizing. Overnight, China's official April manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 53.3 from the prior 53.1 indicating continued expansion and the RBA delivered a surprising 50bps rate cut. Golden Week holidays continue which is keeping activity relatively light and the dollar index is slightly lower today, reaching lows that have not been seen since late Feb. UST yields are broadly lower, US equity futures are relatively flat, and European bourses are closed for May Day. On the data front, March construction spending and the April ISM manufacturing report are due at 1000ET. Regional manufacturing surveys released in the month of April have disappointed suggesting the potential for a soft ISM manufacturing report. ...

UK PMI Manufacturing comes in below expectations but holds above the 50 level Economic Data (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts Cash Target by 50bps to 3.75%; more than expected (PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e (JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 92.0% v 78.2% prior (IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$13.9B v -$13.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.7% v + 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.3% v 20.7% prior (IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.5 prior (AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 99.5 v 99.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -4.2% v 2.1% prior (DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior (UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.5 v 51.5e (lowest since Dec 2011) (DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 61.8 v 53.0 prior (12-month ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We fear things are likely to get worse before they get better" - Martin van Vliet, a senior euro-region economist at ING Bank Spain sank into recession in the first quarter of 2012. The economy contracted 0.3 per cent, after shrinking by the same amount in the previous quarter, Madrid-based National Statistics Institute data showed on Monday. USD "What was encouraging was that the income numbers improved. Our expectation is that job growth does increase gradually" - Peter Newland, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. U.S. consumer spending was boosted by higher than expected incomes, said the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Monday. Household purchases increased 0.3 per cent. Incomes gained 0.4 per cent, the most in three months. GBP "This is year three of a ...