Although Charts Look

April's unemployment rate eased to 8.1%, but it was a mainly because of people leaving the workforce. The Non-Farm Payroll data came out 115K, disappointing a 173K forecast which the market has been scaling back throughout the week. March data was revised from 120K to 154K. Although the data came out very weak, the market seems to have been prepared for this disappointment, and the reaction in the currency market was not clear at first. Source for the charts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/home.htm 2 straight months of weak employment data adds to probability of QE. This could be a reason the USD is being pressured, although risk aversion should boost the USD.So USD direction is not clear. The clearer reaction is coming from the commodity currencies like the AUD ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income ECB can't move global bonds - Global core bonds ended the session unchanged, as initial disappointment that the ECB wasn't more dovish dissipated fast. Today's payrolls are key and might decide whether the 6-week rally is over or has one more leg. Currencies: Major currency cross rates little changed ahead of the payrolls - EUR/USD gained temporarily during the ECB press conference as Draghi was less dovish than some in the market had expected. However, the move was technically insignificant as sentiment on risk remained fragile. Today, the payrolls are the key factor for (currency) trading. Investors might stay cautions on the euro to avoid this weekend's political event risk. The Sunrise Headlines - US Equities dropped for a ...

(Reuters) - The euro slipped against the dollar from a fourth straight day on Thursday as European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi gave a more upbeat than expected assessment of the region's economy but left the door open for policy easing. The euro bounced from a two-week low against the greenback after Draghi said the euro zone economy was likely to recover this year, although the outlook remained vulnerable to downside risks. He spoke after the ECB kept rates unchanged at 1 percent. While the euro initially rose after Draghi's comments, the "market reaction soon became muted because the ECB really did not change anything and it was pretty much status quo," said Mark McCormick, G-10 currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. "ECB action is still possible," he said. " ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Small changes after volatile trading - Core bonds traded volatile due to economic data and bond auctions. The Fed had the final saying. The FOMC statement showed that the Fed was slightly more optimistic on growth and the governors more hawkish in their rate forecasts. However, policy remains unchanged and Bernanke kept the door for more QE open. - Currencies: Fed doesn't help the dollar - On Wednesday, trading in most major currency cross rates was confined to recent ranges. EUR/USD is holding near the recent highs. The Fed kept a soft tone and this was a slightly negative for the dollar. Sterling lost temporary ground as Q1 GDP data showed that the UK has slipped back into recession. However, the EUR/GBP 0.8222 resistance did its job. ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a modestly brighter assessment of the economy's prospects and few clues on the path of monetary policy, as it reiterated that interest rates likely will not rise until at least late 2014. The central bank described the economy as expanding moderately, just as it did in March, and said the unemployment rate had declined but remains elevated. In March, it had said the jobless rate had declined "notably." But its statement after a two-day meeting was slightly more upbeat than its March announcement. Fed policymakers nodded to "some signs of improvement" in the housing sector and, while repeating that they expect moderate economic growth in coming quarters, said the recovery should then "pick up gradually." "To support a stronger economic recovery ...

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on Tuesday that will likely show the central bank is slightly more upbeat on the economy but in little hurry to raise borrowing costs. Investors wishing for clues into the prospect of a further easing of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank may be disappointed. U.S. economic growth has been just firm enough to weaken the case for additional unconventional stimulus through Fed purchases of government or mortgage bonds. Still, the Fed's policy-setting panel will probably try to curb any premature market expectations for eventual interest rate hikes by repeating that the benchmark federal funds rate is likely to remain near zero until at least late 2014. "There won't be much to keep the Fed from their accommodative policies for ...

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may appear slightly more upbeat on the economy on Wednesday, though investors should not mistake this cautious optimism for any desire to raise interest rates soon. Instead, central bank officials will probably reiterate their expectations that official borrowing costs will remain near zero until at least late 2014, and leave open the option to ease policy further if the economy worsens. "The meeting tomorrow is unlikely to provide any new clues to the Fed's next actions, rather leaving open the possibility of new measures depending on the economic outlook," said Richard Gilhooly, a bond market strategist at TD Securities. Investors wishing for clues to the prospect of a further easing of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank may be disappointed, ...

(Reuters) - The euro and the Australian dollar eased on Friday after Chinese growth data disappointed traders already positioning for a strong showing, but other Chinese data came mostly in line with expectations, limiting the downside. The currency markets showed no immediate reaction to news that North Korea's much hyped long-range rocket apparently crashed into the sea a few minutes after launch on Friday. China's annual economic growth slowed to 8.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012 from 8.9 percent in the previous quarter, falling short of economists' forecast of 8.3 percent and well below an improbably high 9 percent expectation that swirled in markets and boosted risk assets on Thursday. This saw the euro slip to $1.3176 from a one-week high of $1.3213 on Thursday, keeping the ...

The Week Ahead Highlights QE or not QE? BOJ under pressure to ease No more support from the ECB Will the UK avoid a recession? Market Moves: Key Levels QE or not QE? The release of the FOMC minutes earlier this week and speeches by Fed officials have resulted in markets reducing their expectations of additional easing. However, today's disappointing jobs figures (120K in headline NFP vs. cons. 205K) have brought the speculation of more stimulus back into focus. To illustrate the extent of the negative surprise in the NFP print, the lowest estimate was for the addition of 175K payrolls out of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. QE3 chatter is making its rounds again in the markets and the US dollar has tumbled against most of the majors as heightened speculation ...