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Allow Us To Trade ShortTitle:
Forex - Gold Surges but FX Remains Range-Bound
Forex News and Events:
Regional Asian markets sold off today and oil prices moved sharply higher as markets remained focused the situation in the Middle East / North Africa. Risk sentiment dropped overnight as news on MENA tensions including speculation of all out civil war in Libya, growing tensions in Saudi Arabia and reports that Saudi tanks are rolling into Bahrain all carried over into the Asian session reversing the recent rally in stock. The situation remains highly uncertain. EURCHF fell down to 1.2760 while USDJPY moved back to 81.90. Gold traded up to a new record high at $1,434.38 as Brent crude climbed to $116.76. Interestingly, the S&P is now sitting on the 6 month bullish trend support, a break a lower could trigger further downside. With all eyes now focused on events in ...
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U.S. corn dips after rally, soybeans tick higher
(Reuters) - U.S. corn futures edged lower on Tuesday as the market took a breather after rallying for two straight sessions on growing concern over tight supplies and strong global demand.
Wheat gained as buyers continued to cover supplies, while soybeans rose in early Asian trade after declining in the last session.
FUNDAMENTALS
* In February, corn posted its third straight monthly rise, but wheat fell 6.9 percent in the same month, its first monthly decline in three months.
* Worries about turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East have prompted an exodus of investors from grains since mid-February. Open interest has dropped roughly 12 percent in both soybeans and wheat and 4 percent in corn since the middle of February, backing off record highs set early in the month.
* The wheat ...
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Forex - Waiting on Mr. Bernanke
Forex News and Events:
As oil prices continue to ease and economic data improves, risk aversion has slowly melted from FX markets. GBPUSD had enough momentum to break the 1.6300 barrier taking near term stops with it, while EURUSD found its sea legs right before the European open, climbing rapidly to 1.3830. Asian regional indices were able to sustain their three day rally, with the Nikkei rising 1.22%. Even a warning from the CBRC head that Chinese lending growth has been rising too quickly and real-estate prices were increasingly irrational wasn’t able to dampen investors’ appetite as the CNY fixed 50 pips lower against the USD at 6.5706 and the Shanghai Composite was mildly higher 0.48%.
As was widely expected, the RBA held rates at 4.75% and in their statement acknowledged that ...
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Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on March 1st, 2011
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD got out of its neutral zone 0.7521-0.7560 from the bottom, allowing us to trade again short positions. The next support is at 0.7470. We maintain to trade only short positions as far as the pair is moving into its bearish channel. The breakout of 0.7470 will give a new sell signal. The next support is at 0.7428 (level 0%).
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of February 28th, 2011
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Forex - Oil Prices Ease But Inflation Remains
Forex News and Events:
Risk aversion let up slightly during the Asian session providing some relief to regional stock markets and allowing risk-correlated FX trades to gain some ground. EURUSD traded between 1.3785-1.3830 while USDJPY traded to 81.65- 82.10, moving on a less negative CPI number release. The oil market has fully priced in Libya’s nearly 2 million barrel/day oil supply as offline - but barring further contagion, we believe that the oil trade has limited upside in the near future. That said, should significant unrest spread to regional neighbors Saudi Arabia and/or Algeria, then prices of course will have major upside. Interestingly, we suspect that Asian countries which have already been hit by massively elevated soft/agro commodity prices are also susceptible to higher ...
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Spain hopes for stronger EFSF fund, Weber has doubts
(Reuters) - Spain is confident euro zone leaders will agree to strengthen their multi-billion euro rescue fund at a summit next month, but European Central Bank member Axel Weber said enough has been done already.
In an interview with Reuters, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Madrid was convincing markets Spain was getting its economy in order and he was confident Germany would support a stronger euro zone fund despite Chancellor Angela Merkel's domestic problems.
"We are winning the battle, but I still have my guard up because we have to implement all the reforms that have generated more confidence," Zapatero told Reuters Insider television.
The euro zone's 17 leaders will meet in Brussels on March 11 to discuss strengthening the European Financial Stability ...
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When Money Dies
I didn’t come up with the phrase, “when money dies,” though I like it a lot. The phrase captures an important idea. It is that money – I refer to that paper kind issued by governments – has a finite life. At some point, it becomes worthless, or dies.
The death of a currency is often a protracted affair. It often takes decades. And as it unfolds, the people who experience it hardly believe it. That is the tale told by Adam Fergusson in his book When Money Dies: The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany.
First published in 1975, it had been out-of-print for years and much sought after. A used copy on Amazon cost $300 recently.
The book is a history of the death of the German mark in the 1920s. It is also a scary reminder of the devastating ...
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GCI Financial Daily Market Commentary: 02/22/2011
USD
Risk appetite declined sharply during the Asia session as tensions in Libya increased, New Zealand was struck by another powerful earthquake, and Moody's lowered the outlook on Japan's sovereign rating from stable to negative. Sentiment was not helped by a sudden (but brief) 30-pip spike in USDJPY as the Asia session got underway. EURUSD has traded 1.3563-1.3685, and USDJPY 82.84-83.54. Asian stocks are down about 1-2%, and US stock futures are also pointing lower. After first breaking above $1410/oz, gold slipped as the risk-averse mood took hold, and is trading back below $1400/oz at the time of writing. Signs of growing unrest in the Middle East kept the price of crude elevated, despite the risk-off backdrop. In the US, Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, often seen as a ...
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Q+A: What steps might the euro zone take on its debt crisis?
(Reuters) - Euro zone countries are working on what they call a comprehensive package of measures to resolve their year-long debt crisis, aiming for a deal by the end of March.
An EU summit on February 4 produced no breakthrough, with Berlin and Paris introducing new proposals for boosting competitiveness across the region, prompting disagreement among states.
Another summit is due on March 11 to sustain momentum toward a deal, with the complete package expected to be finalized at another summit on March 24-25 in Brussels.
Below are ideas that have been discussed formally or informally and could be included. Some measures face strong opposition from Germany and appear unlikely to make it.
INCREASING THE EFFECTIVE LENDING CAPACITY OF THE EFSF
There is a strong chance of this step being ...
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