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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
Extends the near-term recovery above initial barriers at 1.2750 zone, after temporary footstep was found at 1.2640, last Friday. Bounce from here briefly broke above 1.2800 barrier, also Fib 23.6%, where descending trendline, connecting 1.3282/1.3177 tops, limited gains at 1.2811, with corrective easing on overbought hourly studies under way. Dips need to be contained at 1.2760/40 zone, to maintain positive near-term tone for possible fresh attack at upper barriers. Lift above 1.2800, to face significant resistances at 1.2886, Fib 38.2% and 1.2900 zone, clearance of which to confirm near-term base and open way for stronger retracement of 1.3282/1.2641 downleg, with 1.2950/80 seen next. On the downside, loss f 1.2740 and psychological support at 1.2700, would turn focus lowercase ...
Title:
Euro Succeeds Short Squeeze
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather
- Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode.
- Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze
- On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...
Title:
Holiday in Europe Keeps Trading Subdued
Forex News and Events:
While the news flow emanating from Europe has slowed, proving a temporary respite from risky assets, the pressure on Greek banks is growing. After market chatter and media reports, the ECB confirmed that some Greek banks had turned to the Bank of Greece for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) pending recapitalization. The recapitalization that was to be finalized 'soon', and in theory would allow troubled Greek banks to return to normal ECB funding channels. However, with the other story that massive deposits are being withdrawn from Greek banks (€700bn ins May 6th election) circulating, the erosion of core capital means the prospects of these institution quickly returning to ECB seem unlikely. The recent ECB 3 year LTRO operation was an attempt to build a firewall ...
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Brent rise boosts premium to slumping U.S. crude
Brent oil edged higher on Tuesday, snapping three days of declines and pushing its premium to slumping U.S. crude back above $18 a barrel, as supportive German economic growth helped counter political turmoil in Greece.
Anticipation that inventory reports will show U.S. crude stocks rose an eighth straight time last week, adding to record stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, helped pressure U.S. crude and increase its price deficit to Brent, brokers and traders said.
The approach of the June Brent contract's expiration on Wednesday also helped raise the premium to U.S. June crude to $18.26 a barrel based on settlements.
Brent's premium to U.S. crude pushed above $18 for the first time since April 16, when news of this week's planned reversal of the Seaway crude pipeline broke.
The pipeline ...
Title:
China’s growth engine cooling down
Forex News and Events:
As anticipated in Friday’s newsletter, China cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio for the second time this year. Shielded by easing inflation, Chinese authorities relaxed their grip on banks’ cash reserves parked at the PBoC through a 50 basis point cut effective starting May 18. This measure will allow the RRR to drop to 20% for the main national financial institutions and will release an estimated CNY 400bn in capital into the market. The move came after the publication of a weaker-than-expected Chinese Trade balance on Thursday, indicating exports and imports grew by 4.9% and 0.3% y-o-y respectively, a far cry from the 10 and 11 percent goals for the year. The near-zero import growth could be explained by the piling up of metal domestic inventories and might affect ...
Title:
Germany To The Rescue?
This is the fifth day without a firm government in place for Greece; if a coalition is not found soon then we could be heading back to the polls, which open up the possibility of a prolonged period of Greek political instability. There was some hope this morning of the Conservatives forming a coalition with the Socialists and other moderate pro-bailout parties that would have a mandate to govern until 2014. This helped to lift the euro from its daily lows; however for a sustained rally in risk we need to get a firm commitment that a 'moderate' pro-European government will take the reins of power in Athens. Unless that happens then the markets are likely to remain jittery.
Mixed signals
The markets are particularly cloudy today. Some bullish reversal patterns that formed yesterday were ...
Title:
Euro snaps 8-session drop, up from 3-1/2-month low
The euro gained against the dollar on Thursday, snapping eight straight sessions of declines and bouncing from its recent 3-1/2-month low as stress in Spanish debt markets eased and Greece secured funds to repay its bondholders.
The tempering of the dual threats of a Greek insolvency and the country's potential exit from the euro also had the single currency rebounding from a mid-February low against the Japanese yen.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to release a scheduled payment. The allocation allows the country to meet near-term bond redemptions, helping the euro stabilize after an eight-day sell off.
"The EFSF agreement could be viewed as euro-positive, and data in the U.S. and overseas was not negative, ...
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Copper pushes up despite weaker Chinese data
Copper rose for the first time in six sessions Thursday, recovering from the prior day's three-week low below $8,000 a tonne after a double-dose of upbeat data from the United States helped draw in buyers.
Copper rose in tandem with global equities, which were up for the first time in seven sessions, after data showing a fall in weekly claims for jobless benefits and a record surge in exports in March offset weak trade data from top copper consumer China.
Title:
Euro rebounds from multi-month lows
The euro rose against the dollar for the first time in nine sessions on Thursday, bouncing from its recent 3-1/2-month low as stress in Spanish debt markets eased slightly and after Greece secured funds to repay its bondholders.
The tempering of the threat of a Greek insolvency and the country's possible exit from the euro also had the single currency rebounding from a mid-February low against the Japanese yen.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to release a scheduled payment. The allocation allows the country to meet near term bond redemptions, helping the euro stabilize after an eight day sell off.
"The EFSF agreement could be viewed as euro-positive, and data in the U.S. and overseas was not negative, but ...
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