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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 08/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The salvation of the country, remaining in the euro, means great sacrifices"
- Evangelos Venizelos, Greek finance minister
Greece’s government is preparing a final version of an agreement on budget and structural measures required for a 130 billion euro bailout, said a Greek government official.
USD
"Markets would love to see some certainty, and we don't have any of that at the moment"
- Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of discussion on a financial aid package for Greece.
GBP
"After a stronger-than-expected December, these latest figures are rather sobering"
- Helen Dickinson, head of retail at KPMG
U.K. retail sector contracted in January as shoppers limited their ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 07/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
17-nation currency slipped against most of its peers before Greece's PM Papademos meets with politicians from three leading parties as officials still cannot agree on debt reduction plan. The meeting scheduled on Tuesday. Greece representatives and creditors still have to agree on EUR 600 million of fiscal measures for this year. Euro declined 0.2% to USD 1.3109 in London trade. Currently EUR/USD is trading at USD 1.3116.
USD
US President Obama ordered to freeze all Iran's central bank and governments assets deposited in US or in any overseas branch of US entity, announced the White House today. President Obama claimed Iran current activities to be a serious threat to international financial system. Before the order, only assets owned by sanctioned Iranian ...
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Aussie Finds Support in Forex Trading
Aussie is finding support in forex trading today as Forex traders scramble to make up for the fact that they had priced in a 0.25% cut to the interest rate. Instead of cutting, though, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.25%. The central bank considers the economic progress Down Under to be sufficient to allow for yields to remain higher.
Aussie’s support is mostly against the US dollar, though, and even then the currency pair is mostly rangebound. Aussie is also slightly higher against the euro and the UK pound. European currencies are managing to hold their own right to a certain extent on the hopes that Greece will agree to austerity measures needed to get the bailout deal done. While there are some snags, and Greek policymakers led by PM Lucas Papademos are scrambling ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 05/02/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 05/02/2012
U.S. Review
Off to a Good Start for the Year
The employment report for January showed that 243,000 jobs were added with the unemployment rate declining slightly to 8.3 percent. The details of the report however, suggest that unseasonably warm weather may be playing a role in the stronger job gains.
The ISM-Manufacturing Index posted a marginal improvement in January as new orders jumped for the month. Export orders also posted a nice increase suggesting that the effects of a Eurozone slowdown have yet to affect U.S. manufacturers.
Stronger-Than-Expected Job Gains to Start the Year
This week's economic data continued to point toward sustained economic growth. The employment situation improved at a better-than-expected pace in ...
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Central Banks - Still Easing for Now
Economic Data Analysis
Central Banks - Still Easing for Now
Ongoing negotiations over Greek bail out, with ECB standing pat ahead of next LTRO.
MPC likely to continue QE with further £50bn, but difficult judgements lie ahead.
RBA to cut rates this week; easing Chinese inflation pressures could herald PBoC loosening.
Another week closes with the promise of a deal on the Greek PSI debt swap. The urgency for such a deal is rising with a hard deadline of 13 February approaching. The coming week will be a question of sequencing. The coming days should see Greece agree with the Troika measures to address deficit target slippage. This needs to be done by Monday's Euro Area finance ministers meeting so it can approve Greece's second bail out package, in turn necessary to allow the ...
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"Vultures" identify Portuguese debt as next target
Investors known for snapping up distressed debt on the cheap have identified Portugal as their next target but some of these so-called "vultures" say they will wait until a Greek bond swap deal is completed before striking.
Many traditional bond investors, such as funds that follow ratings benchmarks, were forced to sell Portuguese debt after it was downgraded to "junk" by Standard & Poor's last month.
Others, including some banks, simply fled the volatile market fearing a debt restructuring or under pressure from their shareholders to cut losses on their Portuguese debt holdings, sending the country's bond yields to euro-era highs.
That left the door open to a specialized type of investors, often called "vultures" or "vampires," who look to buy bonds when prices hit bottom, hoping to ...
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Forex - Global PMIs Spark Optimisms Over Growth
Forex News and Events:
After a slight pullback in earlier European trades, risk appetite cautiously in Asian session crept back into the markets. EURUSD was range bound between 1.3160 and 1.3200 while AUDUSD continued its strong rally running to 1.0757. Asia’s regional indices were green across the board with the Hang Seng up 1.94% and Shanghais 1.96%. The catalyst was the generally positive manufacturing PMI prints globally which suggested that the global slowdown might now be as deep as originally feared. But more importantly for FX traders, this should give European policy makers more time. With growth, comes additional revenues which increase capital market investors confidence--two things crucial to the survival of the Europe. In fact, should Eurozone growth unexpectedly rally back ...
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Manufacturing Growth Continues
I have to tell you what’s on my mind this morning after watching the price action again yesterday… I know, it’s just me, and no one else in the writing/analyst world will tell you this, because they have no proof… I don’t either, but that never stops me from saying what’s on my mind regarding these markets now, does it?
After watching time and time again, the overseas markets take the dollar to the woodshed, and then when the New York traders come in, the price action all gets reversed. I thought to myself, “Self, doesn’t it look like New York traders have orders from the top of the house to make sure the dollar doesn’t fall off a cliff? Why, yes, self, it does look like that!” Now let’s get back to reality…
Here’s an illustration that shows us just how dumb the markets are these days… ...
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Treasury may let investors pay to lend to U.S. government
The U.S. government may ask investors to pay for the privilege and safety of holding short-term debt issued by its Treasury Department.
In response to clamor from investors, the Treasury said on Wednesday it was looking closely at allowing negative-yield auctions. This would mean bidders who want the security of U.S. government debt in the face of global insecurity, might have to pay a premium for it.
Doing so would allow the U.S. government to benefit from something that is already occurring on the secondary market, where investors have accepted negative yields in recent months to protect their cash from financial strains.
Remarkably, Wall Street is asking to be able to pay a premium for U.S. debt even after the United States lost its prized AAA rating last year and as the government ...
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