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Agreement Between The GreekTitle:
Greek Chaos Continues But Solution Ultimately Found
- While waiting for the Greek election on 17 June we are likely to see continued high uncertainty and continued high stress in the markets. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Amid this uncertainty, Greek citizens are likely to withdraw more money from their banks and this could escalate into a real bank run.
- A major game of chicken has started between the EU on the one hand and Greek politicians on the other.
- The EU is likely to stand firm on its demands for Greece to deliver austerity and give only a few concessions. The rethoric from the left coalition party Syriza is likely to continue to be fiercely against the EU as it is aiming to become the biggest party and get 50 bonus mandates for this.
- We look at three different post-election scenarios. ...
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European Market Update : 21/05/2012
Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €809M borrowed in overnight loan facility €839M prior; €762.4B parked in deposit facility v €785.1B prior
(JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 14.1% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 26.7% prior
(IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.4% prior
(DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
(HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.5%e v 6.9% prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 14th (RUB): 6.93T v 6.88T prior
(ES) Spain Central Bank (BOS): Mar Bad Loan Ratio at 8.37% v 8.16% prior; - Lending -3.1% y/ym, Deposits -4.2% y/y
(IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -14.3% v -13.2% prior
(IT) Italy ...
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Oil falls on euro zone worries, weak economic data
Brent crude oil slumped more than 2 percent on Thursday, touching the lowest price since December, as investors avoided risky assets due to mounting fears that turmoil in Greece could spread to other stressed euro zone economies.
U.S. crude was down by less than Brent, which reduced Brent's premium against U.S. crude to below $15, from above $19 the previous session, as owners of the U.S. Seaway pipeline announced just after midday that its reversal was completed as expected.
The initial flow of crude that will head for the main U.S. refining center in Houston was to occur by the weekend, a development aimed at easing the supply glut of U.S. crude at the delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma. Easing that glut should narrow the premium that Brent has enjoyed over U.S. crude.
But market focus ...
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Oil down, pares early losses
Oil prices recovered from early lows on Wednesday, as positive U.S. industrial output data and a weekly government report on U.S. inventories showing a much smaller build than reported by the industry, lifted gloom about global demand.
U.S. oil prices briefly swung into positive territory, recovering from losses of more than $2 a barrel early on Wednesday, after weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed inventories rose broadly in line with forecasts.
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Spotlight on the Sterling
Forex News and Events:
Yesterday’s European session was a breather for the Euro area as German GDP came in much better than expected at 0.5% q-o-q. The strength of Germany’s numbers pulled EU’s GDP higher to 0.0% against a forecast -0.2%, avoiding a technical recession after last quarter’s -0.3% GDP. Nevertheless, both German and Euro zone economic sentiments were lower, underscoring a fading institutional optimism over economic health. GDP for the biggest European economies after Germany were worrisome, with France generating no growth in the first quarter of 2012 while Italy and Spain’s economies contracted by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively over the same period. The situation in Greece is still moving towards a new round of elections with Independent Greeks party leader Kammemos announcing ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 15/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· French GDP (QoQ) (FRA, 6:30 GMT)
· German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 7:00 GMT)
· French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (FRA, 7:45 GMT)
· Trade Balance (GB, 9:30 GMT)
· ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· German ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER, 10:00 GMT)
· GDP (QoQ) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· Core CPI (YoY) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· Retail Sales (MoM) U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (U.S., 14:00 GMT)
Foreign direct investment in China fell for a sixth month in April, as faltering global growth and renewed turmoil in financial markets dented company spending in Asia’s biggest economy. Inbound investment ...
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The Political Turmoil Continues in Greece, BoE to Announce Rates and APF for May
Another day comes for the old continent and still Greeks cannot find common grounds regarding the formation of the new government, where after Antonio Samaras failed to form a coalition government earlier this week, the leader of the leftist party Syriza, Alexis Tspiras, also failed yesterday, leaving the job in the hands of the PASOK party, led by the former Greek finance minister.
As the political conflict remains obvious in Greece, the tension continues to be significant in the market, where fears and debt concerns are still weighing sharply on the overall sentiment, with expectations negativity will return for the third consecutive day as Greek leaders still cannot reach an agreement in regards to the creation of the coalition government, which in result will trigger a fresh general ...
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Political Situation in Greece Drives Risky Assets lower
Forex News and Events:
Considering the risk building in Europe, the EUR has held up surprisingly well. However, given the following headlines from Greece, we doubt how much longer the single currency can remain resilient. Conservative leader Samaras stated “I tried to form a coalition government with two goals: that the country remain in the euro and bailout policies change to include growth measures,” the lack of success after 6 hrs of talks in Athens means he will hand over the mandate back to the president. This also means that the attempt to form a government will now be passed to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, who has vowed to derail the current bailout path. Comments from Tsipras overnight has rattled the markets nerves as the Syriza leader Alex stated that he will annul the ...
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Greek Election Result Worry Traders
Forex News and Events:
A wave of anti-austerity election results has shifted the market’s attention away from the weak US payroll reports and has sent traders in search of safe-havens. France Socialist leader, Francois Hollande defeated President Sarkozy. Frances's new socialist President Hollande has expressed his distaste for the EU fiscal treaty and vowed to hold back France's vote until additional growth measures are included. However, we suspect Hollande will be more realistic with his insistence on changes in the fiscal pact by balancing demands with practical expectations of the bond market. Moving forward, we don’t expect the new president to damage their cost of capital and are already hear advisors tone down Hollande rhetoric. On the other hand the situation in Greece is ...
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