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Against The Euro And The UkTitle:
Inertia Will Sink The Euro Again
The G8 Summit achieved very little in public which was no real surprise, but there was also an apparent lack of urgency surrounding the Euro-zone situation which was a much greater surprise given a sharp deterioration in the financial sector last week. Where was the urgency for fresh action to help support the Euro banking sector? The absence must surely indicate that Euro-zone and G8 leaders, while paying lip-service to the current strategy, have effectively moved on and are actively planning the next stage of the crisis.
Fear is likely to dominate in the short term and this is likely to keep strong defensive demand for the dollar and yen. In these circumstances, there is no real chance of a sustained Euro rally with 2012 lows likely to be seen. Bond markets will be watched very closely ...
Title:
European Market Update : 21/05/2012
Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €809M borrowed in overnight loan facility €839M prior; €762.4B parked in deposit facility v €785.1B prior
(JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 14.1% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 26.7% prior
(IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.4% prior
(DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
(HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.5%e v 6.9% prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 14th (RUB): 6.93T v 6.88T prior
(ES) Spain Central Bank (BOS): Mar Bad Loan Ratio at 8.37% v 8.16% prior; - Lending -3.1% y/ym, Deposits -4.2% y/y
(IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -14.3% v -13.2% prior
(IT) Italy ...
Title:
Euro gets respite, but stays under pressure
(Reuters) - The euro traded firm above recent four-month low on Monday as some investors who had bet on the currency falling booked profits, but deep-seated concerns about financial turmoil in Greece and Spain will keep it under pressure.
The common currency earned respite from this month's relentless bout of selling, as speculators who had piled up a record amount of bets against it cut some of those positions.
The euro was steady at $1.2781, well above Friday's four-month low of $1.2642 struck on trading platform EBS. The euro has managed to stay above its 2012 low of $1.2624, a major support, a break of which would take the single currency back down to levels not seen since August 2010.
Traders cited sell-side stops above $1.2835 with plenty of offers ahead of that level, all of ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
Title:
Euro Rebounds But Still Under Pressure
The euro (EUR) edged higher to 1.2812 rebounding from a four-month low at 1.2641 against the US dollar. The single currency tumbled on Friday on concerns over Greece’s political uncertainty as well as growing instability in the Spanish banking sector. European leaders of G8 met during the weekend to discuss steps needed to fight Europe’s debt crisis and reaffirmed the importance that Greece remains in the eurozone. G8 leaders also focused on ways to stimulate eurozone growth but no detailed plans on how to resolve the problems were announced. But the single currency remains under pressure as investors are worried about a messy Greek default and exit from the euro ahead of a repeat election in June 17.
The US dollar (USD) stumbles against a basket of currencies as sentiment in the market ...
Title:
Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
Title:
Gold jumps, heads for biggest 2-day gain since October
Gold rose more than 1 percent on Friday, on track for its largest two-day gain since October, boosted by investors' consolidation of positions ahead of the weekend and a stronger euro.
The second day of gains helped bolster confidence, which had been shaken by gold's fall earlier this week to a four-month low at $1,527 an ounce, near critical long-term support levels.
But traders remained cautious given how the escalating crisis in Europe has driven the single currency lower this month.
"There is still no conviction in the market. If gold was a safe haven, it should be higher. Physical demand is mediocre and the Europeans want the dollar, which is why it is so strong," a physical U.S. gold trader said.
The psychologically important $1,600-per-ounce mark remained elusive.
It got close, ...
Title:
Risk Appetite, Better Situation Help UK Pound
UK pound is being helped on two fronts today. General risk appetite, with the focus on the Facebook IPO, is helping the sterling against the US dollar. On the other hand, pound is higher against the euro, as concerns about what’s happening in the eurozone make the pound a preferred choice as a European safe haven currency.
Right now, pound is gaining against the US dollar as some disappointing news (including the unemployment claims data released this week) provides a foundation for risk appetite. Also providing a foundation for risk appetite is the Facebook IPO. Equities are responding well to the excitement of one of the biggest IPOs of all time, and that is helping the pound.
Against the euro, pound is gaining in large part because it’s not the euro. With Moody’s unleashing downgrades ...
Title:
Gold rises 1 percent, eyes weekly gain, as euro recovers
Gold prices rose more than 1 percent on Friday, building on the previous session's hefty gains, as a recovery in the euro prompted some buying of the precious metal, with shorts covering amid expectations prices could rise further.
Gold posted its biggest one-day gain since January 25 on Thursday, recovering some ground lost during its longest run of losses in five months. Its reversal has put it on track to end the week 0.4 percent higher.
Spot gold was up 1 percent at $1,589.16 an ounce at 1148 GMT, having earlier touched a high of $1,594.10, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up $14.40 an ounce at $1,589.30.
The euro recovered from a four-month lows against the dollar to move into positive territory, taking some pressure off gold, though concerns over a Greek euro exit ...
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