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Against A Trade WeightedTitle:
Speculation On Grexit Continues To Hammer The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds profit from euro debt crisis
- Concerns about Greece and Spain underpinned the ongoing rally of global core bonds. The German 10-year yield fell below 1.50%. Intra-EMU yield spreads versus Germany widened substantially. Today, the eco calendar is enticing. If no euro debt crisis news acts as a circuit breaker, the eco data may for once drive the price action.
- Currencies: Speculation on Grexit continues to hammer the euro.
- At the start of the new trading week, the Greek crisis remained the key factor for currency trading. With no visibility on the outcome of the EMU crisis, the easiest way for the euro is south. EUR/USD set a new correction low. EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.8000. This morning, strong German ...
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European Market Update : 01/05/2012
UK PMI Manufacturing comes in below expectations but holds above the 50 level
Economic Data
(AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts Cash Target by 50bps to 3.75%; more than expected
(PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e
(JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 92.0% v 78.2% prior
(IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$13.9B v -$13.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.7% v + 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.3% v 20.7% prior
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.5 prior
(AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 99.5 v 99.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -4.2% v 2.1% prior
(DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.5 v 51.5e (lowest since Dec 2011)
(DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 61.8 v 53.0 prior (12-month ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 17/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"It is looking more and more likely that Spain is going to have some form of a bailout"
- Lyn Graham-Taylor, Rabobank strategist
Spain's cost of borrowing on the international debt markets breached the level of 6 per cent for 10-year bonds on Monday, mounting pressure on the European Central Bank to conduct new round of bond purchases.
USD
"There is no sign that higher fuel prices have damaged consumer sentiment and spending"
- Jeremy Lawson, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas
U.S. month on month retail sales rose by more than expected in March, said the Census Bureau on Monday. Total retail sales increased 0.8 per cent the previous month after increasing 1.0 per cent in February.
GBP
" is not a universal signal of a housing-market recovery"
- Miles ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 16/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Euro Area officials are going to Washington this week in order to demand larger war chest from overseas partners to prevent debt crisis as Spanish government struggles with surging borrowing costs. US though insists Europe can tackle crisis by its own financial firewall while Euro Zone representatives claim they already have done enough and deserve global help.
USD
Temasek Holdings is preparing to buy a part of Goldman Sachs Group's stake of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Goldman Sachs is going to sell 3.55 billion of ICBC shares valued at USD 2.5 billion or about 4% of total amount traded in Hong Kong. ICBC shares lost 0.8% in Hong Kong on the news. Temasek has been raising holdings in China Construction Bank and Bank of China.
GBP
UK managed ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 29/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Thousands of people in Spain are going participate in the general strike against the new reform. The reform stipulates reduction of the maximum severance payment to 33 days' remuneration from 45 days currently provided. The measure is aimed at combating with unemployment and saving billions of Euros for the country. However, labour unions claim the legislation will ease firing for the companies.
USD
US unemployment claims increased sharply last week to 359K despite positive sentiment on the market and analyst consensus forecast of 351K. The latest reading indicates a sharp increase of this indicator, as the previous week's reading stood at 348K.
GBP
The average house price in the UK declined by 1% this month while taken annualized rate home prices ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 28/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Magyar Nemzeti Bank may keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7% for a third straight month, analysts said on Tuesday. The central bank is likely to stick to highest interest rate in European Union due to a delay in receiving IMF loan. The Forint strengthened 0.3% versus Euro to HUF 290.
USD
US February core durable goods orders reading was in line with the forecast at 1.6%, after a sharp fall of 3.0% in January. Durable goods orders rose by 2.2% last month, underperforming versus the forecast of 3.0%.
GBP
British FTSE 100 declined on Wednesday as data showed the revised British GDP in the 4th quarter declined 0.3% compared to previous estimate of 0.2%. Banks and miners drove the index lower with Barclays PLC and Lloyds Banking Group PLC each ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/03/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Figures clearly show that the recession in the euro zone is far from over"
- Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING Group
Euro area services and manufacturing output fell by more than expected this month, a sign the economy has slipped into recession.
USD
"Decline in unemployment claims is another indication that the labor market is healing. That's good news for the March payroll report"
- Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 348 thousand in the week ended March 17 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"The data puts a real dent in hopes that the consumer may be perking up appreciably"
- Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 22/03/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Euro Area region faced a faster contraction in private sector activity in March, highlighting worries the area may fall back into downturn. Composite PMI dropped from 49.3 in previous month to 48.7 in March reaching three month record low. Economists questioned by Marketwatch predicted the composite PMI to climb to 49.6. Service PMI fell from 48.8 to 48.7 and manufacturing index edged down from 49.0 to 47.7.
USD
After a slight decline to 353K two weeks ago, US unemployment claims kept sliding to a four-year-low at 348K last week. Economists say that this reading points to a robust recovery of the US labor market and the economy in general.
GBP
UK retail sales declined more than analysts predicted in previous month as households curbed spending. Retail sales ...
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Analysis: Turning point in the currency war
(Reuters) - A counteroffensive of sorts may be underway this year in what has seemed like a one-sided "global currency war" as developing economies slow, western money-printing pauses and the heat comes out of pumped-up emerging market currencies.
The three-year-old "war", as Brazil dubs the devaluationist policies of developed nations seeking relief from home-grown credit crunches, may well just come full circle and burn itself out as a result.
But the reverse course of emerging currency depreciation carries its own significant risks, from skewing investment decisions to aggravating trade diplomacy.
What's more, it's Japan's success this year in finally weakening its supercharged yen, by fresh rounds of money-printing from its central bank, which may prove pivotal by disturbing the ...
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