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AfternoonTitle:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview: 18/04/2011
Previous session overview
The dollar dropped Monday after Standard & Poor's slashed its outlook on the U.S.'s government debt rating to negative from stable.
The dollar fell swiftly against both the euro and yen after the outlook was revised, but has since stabilized and even made up some ground against the euro. The euro was at about USD1.4285 in morning trading in New York. The dollar was at JPY82.56.
The S&P headline quickly drew attention back to the ongoing debate in the U.S. about how to reduce its debt burden. S&P cut the outlook, which is a long-term view on the government's ability to repay its debt, because of uncertainty over whether Republicans and Democrats can reach a meaningful long-term plan to reduce the country's debt burden, said David Beers, global head of sovereign ...
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Oil up on rosier U.S. consumer sentiment, China
Oil rose on Friday, with Brent crude surging past $123 a barrel, as improving U.S. consumer confidence and industrial production eased concerns about rising fuel costs.
Concerns about the impact of rising fuel costs on the economic recovery and consumption hit prices earlier in the week, knocking Brent off 32-month highs. It had risen to $127 a barrel on expectations the conflict in Libya would lead to a prolonged disruption of the OPEC nation's supplies.
A U.S. government report showed underlying inflation pressures remained contained in March, while a survey showed April consumer sentiment rose more than expected. Investors have been concerned higher energy and food costs would slow consumer spending.
A gauge of manufacturing in economic powerhouse New York State rose in April to the ...
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Euro lower but seen resilient next week
The euro slipped on Friday but its uptrend of the past three months still looks intact, with the prospect of more interest rate rises from the European central bank seen offsetting concerns about the ability of some poorer euro zone countries to pay their debts.
The euro is up nearly 8.0 percent against the U.S. dollar and 10.4 percent versus the yen in 2011, helped by interest rate differentials with the short end of the euro zone yield curve significantly above the U.S. yield curve,
Inflation accelerated in Europe and Asia in March while the United States bucked the global trend with underlying price pressures largely in check, leaving monetary policy set by the ECB and the Federal Reserve diverging paths.
"You have two central banks with two different monetary policy stances, with ...
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Sterling Rises on Hawkish Comments
The pound was bid this morning versus the euro and the dollar following hawkish comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance.
Earlier today BOE MPC member Andrew Sentance said the decline in inflationary pressures may be only temporary given sterling's deprecation. This could send inflation above 5% and increasing the need for an adjustment higher to the interest rate. Sentance claims that a weak pound has kept inflationary pressures high as imported goods continue to add to inflation levels. A stronger pound would help to counteract rising import prices as this would make imported goods less expensive
Sentance is one of the most hawkish members of the MPC and has voted to raise interest rates at every MPC meeting since June of last year.
Recent ...
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Forex - EURUSD Stays Buoyant In Spite Of Eurozone Debt Issues
Forex News and Events:
It’s been a pretty quiet 24 hours in the FX market; even the news that Moody’s had downgraded its outlook for Ireland to negative has failed to elicit much of a reaction, with EURUSD managing to stay elevated around 1.4450 levels. No doubt yesterday’s weaker jobless claims data has helped dampen the negative impact on EURUSD, but overall it seems that the market is lacking conviction on which way the pair should go from here, and whether the drag of recent political wrangling and monster debt ceiling in the US outweigh the resurgent worries about EU peripheral nations and the viability of the Eurozone. From here, we expect the EUR will be at a slight advantage in this tussle, as stubbornly high inflation readings become the norm, and investors expect further ...
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Instant view: March retail sales up 0.4 pct on gasoline
(Reuters) - Sales at U.S. retailers rose slightly less than expected in March as rising gasoline prices pulled spending away from other segments and receipts from auto dealerships fell, a government report showed, pointing to slower consumer spending in the first quarter.
KEY POINTS:
* Total retail sales increased 0.4 percent, a ninth straight month of gains, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. * March's reading was the weakest since June when sales fell 0.3 percent. February sales were revised up to a 1.1 percent gain from a previously reported 1.0 percent rise. * Economists polled by Reuters had expected retail sales to increase 0.5 percent last month.
COMMENTS:
NICHOLAS COLAS, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT THE CONVERGEX GROUP IN NEW YORK
"The number looks a touch better ...
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Talk of Greek Debt Restructuring Sparks Euro Selling
At lunchtime during the European trading session equities turned lower and the euro was sold across the board prior to the release of US inflationary data and unemployment claims.
After another failed attempt to move above the 1.4520 level, the EUR/USD sold off to a low of 1.4365 before trading back to 1.4375. The EUR/JPY was trading at 119.55 from 120.87 while the Swiss franc strengthened as the EUR/CHF fell to 1.2856 from 1.2949.
Equities were down with the FTSE 100 lower by -1.00% and the DAX sliding by -0.82%.
Sparking the selling were earlier comments by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble who is expecting further analysis on the debt sustainability of Greece to carry its debt load. The potential for the restructuring of Greek debt could be in line if the report shows ...
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Bond market relieved at size of Obama deficit cut
(Reuters) - It lacked details, and quickly drew a crowd of critics across Capitol Hill, but President Barack Obama's $4 trillion deficit cutting plan won over a notoriously skeptical bond market -- at least for now.
Prices on U.S. government debt rose when news of Obama's plan trickled into the market before his speech on Wednesday afternoon as traders applauded the size of his deficit reduction package.
Traders said the president picked an ambitious goal that, if pursued, would require the government to sell fewer bonds in the future and keep the nation in good standing with creditors.
"It's a positive for bonds because it helps to preserve the triple-A credit rating of the United States," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies & Co in New York.
Obama proposed cutting ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview: 14/04/2011
Previous session overview
The dollar was pressured lower against the yen and the euro in Asia Thursday, with continued position adjustments and speculative trade dominating most activity, making trade directionless.
The greenback briefly suffered a modest decline as stop-loss sales were triggered after it broke through a recent low of around JPY83.47, or the 200-day moving average. Short-term speculators were blamed for the fall, as the dollar soon came off the low of JPY82.20 amid an absence of cues to drive the decline below JPY83.
At 0450 GMT, the dollar was at JPY83.57 from JPY83.82 in late New York trade Wednesday. The euro was at USD1.4477 from USD1.4443, while the euro was at JPY121.00 from at JPY121.03.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted ...
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