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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/21/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
The bearish momentum in Wall Street continued last week as indices shed 4%-5% during the week. The sharp declines were expected from the technical analysis point of view, since the main indices broke significant support in their daily charts, which we have analyzed and marked as key levels. The S&P 500 broke the support at 1350 points and reached the target we set at 1300 points, mainly because of the collapse of the financial sector. The volumes are increasing, which means that the sellers are gaining power, in spite improving economic data and the optimism that spread with Facebook trading on Friday. The three main indices are close to the annual opening levels as NASDAQ's next support is at 2400 points.
EUR/USD
We have been mentioning the support at 1.30 as a ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played"
- Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse
Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March.
USD
"What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar"
- Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA
Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...
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Euro zone fears starting to hit trade, financing
The euro zone debt crisis is affecting trade as companies shy away from dealing with firms and banks in countries deemed at risk of contagion, a senior banker said on Thursday.
Tan Kah Chye, London-based global head of trade and working capital at Barclays Bank, said companies were recoiling from doing business on an open-account basis, whereby an exporter ships and delivers goods before the importer pays.
An exporter can greatly reduce the risk attached to such 'buy now, pay later' transactions, which make up an estimated 80 percent of global trade, by buying a bank letter of credit.
But Tan, speaking as chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce's commission on banking, said firms were also nervous about being exposed to banks away from the euro zone periphery that were at risk ...
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Most Asian stocks rise on Japan’s growth, yet fears over Europe persist
Most Asian stocks advanced on Thursday dragged by the better-than-expected growth in Japan and by ECB’s decision to limit its risk exposure by stopping lending to some Greek banks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7% at 13:42 in Tokyo.
Japan`s economy grew 1.0% during this year’s first quarter compared with -0.2% previous, while annually the economy grew 4.1% from -0.7% previous, on solid consumer spending, public investment and some improvement in exports.
Sentiment was also boosted by Japan’s industrial production which rose in March by 1.3% from 1.0% previous, and the Feds pledge to intervene and add stimulus if growth momentum slows and risks to the economic outlook increase.
Meanwhile the European Central Bank decided on Wednesday to limit its risk exposure and temporarily atop ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/16/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
Another day of uncertainty went through Wall Street, as the investors were disappointed by the core retail sales, but encouraged by the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Today they will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes and building permits, as bad news might cause sharper declines. We keep seeing bullish reversals during the trading session, which means that there are buyers who want to take advantage of the recent declines, which might cause a bullish reversal eventually. However, it seems that a break-down of the current week's low will make everybody believe that a downtrend movement has begun.
USD/JPY
The USD reached the support at 79.50 against the JPY, which was a former break-up area. The Yen has failed to break-down this support for several days and ...
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European Market Update : 10/05/2012
Markets eye whether BOE extends its Asset Purchase Program later today; Greece continues to struggle to form new gov't
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.00%, as expected
(ID) Indonesia Central Bank left Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected
(FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -5.7% v -2.2%e
(FR) Bank of France Apr Business Sentiment: 95 v 95e
(FR) France Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.3%e
(FR) France Mar Manufacturing Production M/M:+1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.8%e
(FR) France Mar Central Govt. Balance: -€29.4B v -€24.2B prior
(ES) Spain Mar House transactions Y/Y: -22.7% v -31.8% prior
(CZ) Czech Apr CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e
(CZ) Czech Mar ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/08/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
Wall Street opened the trading week on mixed territory as Dow closed negative NASDAQ and S&P closed positive. On the beginning of the day it looked like the indices were about to continue the bearish momentum from Friday after sharp declines in Europe and Asia. Eventually, the indices managed to rise and close around Friday's closing levels. The S&P 500 opened the trading session around 1360 points, which is the lower boundary of the channel it is moving through and as we mentioned yesterday, the index might continue stamping between 1360 points and 1400 points for a while.
AUD/USD
The crash of the US futures and the European & Asian markets during yesterday morning caused large gaps in most of the currencies pairs, as the USD strengthened due to these declines. Later, ...
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