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US Economic Optimism Rises in September
Data on American economic optimism yesterday signaled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Remains Strong as Debt Auctions Weigh on Euro Zone
The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bullish Tuesday as investors weighed the impact bond auctions in Greece and Italy will have on the euro zone. A sudden wave of risk aversion last week seemed to have helped the greenback surge, and pessimism about sovereign debt in Europe is supporting this pressure. The EUR/USD seems to be floating closer to 1.33 as technical pressures also begin to mount.
Data on ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 12/09/2011
The Weekly Bottom Line : 12/09/2011
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
Policymakers took the floor this week. The main highlight was President Obama’s speech to Congress in which he announced a $450 billion stimulus package aimed at the struggling job market.
The President’s plan is composed of a mix of tax cuts and spending initiatives. The biggest item is a reduction in the payroll tax rate for employees and employers and a payroll tax holiday for employers adding additional workers. Spending priorities are focused on infrastructure and funding to state and local governments to prevent further layoffs.
Should the plan be passed (and this is all but certain) it will provide a modest lift to economic growth over the next year. Nonetheless, the biggest drags on U.S. growth ...
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European monetary brief: ECB cuts growth forecasts and BoE rejects calls for boosting APF
European monetary brief: ECB cuts growth forecasts and BoE rejects calls for boosting APF, SNB set ceiling for the franc vs. euro
Last week, global economies started a new round of stimulus, taking us back to post-crisis era when g policy makers introduced measure to stimulate their economies after the 2008 financial crisis had pushed major economies into a severe recession.
President Obama proposed $447 billion jobs stimulus plan while Fed Chairman said the Fed still has tools left in its arsenal.
Policy makers are trying to boost their economies to avoid witnessing another strong downturn. Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the ECB, assured the bank's readiness to provide more liquidity for euro area banks.
Trichet's dovish remarks about growth prospects and high uncertainty ...
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More easing could help U.S. economy: Fed's Williams
(Reuters) - Adding still more monetary stimulus could help keep the ailing U.S. economy from worsening and possibly even set it on a path to better health, a top Federal Reserve official said on Wednesday.
"The real threat is an economy that is at risk of stalling and the prospect of many years of very high unemployment, with potentially long-run negative consequences for our economy," San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Rotary Club of Seattle.
Comparing the economy to a patient that has taken a "turn for the worse and faces heightened risks," Williams cautioned that taking steps to ease financial conditions further will not eliminate economic problems, and that costs and benefits must be carefully weighed.
Still, he ...
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Data shows softening in economy, no recession
(Reuters) - The pace of U.S. private sector job growth slowed in August for the second month in a row, but factory activity in the Chicago area continued to expand, suggesting the economy would dodge a recession.
Private employers added 91,000 positions this month, payrolls processor ADP National Employment said on Wednesday, broadly in line with expectations.
Separately, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer fell to 56.5 in August, the lowest since November 2009, from 58.8 the month before.
Still, it was better than economists' forecasts for a reading of 53.5, and suggested that factory activity might not be slowing as fast as had been flagged by other regional manufacturing surveys.
Orders for manufactured goods increased 2.4 percent in July after a ...
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Focus on Eurozone indicators today
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
Risk appetite was somewhat subdued overnight. However as US stocks managed to finish in the positive, most Asian markets have responded accordingly. A lack of data and fresh event risk appears to have steadied markets but the release of several Eurozone indicators will put the focus back on growth in the region, which has held up relatively better than the US throughout the year but now appears increasingly at risk. Elsewhere, FX developments remain troubling for the Japanese and Swiss authorities, for despite warnings and sustained operations in money markets respectively, the yen and franc’s losses against the USD and EUR appear to have stalled as markets wait for the next step. In the current market environment it remains to be seen how ...
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Risk Sentiment Stumbles Again, Waiting for Jackson Hole
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Risk sentiment stumbles again
Waiting for Jackson Hole
Are 'safe-havens' due for a short-term pullback?
SNB intervention risk is here to stay
The ECB calms sovereign debt markets
Key data and events to watch next week
Risk sentiment stumbles again
Risk assets (stocks, commodities, JPY- and CHF-crosses, and commodity currencies) stabilized further to start this past week, but suffered what seems likely to be the first in a series of periodic relapses, as market conviction remains extremely low. We remain cautiously optimistic that the sell-off in the first half of August marked the low point in the current risk retrenchment, but we are keenly aware that risks remain skewed to the downside. In support of the view that a medium-term bottom ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 20/08/2011
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
With German growth slowing to a crawl, Europe's economy is sputtering as its ability to solve its fiscal woes is increasingly being called into question.
The U.S. economy is also showing continued signs of weakness, raising the sobering prospect that the uncertainties of the last month may have begun bleeding into the real economy.
The risk of a shallow recession is rising. However, we still feel that marginally positive growth is the more likely scenario. Once August data begins trickling in next month, we will have a better sense of the real economic damage wrought by this month's financial upheavals.
Canada
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty were called to testify on the ...
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Risks Remain High Amid Debt and Growth Concerns
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Risks remain high amid debt and growth concerns
Cracks appear in the EU debt deal
UK's growth picture not as bleak as expected
Asia/Pacific FX - Rising inflation in Oceania and rising intervention risks in Japan
Key data and events to watch next week
Risks remain high amid debt and growth concerns
Uncertainty remained elevated and markets were on edge as debt problems on both sides of the Atlantic dominated headlines. Safe havens such as the JPY, CHF, and gold were beneficiaries amid market jitters. The Swiss franc reached new record highs gaining over 4% this week against the greenback and roughly 3.73% against the euro at the time of writing. In Europe, peripheral yields moved higher as the euphoria over the previous week's EU summit wore ...
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