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Action To Respond To The EuroTitle:
Euro Succeeds Short Squeeze
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather
- Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode.
- Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze
- On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Widespread discussion of a Greek exit continued, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades and periphery sovereign debt yields moved higher.
- Financial markets have responded to these global worries with increased risk aversion. The S&P is poised to end the week 3% lower, and 10-year treasuries are yielding just 1.7%.
- U.S. economic data has proved somewhat more encouraging, but growth is still struggling to breakout beyond a moderate pace. This has kept the possibility of additional monetary stimulus alive even if the threshold remains quite high.
Canada
- Recent economic indicators are showing a resurgence of strength in the Canadian economy. Strong ...
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Euro zone fears starting to hit trade, financing
The euro zone debt crisis is affecting trade as companies shy away from dealing with firms and banks in countries deemed at risk of contagion, a senior banker said on Thursday.
Tan Kah Chye, London-based global head of trade and working capital at Barclays Bank, said companies were recoiling from doing business on an open-account basis, whereby an exporter ships and delivers goods before the importer pays.
An exporter can greatly reduce the risk attached to such 'buy now, pay later' transactions, which make up an estimated 80 percent of global trade, by buying a bank letter of credit.
But Tan, speaking as chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce's commission on banking, said firms were also nervous about being exposed to banks away from the euro zone periphery that were at risk ...
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The Bank of England's Next Move
The Week Ahead
■The Bank of England's next move
■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone?
■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing
■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric
The Bank of England's next move
The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report.
The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...
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A Mixed Session For Investors In Asia
Attention was momentarily drawn away from Europe by employment data out of Australia and then trade figures out of China, with the former printing better than expected and the latter disappointing the market. Following the data, price action was fairly range bound in the FX market as investors await the slew of news and data out of the UK and US tonight.
In Australia, data released early in the session showed that the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% from 5.2% and employment increased by 15.5K, much better than the expected increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3% and a drop in employment of 5K. The participation rate also cooled at little, coming in at 65.2% versus a prior 65.4%.
Overall, the employment data bodes well for the health of the Australian economy this year. We were ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 27/04/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
First-Quarter GDP Growth Slows
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, somewhat slower than the consensus had expected. Consumption remained the primary driver of growth as business spending slowed and the government sector continued to scale back spending.
In our U.S. review section this week, we discuss the GDP report in the context of the big miss in durables and consider what it means for business spending going forward. We also look at a very small change in the Fed statement this week that reflects an improving view on the troubled housing sector.
Business Spending Poised for a Slowdown?
Durable goods orders for March were ugly. The 4.2 percent drop was the largest decline since the U.S. ...
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Rate hikes a distant prospect for more upbeat Fed
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may appear slightly more upbeat on the economy on Wednesday, though investors should not mistake this cautious optimism for any desire to raise interest rates soon.
Instead, central bank officials will probably reiterate their expectations that official borrowing costs will remain near zero until at least late 2014, and leave open the option to ease policy further if the economy worsens.
"The meeting tomorrow is unlikely to provide any new clues to the Fed's next actions, rather leaving open the possibility of new measures depending on the economic outlook," said Richard Gilhooly, a bond market strategist at TD Securities.
Investors wishing for clues to the prospect of a further easing of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank may be disappointed, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Today's dismal PMI figures clearly indicate that the euro zone economy remains in dire straits"
- Martin Van Vliet, senior economist at ING
The euro zone’s manufacturing contracted in April, a sign the economy is far from out of the woods. The purchasing managers index declined to 47.9 from 49.2 in March, Markit data showed on Monday. Reading below 50.0 indicates industry contraction.
USD
"There’s more work to be done in Europe"
- Mark Bronzo, a fund manager at Guggenheim Investments
U.S. stocks declined after data showed that manufacturing contracted in the euro zone.
GBP
"Political developments in Europe are weighing on indices"
- Rupert Osborne, a futures dealer at IG Index
U.K. stocks declined sharply on Monday after manufacturing in the single currency ...
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