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ActionTitle:
Inertia Will Sink The Euro Again
The G8 Summit achieved very little in public which was no real surprise, but there was also an apparent lack of urgency surrounding the Euro-zone situation which was a much greater surprise given a sharp deterioration in the financial sector last week. Where was the urgency for fresh action to help support the Euro banking sector? The absence must surely indicate that Euro-zone and G8 leaders, while paying lip-service to the current strategy, have effectively moved on and are actively planning the next stage of the crisis.
Fear is likely to dominate in the short term and this is likely to keep strong defensive demand for the dollar and yen. In these circumstances, there is no real chance of a sustained Euro rally with 2012 lows likely to be seen. Bond markets will be watched very closely ...
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Oil rises on China call for growth, Iran
(Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by China's premier calling for efforts to stimulate growth and by positioning ahead of Iran's nuclear program talks with major powers.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's call for, "giving more priority to maintaining growth" signaled Beijing's willingness to take action after several recent economic indicators suggested that the economy could continue to slow in the second quarter.
"China's central bank has already cut bank reserve requirements to stimulate growth and such comments suggest that even more may be done in the months ahead to ward off a hard landing," Addison Armstrong, a senior director at Tradition Energy, said in a note.
Group of Eight leaders backed keeping Greece in the euro zone at their summit on Saturday, but a lack of ...
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Is Facebook Weighing on the Euro or is the Euro Weighing on Facebook?
It has been a lacklustre day post the G8 meeting at the weekend (yawn), the drop in Mark Zuckerberg's net worth seems to be more of a talking point than the continuing Eurozone crisis. But, the Eurozone banking index gives it all away. Bankia, Santander and the usual Spanish suspects all turned lower as we headed into London's lunchtime, which dragged the overall European banking sector down to its lowest level since November 2011. Within a matter of hours EURUSD followed suit and is making fresh lows of the day at 1.2730 (at the time of writing).
Official EU disappointment
Although a temporary bottom may be in place at 1.2624 in EURUSD, the G8 summit highlighted a couple of things that remain negative for the single currency: 1, how divided the Eurozone (and the world) is about how to ...
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Exclusive: South Korea poised to halt Iran oil imports from July: sources
(Reuters) - South Korea will effectively become the first of Iran's major Asian customers to halt oil purchases from July 1, when a European Union insurance ban will prevent further imports.
South Korea's largest oil refiner SK Energy (096770.KS) will stop Iranian oil imports after the ban takes effect, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said on Monday.
Last month, industry sources said the only other South Korean refinery that buys Iranian crude, Hyundai Oilbank, would stop imports from June.
Iran exports most of its 2.2 million barrels of crude per day to Asia, home to its four biggest buyers China, India, Japan and South Korea.
But U.S. and EU sanctions aimed at halting Iran's nuclear program by reducing its oil revenues have made purchases difficult, with the impending ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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Brent edges up toward $108, Greece weighs
(Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Monday, nearing $108 per barrel as worries about Greece's possible exit from the euro dominated the agenda, despite the prospect of an economic stimulus in China and concerns about Iran as talks with world leaders start this week.
A summit of the G8 at the weekend failed to deliver any signal that Europe would act quickly to address the risk of a chaotic Greek exit from the euro, leaving investors in a state of alert, curbing an upturn in oil prices.
"Gains may be short-lived as EU politicians as usual are having a hard time agreeing on anything. However an interesting week ahead with the European debt crisis posing a risk on the downside and the potential for nuclear talks with Iran to fail on the upside," said Thorbjoern Bak Jensen, oil analyst at ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
Extends the near-term recovery above initial barriers at 1.2750 zone, after temporary footstep was found at 1.2640, last Friday. Bounce from here briefly broke above 1.2800 barrier, also Fib 23.6%, where descending trendline, connecting 1.3282/1.3177 tops, limited gains at 1.2811, with corrective easing on overbought hourly studies under way. Dips need to be contained at 1.2760/40 zone, to maintain positive near-term tone for possible fresh attack at upper barriers. Lift above 1.2800, to face significant resistances at 1.2886, Fib 38.2% and 1.2900 zone, clearance of which to confirm near-term base and open way for stronger retracement of 1.3282/1.2641 downleg, with 1.2950/80 seen next. On the downside, loss f 1.2740 and psychological support at 1.2700, would turn focus lowercase ...
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Euro Succeeds Short Squeeze
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather
- Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode.
- Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze
- On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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