Across The Market And Amongst

Dutch Fears Trump French Elections If you looked at the headlines from the weekend you may have thought that risk was poised to rally today. The first round of the French Presidential election was a tighter race than expected. Socialist Hollande won 27.1% of the vote while Sarkozy was not that far behind with 26.7%. The French left, which has called for ECB rate cuts and a re-negotiation of the EU's Fiscal Pact, did less well than expected, which should have calmed markets this morning. However, weak economic data out of the currency bloc combined with fears about the Dutch triple A credit rating has caused risk aversion to grip the markets at the start of this week. Dutch budget wrangling hurts risk sentiment The Netherlands has overtaken France as the largest political risk this week ...

Forex Morning Briefing : Euro weakness keeps EUR/CHF close to target levels What’s new: Asia: Asian Equities follow US counterparts into negative territory FOREX: EUR/CHF still close to 1.20 after briefly slipping below yesterday BoE: Remains on hold no changes to Asset purchases target Rates in Asia and Indices: EURUSD: 1.3053 – 1.3078. USDCHF: 0.9187 – 0.9206. GBPUSD: 1.5822 - 1.5866. EURJPY: 107.29 – 107.66. USDJPY: 82.16– 82.40. DowJones: 13’060.14 -0.11% NASDAQ: 3'080.50 +0.4% S & P 500: 1'398.08 -0.06% Nikkei: 9’688.45 -0.81% Shanghai: 2'300.64 -0.07% Gold: $ 1'630.10 Crude Oil: $ 103.31 Comments: Markets remain hesitant; after the Fed’s minutes earlier this week caused investors to rethink about the likelihood of further QE from the US Central bank. In the US, major equity ...

Forex News and Events: With Greek negotiations ongoing but yet to reach a conclusion, media chatter over the weekend was dominated by reports that Germany wishes to have greater oversight of Greece’s budget – a proposal that Greece has readily dismissed. The suggestion was endorsed by German cabinet minister Philipp Roesler, and reflects the widespread scepticism both across the market and amongst policy makers that Greece could struggle to bring its debt down to sustainable levels. Even if the bond swap discussions between Greece and its private investors manages to come to a positive (albeit later than expected) conclusion, it is clear that plenty of hurdles still remain for Greece’s credibility as a viable contributor to the Eurozone. As we approach Greece’s next major bond ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) USD Risk continues to enjoy a healthy recovery as today’s Eurozone Finance Ministers look to approve Greece receiving the 6th tranche of aid today. More importantly, the details for EFSF leveraging are expected to receive the official go-ahead, though the marginal impact of these bits of ‘good news’ should be limited at best and investors will still cast a nervous eye towards this week’s bond auctions and Eurozone yields in general may not find too much respite. Our European economists have significantly lowered their 2012 growth forecasts to -0.7% y/y from +0.2% y/y previously, reflecting heightened concerns about Europe. Knock-on effects to other economies means UBS now forecasts 2012 global growth forecast at only +2.7% y/y (prev. 3.1%). A ...

Morning Briefing : G20 meetings offer new ideas but ups pressure on Europe What's new: Asia: Equity indices remain in green territory United States: Better than expected US retail sales help maintain hopes G20: Despite no concrete measures were announced G20 ministers stepped up pressure on EZ China: Investors will eye tomorrow’s data for more indication Germany: Speaking more openly on the prospects of a possible haircut on Greek debt Forex: Antipodeans give in some of last week’s gains Forex rates in Asia and Indices: EUR/USD: 1.3887 - 1.3828. USD/CHF: 0.8953– 0.8911. GBP/USD: 1.5839 - 1.5784. EUR/JPY: 107.26 – 106.74 USD/JPY: 77.30 – 77.08 Dow Jones: 11’644.49 +1.45% NASDAQ: 2'667.85 +1.82% S & P 500: 1'224.58 +1.74% Nikkei: 8’879.60 +1.50% Shanghai: 2'434.73 +0.14% Gold: $ 1'681. ...

Forex News and Events: With China on holiday negative risk sentiment ran rampant in Asian trading. Regional indices were hit hard with the Nikkei down -2.40% and Hang Seng falling -3.40%. Even strong import and export numbers released from China could produce much optimism. Pressure mounted on the EUR Friday, as traders became very concerned with the eurozone prospects. Italian and Spanish 10yr yields remain comfortably above 5%, while Greece CDS prices continued to climb to astronomical levels. Last week, German Finance Minister Schaeuble stated that Greece was on a "knife's edge" and today that is precisely the feeling within the financial markets. Late Friday, rumors began to spread and drift into mainstream media that Greece was planning to default over the weekend. Also amongst the ...

Forex News and Events: After the Swiss National Bank decided not to announce any fresh measures to counter CHF strength yesterday, the currency has been on a rampage higher – with markets keen to test policymakers’ resolve and take advantage of pretty decent prevailing entry levels against the EUR and USD. As if traders needed any further encouragement to buy CHF, this morning’s Q2 GDP reading highlighted the stark contrast between the haves and the have-nots in the G10. Growth in the Swiss economy was recorded at 2.3% YoY, more than half a percent higher than comparable data for the Eurozone (at 1.7% last estimate), more than double the quarter on quarter annualized growth rate for the US (1.0% last estimate), and incredibly, more than three times the year on year growth in the UK ( ...

Morning Briefing : FX investors shall be eyeing data for signs of economic growth What's new: Asia: Major equity indices in the Green China: Better PMI Manufacturing reported this morning Aussie: Buoyed by better Retail Sales Forex: USD support pushes USD/JPY to week’s high Forex: Swissie remains in support after government official’s comments Forex rates in Asia and Indices: EURUSD: 1.4385- 1.4354. USDCHF: 0.8083 – 0.8032. GBPUSD: 1.6272 - 1.6218. EURJPY: 110.94 – 110.11. USDJPY: 77.23 – 76.58. DowJones: 11’613.53 +0.46% NASDAQ: 2'579.46 +0.13% S & P 500: 1'218.89 +0.49% Nikkei: 9’060.80 +1.18% Shanghai: 2’561.79 -0.22% Gold: $ 1,820.00 Crude Oil: $ 88.96 Comments: US indices closed the last day of August in the green, albeit gains were marginal for the day. Asian stocks also took ...

www.youtradefx.com SP500-SEP10 The vote on the raising of the United States debt ceiling was successfully passed by the Senate yesterday. However, investors do not appear to be impressed, especially against the background of very real fears that the United States perfect credit rating is in danger of being lowered. A wave of steep drops swept across the financial markets yesterday when the S&P index dived down by 2.5%, to a record low level of 1248 dollars. The technical picture for the index shows that it is still within the shuffling pattern which it entered some six months ago. So long as the index is traded above it lowest level of 1215 dollars, the estimate is that at some stage it can be expected to renew it upwards movement towards the upper half of the pattern. It is important to ...