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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 05/18/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· German PPI (MoM) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
· Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (ITA, 09:00 GMT)
· Spanish Trade Balance (SPAIN, 11:30 GMT)
· Core CPI (MoM) (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
· ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW) ( U.S, 15:30 GMT)
The Philly Fed Index tumbled to a negative 5.8 in May from a positive 8.5 in April and Conference Board's leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a 0.3 percent increase in March, according to an official report released yesterday. While, the Labor Department figures said that the unemployment claims was at a seasonally adjusted level of 370,000 for the week, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure.
Greece’s credit rating was downgraded one level by Fitch ...
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Crude oil resumes the selloff as the outlook continues to worsen
Crude oil resumes the strong decline and heading to the third consecutive weekly decline as the outlook for global growth and stability in Europe continues to worsen. Oil ended again with losses in NY yesterday for the sixth consecutive session and futures this morning and trading to the downside attempting to breach $92 areas.
The selloff across the board is surely fueled by the fears over the relapse in the global recovery and inevitably influenced by resurfacing debt problems in Europe, where Greece is on the verge of being forced to declare bankruptcy and drop the euro which might pull the footing under wobbling Spain.
Haven demand is keeping the dollar strong and that is further pressure on commodities. The GSCI ended yesterday with losses and was led by energy that dropped 1.10% ...
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IMF Lagarde asks Athens to show commitment to euro
The Greek political crisis is still overshadowing markets with doubt over the euro area’s ability to survive this crisis. The inconclusive May 06 elections rattled markets into disarray and ended this week with the call to new elections on June 17.
Christine Lagarde IMF Chief stressed again on the need for the nation to show its commitment, in an election the market is calling the final referendum on staying in the euro.
Lagarde said on Thursday that political leaders in Greece should show the “resolve” to stay in the euro zone. Her comments said in an interview on Dutch television were merely optimistic as she called to think of the “optimal scenario” in which Greece “has the political resolve to actually observe the commitment, comply with the undertaking, stay within the zone, which ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/17/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013"
- Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG
Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday.
USD
"Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens"
- Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital
The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55.
GBP
Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...
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Global shares recover a bit, though fear on Greece remains
Asian shares on Thursday recovered a bit of the ground lost in the previous day's sell-off, but investors found no reason to bet on risk amid deepening turmoil in Greece and fears of contagion to other stressed euro zone economies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.5 percent on short covering, after sliding more than 3 percent - its biggest one-day drop in six months - on Wednesday.
The index hit a new 4-month low on Wednesday, and has shed 9.6 percent since May 2.
Gold and the euro recovered from Wednesday's lows as a recovery in shares helped improve sentiment slightly.
Bucking the general trend of recovery in Asia-Pacific, Australian shares .AXJO bucked the general recovery, falling 0.6 percent to a four-month low, with banks easing on ...
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A mild relief on Merkel, upbeat U.S. data
After the deep selloff markets recover some of earlier losses triggered by fears of “Grexit”, after politicians failed to find a common ground and name a new coalition government. Meanwhile Angela Merkel in an interview with CNBC reiterated following many European politicians “I want Greece to stay in the Euro” giving markets a minor relief, and a reason to rebound in a normal pullback after being oversold.
The EUR/USD decently off lows, the pair has traded the lowest since January today at 1.2680, and currently trading around 1.2750. Meanwhile, U.S. housing sector continues to show recovery, as building permits fell to 715,000 last month, however March permits were revised upward to 769,000. Housing starts rose to 717,000 units, while March reading of 654,000 was revised to 699,000. On ...
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USD is Preferred Haven
USD is Preferred Haven
USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures.
EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...
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BoE upwardly revises inflation outlook, growth prospects remains uncertain
In the BoE`s quarterly inflation report, the bank referred that the outlook is still clouded by high uncertainty due to the weak demand and tight credit conditions and escalating risks from the euro area debt crisis which remains to be the greatest threat to the U.S. recovery.
The report referred that demand waned from different regions, especially the euro area which is still suffering the blues of the debt crisis which forced the U.K. to expand its exports in non-EU regions.
The British economy is experiencing a technical recession after recording 0.2% contraction in the first quarter, driven down by construction, following the 0.3% contraction recorded in the last quarter of 2011 and may face the threat of facing more deepening recession as the recent data shows further ...
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Greece worries send euro to 4-month low vs. dollar
The euro fell to a four-month low against the dollar on Wednesday and was poised for more losses after Greece announced it would hold new elections, boosting the risk the country could exit the euro.
The prospect of prolonged political instability and worries about the knock-on effects of a Greek euro exit for struggling economies like Spain and Italy caused investors to flee the euro and seek the safety of the dollar and the yen.
The euro also hit a three-month low against the yen, while the dollar rose to its highest in four months against a basket of currencies.
"The uncertainty around the political situation in Greece continues to undermine risk appetite, which is affecting a range of currencies," said Paul Robson, currency strategist at RBS.
"There is uncertainty around the ...
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