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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/03/2013


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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 05-03-2013 10:20:44

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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/03/2013

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Fundamental Analysis

EUR
"You can always look on the bright side of life. But when you have 5 million registered unemployed then this is still bad news."
- You can always look on the bright side of life. But when you have 5 million registered unemployed then this is still bad news
The number of registered unemployed people in Spain rose less than expected last month, however, jumped beyond the 5 million mark for the first time, as the Eurozoneís fourth-largest economy contracted and the government imposed steep spending cuts. According to the Ministry of Employment and Social Security, there were 59,444 or 1.19% more people unemployed in February compared to the previous month, while the total number of Spaniards out of work stood at 5,040,222.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis


Technical Analysis

EUR/USD
"The Italian situation wonít be resolved soon, so the euro malaise will continue. I think the ECB will consider rate cuts going forward. Itís unlikely there will be any euro-buying catalysts from the ECB meeting this week."
- Marito Ueda, FX Prime Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD has returned back to the down-trend at 1.3040 that now lies overhead, but the current bias is bearish, meaning we are more likely to see a sell-off here than a surge back above this line. However, development of a dip may not be rapid, since beneath the spot price lies the 200-day SMA at 1.2922/12, which usually is of interest to the market.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis

Expert Commentary

"I believe that in times of deep recession as much liquidity as possible should be provided until there are signs of inflation or improvement in GDP and...."
- Brian Davis, Professor of Finance at Pennsylvania State University, on Fedís monetary policy
The Federal Reserve is planning to continue its bond-buying stimulus for the foreseeable future despite hints of strength in the economy and rising concern about the policy's risks...

Press Review

Europe
Eurozone confident on Cyprus bailout
Eurozone finance ministers, known collectively as the Eurogroup, are confident of agreeing a bailout for Cyprus by the end of March.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Press Review

Market Research

Currency Index & Volatility: EUR
Last week performance of the single European currency was to a great extent defined by the Italian elections, which have left the government incapable of operating effectively, as none has gained a decisive majority that would ensure smooth working process.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Market Research

Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index

Global economic outlook
The six-month and three-year global economic expectations improved considerably in January, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index climbed 0.05 to 0.58. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.77, the highest reading since records began in 2011.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index


Global Stock Market Review

S&P 500
U.S. equities advanced on better-than-forecast economic data that offset concerns over budget spending cuts and Italian parliamentary election. The Standardís & Poorís 500 Index rallied as much as 0.2% to close at 1,518.20 on Friday. The gauge has rallied 1.1% in February, extending its gains for a fourth consecutive month.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Global Stock Market Review


Commodity Overview

Precious Metals
Precious metals dived on Monday on concerns that the Fed may end its bond-buying activities amid signs of economic recovery. At the same time, hopes for monetary stimulus in Japan and the Eurozone supported the commodity complex.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview

Trade Pattern Idea

AUD/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
AUD/USD has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 41% quality and 83% magnitude in the 116-bar period.

Weekly USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CHF has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 69% quality and 51% magnitude on in the 70-bar period.

Economic Research

Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research

Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator

Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.




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