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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/03/2013


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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 05-03-2013 09:33:30

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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/03/2013

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Today’s highlights:

·         Services PMI (GB, 09:30)
·         Retail Sales (MoM) (EU, 10:00 GMT)
·         ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (U.S, 15:00 GMT)

Americans are finding it easier to borrow from banks, supporting consumer spending and business investment and helping fuel employment just as U.S. government budget cuts start to take hold. Data from the Federal Reserve show banks are more willing to lend and their customers are seeking more credit as both groups gain confidence in the economic outlook. Other news is that, the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said the Fed should press on with $85 billion in monthly bond buying while tracking possible costs and risks from the unprecedented program.

Australia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a half-century low and reiterated it has room to cut further if needed to boost demand. Governor Glenn Stevens and his board left the overnight cash-rate target at 3 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a statement today in Melbourne.

European finance ministers opened the way for looser budget policies after a backlash against austerity thrust Italy into political limbo and shattered months of relative stability in European markets. Italy’s deadlocked election, France’s refusal to make deeper budget cuts and protests against the shrinking of the welfare state across southern Europe escalated the rebellion against the German-led prescription for fighting the debt crisis. In addition, European finance ministers left open the possibility of saddling bank depositors and bondholders with some of the costs of an aid package for Cyprus, potentially unsettling markets as the bailout negotiations drag on. Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem declined to rule out a “bail in” of Cypriot depositors, even after concern over the treatment of bank account holders prompted the first signs of capital flight from the island.


EUR/USD
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly higher at 1.30326 at the time of writing on market corrections and ahead of the Spanish Services PMI (Forecast: 46.0 – Previous: 47.0), the Italian Service PMI (Forecast: 43.6 – Previous: 43.9), the French Services PMI (Forecast Unchanged at 42.7), the German Services PMI (Forecast: unchanged at 54.1) and the Services PMI in the Eurozone (Forecast: Unchanged at 47.3). The Eurozone will also release its Retail Sales (MoM) (Forecast: 0.2% - Previous: -0.8%). While, in the U.S, the Institute of Supply Management will release its Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is expected to decrease to 55.0 from 55.2 registered previously. Investors should remain very prudent on the pair as sentiments remain weak on the EUR after the European finance ministers opened the way for looser budget policies following a backlash against austerity thrust Italy into political limbo and shattered months of relative stability in European markets. Moreover, the euro area’s gross domestic product probably fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three-month period, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data tomorrow. Investors should wait for data and news to come on market to get visibility. The resistance level is at 1.31024 and the support is at 1.29655.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/ebec296685819611831b04420532cdcd.jpg


AUD/USD
AUD/USD: The AUD/USD was trading higher at 1.02455 after Australia’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a half-century low and reiterated it has room to cut further if needed and the country’s current-account deficit unexpectedly narrowed in the three months through December on increased iron ore exports. The Australian retail sales also advanced in January, led by gains in household goods as interest-rate reductions encouraged spending. Market sentiment remain bullish on the AUD as a report tomorrow may show that GDP (QoQ) in Australia improved to 0.6% compared to 0.5% recorded last quarter. Events likely to bring some volatility on the pair today are the Spanish Services PMI (Forecast: 46.0 – Previous: 47.0), the Italian Service PMI (Forecast: 43.6 – Previous: 43.9), the French Services PMI (Forecast Unchanged at 42.7), the German Services PMI (Forecast: unchanged at 54.1) and the Services PMI in the Eurozone (Forecast: Unchanged at 47.3). The Eurozone will also release its Retail Sales (MoM) (Forecast: 0.2% - Previous: -0.8%). While, in the U.S, the Institute of Supply Management will release it’s Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is expected to decrease to 55.0 from 55.2 registered previously. These data are going affect market sentiments for risky assets. The resistance level is at 1.02734 and the support level is at 1.01866.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/cc4647933f625a746ffd4ba7f008b741.jpg


WTI
WTI (Oil): Oil was trading slightly higher at 90.420 at the time of writing on news that a North Sea pipeline system remained shut after a platform leak.  The U.S. crude stockpiles probably advanced for a seventh week, the longest stretch since May, a Bloomberg News survey showed before Energy Department data tomorrow. U.S. crude inventories probably rose 788,000 barrels last week, according to the median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline stockpiles decreased 250,000 barrels and distillate supplies slid 1 million barrels, the survey showed. Investors should remain prudent on the commodity and adopt a wait and see. Investors should close monitor all data from the U.S, Euro area and China to get some visibility. The resistance level is at 90.932 and the support level is at 89.355

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/37d47ad790405e9393a8df4f3282ea09.jpg




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