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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 04/03/2013
"All the data is supporting a rate cut, which we see in the second quarter."
- Sarah Hewin from Standard Chartered
The rate of unemployment in the 17-nation currency bloc soared to a fresh record in January, indicating that the recession is engulfing more and more businesses, figures from the EUís statistics office, Eurostat, showed Friday. The overall jobless rate climbed to 11.9% in January, up from 11.8% in December, as additional 200,000 people joined jobless queues across the region.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
"Februaryís fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the further rise in unemployment in January raise the chances of further policy action by the ECB.Ē."
- Capital Economics (based on MarketWatch)
Last week the price did not receive sufficiently strong bullish impetus at 1.3061 in order to breach the 100-day SMA at 1.3162. Instead it has eroded the support, opening the way towards 1.2929/16, the current location of the 200-day SMA, which presumably has a higher chance of resisting the selling pressure that persists in the market at the moment.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis
"I believe that in times of deep recession as much liquidity as possible should be provided until there are signs of inflation or improvement in GDP and...."
- Brian Davis, Professor of Finance at Pennsylvania State University, on Fedís monetary policy
The Federal Reserve is planning to continue its bond-buying stimulus for the foreseeable future despite hints of strength in the economy and rising concern about the policy's risks...
Euro Leaders Demand Austerity as Italy Nears New Vote
European leaders demanded that euro members press on with budget cuts to end the debt crisis as Italy edged closer to a new election after an anti-austerity vote last week resulted in political deadlock.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Press Review
Currency Index & Volatility: CHF
The Swiss Franc has managed to preserve its neutrality, closing the period of the last five trading days with only a 0.1% loss. This could be explained by a dearth of news on the Swiss economy.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market Research
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global economic outlook
The six-month and three-year global economic expectations improved considerably in January, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index climbed 0.05 to 0.58. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.77, the highest reading since records began in 2011.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global Stock Market Review
Japanese stocks advanced after retreating yesterday as decline in consumer prices raised hopes the Bank of Japan will add more monetary stimulus to fight the deflation. Japanís consumer prices dropped for a third straight month. The Japanese benchmark index Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.4% to close at 11,606.38.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Global Stock Market Review
Energy futures ended the week in the red territory on concerns over global demand prospects amid weak PMI reading in China and political turmoil in Italy. Also weighing on prices were worries that the Fed may halt its bond-buying plan earlier-than-planned.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
USD/CAD has formed a Channel Up pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 64% quality and 82% magnitude in the 287-bar period.
Weekly USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CHF has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 69% quality and 51% magnitude on in the 70-bar period.
Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator