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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 01/03/2013
"The labour market seems to be coping well with the plunge in activity last autumn."
- Eckart Tuchtfeld, an analyst at Commerzbank AG
Consumer prices in the 17-nation currency bloc turned lower to 2.0% from January 2012, down from 2.2% in December, and on par with the ECBís 2% inflation target, as consumers had to pay more for goods and services. The lowest rates were registered in Greece, Portugal and Latvia, which reported inflation of 0%, 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
"Sentiment toward the euro is calmer but the situation is still unclear in Italy, and investors are waiting for fresh developments there."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (based on Reuters)
Consolidation persists in the market, as bears continue to lay pressure upon a falling support line at 1.3044. Judging by the technical indicators, the price is unlikely to be a subject to a robust and extensive recovery in the near future. For now rallies are capped by the 100-day SMA at 1.3158, but a surge up to 1.3273/56 also will not invalidate the negative outlook.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis
"I believe that in times of deep recession as much liquidity as possible should be provided until there are signs of inflation or improvement in GDP and unemployment."
- Brian Davis, Professor of Finance at Pennsylvania State University, on Fedís monetary policy
As far as where we are right now, part of the problem what the Fed is trying to solve is to counterbalance the ineptitude of the American government on fiscal policy. Until businesses in the U.S. start to take on more risk and cut expenses so much that they have to hire again, when they start to see a productivity slowdown, I think the Fed is doing the best that they can.
Spain's regional gov'ts miss 2012 deficit target
The Spanish regional governments (Comunidades Autonomas) missed 2012 deficit target of 1.5 percent as they experienced an average deficit of 1.73 percent, Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro said on Thursday.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Press Review
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The momentum the U.S. Dollar has gained in anticipation of the publication of the FOCM meeting minutes last Wednesday was limited only to Feb 20. Later on the bulls did not reveal themselves, but also did not allow the bears to take control of the buckís value, keeping the currency index 1-1.5% above the base value. Such buoyancy appeared because of evolving talks on the need to prolong the stimulus, currently provided by the Fed on a monthly basis.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market Research
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global economic outlook
The six-month and three-year global economic expectations improved considerably in January, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index climbed 0.05 to 0.58. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.77, the highest reading since records began in 2011.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global Stock Market Review
Hong Kong equities extended their gains for a second straight day, with the Hang Seng index posting its biggest increase in two months, as U.S. economic data added to bullish sentiment in the market. The Hang Seng Index rose 2% to 23,020.27,posting its biggest gain since January 2. All groups in the gauge edged higher.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Global Stock Market Review
Energy futures apart from natural gas moved lower on Thursday on signs of rising US production. At the same time, bullish EIA inventory reports as well as positive US data limited the downward trend of the commodity complex.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview
Trade Pattern Idea
AUD/USD Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
AUD/USD has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 60% quality and 82% magnitude in the 110-bar period.
Weekly USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CHF has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 69% quality and 51% magnitude on in the 70-bar period.
Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator