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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 01/03/2013

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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 01-03-2013 09:14:08

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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 01/03/2013

Today’s highlights:

·         Italian Manufacturing PMI (Ita, 08:45 GMT)
·         French Manufacturing PMI (Fra, 08:50 GMT)
·         German Manufacturing PMI (Ger, 08:55)
·         Manufacturing PMI (EU, 09:00 GMT)
·         Manufacturing PMI (GB, 09:30 GMT)
·         Unemployment Rate (EU, 10:00 GMT)
·         GDP (MoM) (Can, 13:30 GMT)
·         Core PCE Price Index (MoM) + Personal Spending (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
·         ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S, 15:00 GMT)
·         Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks  (U.S, Tomorrow: 02:00 GMT)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the Fed must avoid stifling the U.S. economic expansion by halting record stimulus too soon. “We need to be careful not to undermine our own policies and remove accommodation prematurely, as the Japanese did,” Evans said today in the text of remarks prepared for a speech in Des Moines, Iowa. “Mindful of this danger, we must guard against complacency and not deviate in our approach.”

Two Chinese manufacturing indexes showed a slower-than-estimated pace of expansion, a signal the nation’s economic recovery may be losing steam. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index was 50.1 in February, the weakest in five months and down from 50.4 in January, a report from the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed today in Beijing. A separate gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to a four-month low of 50.4 from 52.3.

Italy’s political gridlock following its inconclusive elections risks unraveling years of crisis- fighting work, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen said. Failure to commit to responsible fiscal policy could reignite market turmoil and result in losses that would be “too terrible,” Katainen said in an interview in Helsinki yesterday. “I don’t even want to consider that.”

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly higher at 1.30643 at the time of writing on market corrections ahead of some important economic data in the Eurozone and the U.S. However, Market sentiments remain fragile as the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said this week the bank is “far” from exiting stimulus measures. The events likely to affect the movement of the pair are; the German Retail Sales (MoM) (Forecast: 1.0% - Previous: -1.7%), the Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 46.5 – Previous: 46.1), the Italian Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 47.60 – Previous: 47.80), the French Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: unchanged at 43.6), the German Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: Unchanged at 50.1) and the Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (Forecast: unchanged at 47.8). In addition, the Eurozone will release its Unemployment Rate, which is expected to increase to 11.8% from 11.7% registered previously. Later in the day, the U.S will release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Forecast: 0.2% - Previous: 0.0%), Personal Spending (MoM) (Forecast: Unchanged at 0.2%), the Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Forecast Unchanged at 76.3) and the ISM Manufacturing Index (forecast: 52.5 – Previous: 53.1). The Fed Chairman Bernanke will also make a Speech before the American session is closed. Investors should stay focus on the market and adopt a wait and see strategy on the pair. The resistance level is at 1.31645 and the support level is at 1.30160.

USD/CAD: The USD/CAD was trading lower at 1.02933 at the time of writing as a report today forecast to show that the Canadian gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in December, resulting in fourth quarter growth holding steady at 0.6 percent, according to the median estimates of two Bloomberg News surveys. On the other hand, Manufacturing in the U.S. probably expanded in February for a third month as businesses invested more in new equipment, economists said before a report today. In addition, a report from the U.S Commerce Department today is projected to show that consumer spending is holding up. Household purchases advanced 0.2 percent in January for a second month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. Other event likely to affect the trend of the pair is the Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech. Investors should also monitor all the data and news from the Eurozone to more visibility as they will affect market sentiments for risky assets. Prudence is recommended on the pair. The resistance level is at 1.03096 and the support level is at 1.02511

Oil (WTI): Oil was trading slightly higher at 91.820 at the time of writing on market corrections after dropping to the lowest price this year, as OPEC production rose for the first time in six months and Chinese manufacturing expanded less than forecast yesterday. Oil in New York may decline next week amid U.S. government spending cuts and crude inventories at a seven-month high, a Bloomberg survey showed. Twenty-one of 37 analysts and traders, or 57 percent, forecast crude will decline through March 8. Twelve respondents, or 32 percent, predicted an increase, and four forecast little change. Market sentiments remain weak on the commodity. Investors should monitor all the data in the Eurozone, China and the U.S to better assess the trend of the commodity today. The resistance level is at 93.159 and the support level is at 91.053.

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