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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 28/02/2013
"Things have improved a little bit in the Eurozone, but economic conditions are still extremely tough across the region."
- Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics
Confidence among consumers and investors in the 17-nation currency bloc improved for the fourth consecutive month in February, adding to signs that region’s economy may be emerging from a recession, the European Commission said Wednesday.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
"As long as the make-up and policies of Italy's government are unclear, the euro will have a tough time recapturing $1.33, let alone $1.34 or $1.35."
- BK Asset Management (based on Reuters)
As anticipated, the currency pair has stepped back from the falling support line at 1.3044. However, a bullish correction may have already come to an end, as the 100-day SMA at 1.3156 is proving to be a strong resistance level. Moreover, daily technical studies started to point to the downside, suggesting that the rally should be tepid, also being that the rising trend-line has recently given in.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis
"I think it is accurate to say that none of the countries, which really suffered from a financial collapse, have seen their debt reduced even by austerity."
- Robert Ayres, Emeritus Professor at INSEAD
the debts normally just get worse, because unemployment reduces government revenues and we see this everywhere.
Draghi Says ECB in No Rush to Tighten as Inflation Slows
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the bank has no intention of tightening monetary policy anytime soon with inflation projected to “significantly” undershoot its 2 percent target next year.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Press Review
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
The momentum the U.S. Dollar has gained in anticipation of the publication of the FOCM meeting minutes last Wednesday was limited only to Feb 20. Later on the bulls did not reveal themselves, but also did not allow the bears to take control of the buck’s value, keeping the currency index 1-1.5% above the base value.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market Research
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global economic outlook
The six-month and three-year global economic expectations improved considerably in January, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed. The six-month economic sentiment index climbed 0.05 to 0.58. The three-year economic outlook improved to 0.77, the highest reading since records began in 2011.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global Stock Market Review
Wall Street was green on Tuesday, rebounding from the lowest levels since November 2012, as housing and consumer confidence data topped the estimates. The S&P 500 Index climbed 0.6% to close at 1,496.94. All sectors edged higher. PulteGroup Inc. posted biggest gains in the index, as its shares were 5.72% up at $19.05 by its close, adding to the 0.5% increase in consumer goods.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Global Stock Market Review
Industrial metals were mixed on Wednesday amid soft greenback and upbeat US numbers. US core durable goods orders jumped 1.9% in January, while pending home sales surged 4.5% last month, compared to a forecast of a 1.5% gain. At the same time, rising global supply glut weighed on base metals.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview
Trade Pattern Idea
GBP/USD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
GBP/USD has formed a Triangle pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 70% quality and 51% magnitude in the 84-bar period.
Weekly USD/CHF Emerging Pattern: Channel Down
USD/CHF has formed a Channel Down pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 69% quality and 51% magnitude on in the 70-bar period.
Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator