Fundamental Analysis

EUR
"The improvement was led by Germany, which saw the strongest gain in output of all eurozone states"
- Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson
The Eurozone's manufacturing sector is showing signs of edging back to recovery despite the region's ongoing debt crisis, as Markit’s purchasing managers’ index, which reflects manufacturing activity, came in at 47.9 in January, compared with 46.1 the prior month.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis


Technical Analysis

EUR/USD
"The euro's had a massive move higher, and we're waiting to see whether there's going to be some ECB comment on how the currency impacts growth"
- Nomura Securities (based on The Wall Street Journal)
After peaking to 1.371 at the end of the last week pair has started the week with a dip suggesting we might see a bearish correction after prolonged appreciation.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis

Expert Commentary

"What I think will happen is that a trend for weaker currencies, in order to support exports, will continue, probably, in the first part of the year"
- Cristian Maggio from TD Securities on emerging markets
In my view, the Indian Rupee seems to be the most attractive at the moment, as it is offering the highest value in total return terms.

Press Review

Europe
EU budget agreement "not there yet:" Hollande
President Francois Hollande said on Sunday France was keen to agree the European Union's 2014-2020 budget at a summit in Brussels next week, but there was still much work to be done.

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Market Research

Currency Index & Volatility: JPY
Behaviour of the Japanese Yen over the last five trading days was strongly bearish, perfectly reflecting the underlying fundamental reasons that are driving the currency lately.

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Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index

Global economic outlook
The current global economic outlook was little changed at 0.50 in December. The six-month and three-year global economic expectations deteriorated to 0.53 and 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index


Global Stock Market Review

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow plunged amid weak demand for riskier assets after disappointing US GDP reading. At the same time, Fed’s monetary policy decision lifted US blue chips.

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Commodity Overview

Precious Metals
Precious metals rallied on Friday, being boosted by the latest Fed’s decision to stick to its loose monetary policy. Weaker greenback coupled with mixed US labour market data also spurred the rally.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview

Trade Pattern Idea

EUR/SEK Emerging Pattern: Channel Up
EUR/SEK has formed a Channel Up pattern on the 4H chart. The pattern has 57% quality and 73% magnitude in the 158-bar period.

Weekly AUD/NZD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
AUD/NZD has formed a Triangle pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 87% quality and 100% magnitude on in the 133-bar period.

Economic Research

Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.

Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research

Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator

Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.

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