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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 31/01/2013
"This illustrates the double credit whammy in the Eurozone"
- Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING
The downturn in the Spanish economy worsened in the final three months of 2012, as the economy shrank more than expected, adding to concerns that 2013 is going to be another hard year for Mariano Rajoy.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
"I could imagine another 2-3% for the euro, but I don't expect a continuous rally. We do not expect the euro to go beyond $1.40"
- Swiss Global Asset Management (based on The Wall Street Journal)
It seems that pair took a brake during its rally and at the moment is hovering between monthly and weekly pivots at 1.355. Looking at the longer perspective it seems that pair might be up for a correction after a 4 week rally as Stochastic indicators sends sell signal.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Technical Analysis
"It is very hard to see any reason to be optimistic about Japan"
- Charles Robertson, Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital, on the world economy
Do you agree with the IMF's 3.5% global growth outlook for this year?
British Consumer Confidence Improves In January, GfK NOP Says
Confidence among British consumers improved more than expected in January as they turned optimistic about the economy's prospects, a survey by GfK NOP revealed Thursday.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Press Review
Currency Index & Volatility: USD
Since the directions the U.S. Dollar has been taking were different the last and the current weeks, up and down, respectively, the change of the currency index for the observed period amounted only to +0.15%.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market Research
Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global economic outlook
The current global economic outlook was little changed at 0.50 in December. The six-month and three-year global economic expectations deteriorated to 0.53 and 0.68, a Dukascopy Bank SA poll showed.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index
Global Stock Market Review
Dow Jones Industrial Average
US blue chips were mostly bullish on Tuesday on speculation that the Fed will leave its easy policy unchanged despite recent positive economic data. Encouraging quarterly reports coupled with strong US housing market numbers also lifted the US stock average.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Global Stock Market Review
Precious metals apart from palladium jumped after the data showed US GDP unexpectedly contracted by annualized 0.1% in Q4 of 2012, compared to a forecast of 1.1% growth. Adding to gains of the commodity group, the Fed decided to leave its ultra-easy policy unchanged.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Commodity Overview
Trade Pattern Idea
USD/CAD Emerging Pattern: Descending Triangle
USD/CAD has formed a Descending Triangle pattern on the 1H chart. The pattern has 82% quality and 73% magnitude in the 131-bar period.
Weekly AUD/NZD Emerging Pattern: Triangle
AUD/NZD has formed a Triangle pattern on the 1D chart. The pattern has 87% quality and 100% magnitude on in the 133-bar period.
Currency Pair Returns: Risks
The Dukascopy Bank SA research department continues its work on statistical properties of currency pair returns. The previous part of the research marked out relationships amongst returns. It was therefore dedicated to a somewhat determinate aspect of their behaviour. In this issue we look into uncertainty of the movements and investigate the parameters that can help reduce it.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Economic Research
Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator
Dukascopy Bank presents a new research product - the aggregate technical indicator. The new tool will indicate the strongest signals on major currency pairs. Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator for 30 min, 1H, 4H and 1D time frame charts for major pairs for the last 144 periods till 07:00 GMT.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator