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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 31/01/2013


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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 31-01-2013 09:21:43

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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 31/01/2013

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Today’s highlights:

·         KOF Leading Indicators (CH, 08:00 GMT)
·         Norwegian Unemployment Rate (Nor, 09:00 GMT)
·         Italian 10-Year BTP Auction (Ita, 10:10 GMT)
·         ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (U.S, 13:15 GMT)
·         GDP (QoQ) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
·         FOMC Statement + Interest Rate Decision (U.S, 19:15 GMT)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Bernanke will push on with purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage bonds and $45 billion a month of Treasuries, according to the survey of 44 economists, even as some Fed officials warn his unprecedented balance-sheet expansion will impair efforts to tighten policy when necessary.

Japan’s retail sales rose less than economists forecast in December, indicating that consumer demand remains weak in the world’s third-largest economy. Sales rose 0.1 percent from November, when they fell 0.1 percent, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today.

At his first cabinet meeting after two inconclusive elections and six weeks of turmoil had pushed Greece to the brink of exiting the euro, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said he’d had enough. In a seven-minute speech, he warned his ministers to deliver while reducing their pay by 30 percent. Elsewhere, the U.K. needs to do more to ensure local governments don’t suffer financial failure as a result of cuts to funding as demand for essential services increases, the National Audit Office said.


EUR/USD
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly lower at 1.34846 at the time of writing on profit taking ahead of the key risk events; the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, the GDP (QoQ), the FOMC Statement and the Interest Rate Decision in the U.S. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is expected to come at 165K from the 215K registered previously. The GDP (QoQ) is expected to come at 1.1% from 3.1% registered last quarter. For both data, a higher than expected reading should be bullish for the USD, while a lower reading should be bearish for the USD. As for the FOMC statement and the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the Interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. If the news comes as expectations, then it should be bearish for the USD.  Investors should remain prudent and adopt a wait and see strategy on the pair. Events likely to bring some slight fluctuations on the pair on the European session are the Spanish GDP (QoQ), the Italian Business Confidence, the Retail PMI, the Business and Consumer Survey and the Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone, the Italian 10-Year BTP Auction, the Italian 5-Year BTP Auction and the German 30-Year Bund Auction. The resistance level is at 1.35465 and the support level is at 1.34113.

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USD/CAD
USD/CAD: The USD/CAD was trading higher at 1.00249 at the time of writing as data showed the economy of the nation’s largest trading partner unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter. Today, some fluctuations are expected on the pair as a few important economic data will be released both in the Canada and the U.S.  Canada will release its GDP (MoM) figures which are forecast to show growth increased to 0.2 percent in November from 0.1 percent the month before, according to the median estimate of a Bloomberg survey of 24 economists. On the other hand, the U.S will release the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Forecast: 0.1% - Previous: 0.0%), the Personal Spending (MoM) (Forecast: 0.3% - Previous: 0.4%), the Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Forecast: 0.5% - Previous: 0.4%) and the Chicago PMI (Forecast: 50.5 – Previous: 50.0). The key risk event for the pair will be the U.S Initial Jobless Claims. U.S. applications for unemployment insurance payments rose by 21,000 to 351,000 in the week ended Jan. 26; the Labor Department is forecast to report today, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Yet again a wait and see approach is recommended. The resistance level is at 1.00497 and the support level is at 1.00056.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/638acf9149a341cbbe9dce0e6cff97e8.jpg


GOLD
Gold: Gold climbed for a third day toward a one-week high after data showed that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank and the Federal Reserve maintained asset purchases. The yellow metal was trading higher at 1679.175 at the time of writing. The market sentiments remain bullish on the commodity.  Events likely to affect the movement of the commodity are the Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Forecast: 0.1% - Previous: 0.0%), the Personal Spending (MoM) (Forecast: 0.3% - Previous: 0.4%), the Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Forecast: 0.5% - Previous: 0.4%) and the Chicago PMI (Forecast: 50.5 – Previous: 50.0) in the U.S. The key risk event will be the U.S Initial Jobless Claims. U.S. applications for unemployment insurance payments rose by 21,000 to 351,000 in the week ended Jan. 26; the Labor Department is forecast to report today, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Investors should closely monitor all these data to get visibility. Gold and the USD often trade inversely to one another. The resistance level is at 1685.953 and the support level is at 1662.743.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/54429d4b2b294bfa3ad72b96f1421f17.jpg




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