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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 30/01/2013


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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 30-01-2013 09:58:04

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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 30/01/2013

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Today’s highlights:

·         KOF Leading Indicators (CH, 08:00 GMT)
·         Norwegian Unemployment Rate (Nor, 09:00 GMT)
·         Italian 10-Year BTP Auction (Ita, 10:10 GMT)
·         ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (U.S, 13:15 GMT)
·         GDP (QoQ) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
·         FOMC Statement + Interest Rate Decision (U.S, 19:15 GMT)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Bernanke will push on with purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgage bonds and $45 billion a month of Treasuries, according to the survey of 44 economists, even as some Fed officials warn his unprecedented balance-sheet expansion will impair efforts to tighten policy when necessary.

Japan’s retail sales rose less than economists forecast in December, indicating that consumer demand remains weak in the world’s third-largest economy. Sales rose 0.1 percent from November, when they fell 0.1 percent, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today.

At his first cabinet meeting after two inconclusive elections and six weeks of turmoil had pushed Greece to the brink of exiting the euro, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said he’d had enough. In a seven-minute speech, he warned his ministers to deliver while reducing their pay by 30 percent. Elsewhere, the U.K. needs to do more to ensure local governments don’t suffer financial failure as a result of cuts to funding as demand for essential services increases, the National Audit Office said.


EUR/USD
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD was trading slightly lower at 1.34846 at the time of writing on profit taking ahead of the key risk events; the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, the GDP (QoQ), the FOMC Statement and the Interest Rate Decision in the U.S. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is expected to come at 165K from the 215K registered previously. The GDP (QoQ) is expected to come at 1.1% from 3.1% registered last quarter. For both data, a higher than expected reading should be bullish for the USD, while a lower reading should be bearish for the USD. As for the FOMC statement and the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the Interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. If the news comes as expectations, then it should be bearish for the USD.  Investors should remain prudent and adopt a wait and see strategy on the pair. Events likely to bring some slight fluctuations on the pair on the European session are the Spanish GDP (QoQ), the Italian Business Confidence, the Retail PMI, the Business and Consumer Survey and the Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone, the Italian 10-Year BTP Auction, the Italian 5-Year BTP Auction and the German 30-Year Bund Auction. The resistance level is at 1.35465 and the support level is at 1.34113.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/4785cd49f03bb15382d88fb5745f24d8.jpg


GBP/USD
GBP/USD: The GBP/USD was trading lower at 1.57471 at the time of writing on profit taking ahead of important economic data and news in the U.S. Today, the U.S will release its ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which is expected to come at 165K from the 215K registered previously, the GDP (QoQ) is expected to come at 1.1% from 3.1% registered last quarter. For both data, a higher than expected reading should be bullish for the USD, while a lower reading should be bearish for the USD. The U.S will also release its FOMC statement and the interest rate decision, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s latest round of bond buying will reach $1.14 trillion before he ends the program in the first quarter of 2014, according to median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the Interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. Volatility is expected on the pair today. Investors should remain very cautious. Before the key risk events in the U.S, UK will release its BOE Consumer Credit, the M4 Money Supply (MoM), the Mortgage Approvals, the Mortgage Lending and the Net Lending to Individuals. A report today may show U.K. mortgage approvals increased in December. In addition, the Bank of England policy maker David Miles said U.K. economic growth is likely to improve to between 2 percent and 2.5 percent a year within 18 months. Market sentiments remain fragile on the pair. The resistance level is at 1.57857 and the 1.56858.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/bee54c5dfad71197c6f068ee666f2ce8.jpg


OIL
Oil (WTI): Oil was trading higher at 97.495 at the time of writing after the U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 4.2 million barrels last week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed yesterday and before a Federal Reserve policy statement that may signal the central bank will keep adding economic stimulus in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude user. The Federal Open Market Committee will renew its commitment to asset purchases during a two-day meeting that began yesterday, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists. Other events likely to affect the commodity are the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which is expected to come at 165K from the 215K registered previously, the GDP (QoQ) is expected to come at 1.1% from 3.1% registered last quarter. The Energy Department report today may show supplies increased 2.5 million barrels, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Market sentiments remain bullish on the commodity. Other news is that China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, will increase its buying of crude from overseas this year by 7.3 percent, the largest gain since 2010, according to the median estimate of five analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The resistance level is at 98.253 and the support level is at 96.239.

http://www.forex-tribe.com/img_vrac_en4/ab8bba1c87f853caedce1793e6bbd31b.jpg




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