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#1 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 27-01-2010 16:13:02

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FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

In this thread, we will regularly post analysis and trading signals from the DailyFX analysts and systems strategies. Comments on the analysis are always welcome whether you agree or disagree.




 

#2 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 27-01-2010 16:15:13

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Euro Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision, British Pound Advances as BoE Holds Hawkish Outlook

The Euro bounced back from the low (1.4021) to remain little changed on the day, and the EUR/USD could face increased volatility over the next 12 hours of trading as the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 19:15 GMT.

Talking Points
•    Japanese Yen: Advances on Broad-Based Risk Aversion
•    Pound: BoE to Shift Policy as Economy Improves
•    Euro: ECB to Unwind Emergency Measures Further
•    US Dollar: FOMC, New Home Sales on Tap

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/01/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/mb01.27.10.jpg cannot be loaded.

Read more: DailyFX - Euro Holds Steady Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision, British Pound Advances as BoE Holds Hawkish Outlook http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … z0dpGukcoD




 

#3 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 28-01-2010 17:30:34

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USD Graphic Rewind 01.28
What is moving the US Dollar? We plot the major market events against price action in the US Dollar.

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/01/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/dxy1.28.jpg_49632475.jpg cannot be loaded.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … 01_28.html




 

#4 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 29-01-2010 16:22:33

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As Risk Continues to Recede, the Dollar Rallies and Dow Tumbles

It may seem a contradiction in theory; but in practice, a general slump in risk appetite can occur while economic indicators are pointing towards a slow but steady recovery. This is the scenario that is currently playing out; and the dichotomous situation is a reflection of how markets can grow to be over- or under-valued. What we are seeing at this stage in the game, is the adjustment of one to the other.

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•    As Risk Continues to Recede, the Dollar Rovers and Dow Tumbles
•    Financial Cracks Multiple: Greek Deficit, Japanese Credit, UK Banks
•    A Drop in Sentiment Comes amid a Recovery in Economic Activity

It may seem a contradiction in theory; but in practice, a general slump in risk appetite can occur while economic indicators are pointing towards a slow but steady recovery. This is the scenario that is currently playing out; and the dichotomous situation is a reflection of how markets can grow to be over- or under-valued. What we are seeing at this stage in the game, is the adjustment of one to the other. Under different circumstances, speculative interests could have been held up by an influx of investment capital long enough for yields and growth forecasts to catch up to the market’s prevailing level of ‘fair value.’ However, as it is, the recovery in economic activity and expected returns is running at too measured a pace to keep up with capital markets that have forged their most aggressive advance on record. And, considering the vast number of financial cracks that are opening up just beneath the market’s seemingly smooth surface, there is ample reason for traders to worry. And, worry they have these past few weeks. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the US dollar made their opposing moves as the winds of risk aversion started to pick up. The former has definitively cleared a two-month, 300-point rising trend channel in a nearly 6 percent plunge that has ushered the benchmark to two-and-a-half month lows. As the speculative capital is drawn out of relatively risky positions, the capital that was borrowed to fund these outlays is being repatriated. With a benchmark market rate that has held at a discount to event its Japanese counterpart (a historical funding currency) since late August, the US dollar was a prominent source of funds for leverage and loans. As fading sentiment encourages this reversal in capital flows, we will see the greenback advance. However, long-term traders will ask: how long will the dollar be a funding currency?

Read more: DailyFX - As Risk Continues to Recede, the Dollar Rallies and Dow Tumbles http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … cede_.html




 

#5 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 29-01-2010 17:35:34

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DailyFX released a new pivot point tool today

You can choose from 4 data types: Pivot Points, Camarilla, Woodie, and OHLC. I selected Pivot Points for the screenshot attached and circled in red the pivot point level. To the left of the pivot point level is the support levels and to the right is the resistance levels.

As a general overview, a pivot point takes yesterday's high, low, and close then divides it by 3 to give you the pivot point. Traders often look at the pivot point to distinguish whether the market is bullish or bearish. If the market is trading above the pivot, then it is bullish. If the market is treading below the pivot, it is bearish.

Here's where you can find it on the website http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_analysis/pivot_points




 

#6 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 01-02-2010 15:53:13

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.01.10

US Dollar Forecast to Appreciate versus Euro Ahead of NFPs Data
Euro: Can the ECB Make Conditions Even Worse for the Currency?
Japanese Yen to Gain as Carry Trades Unwind Amid Risk Aversion
British Pound: Outlook Hinges Upon BOE’s Decision on Rates, QE
Swiss Franc May Remain Under Pressure With SNB Threat
Canadian Dollar To Test Channel Formation as Outlook Improves
Australian Dollar: Why an RBA Rate Hike Will Likely Turn Out Bearish
New Zealand Dollar Risks Repeat of 1000 Pip Decline on Positioning

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/01/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/TOF128table.gif cannot be loaded.

Read more: DailyFX - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.01.10 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … z0eIQEUGTn




 

#7 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 02-02-2010 15:47:17

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Euro Tips Higher as Economic Outlook Improves, British Pound Holds within Previous Day’s Range

The Euro advanced for the second day to reach a high of 1.3957 during the overnight trade, and the single-currency many continue to retrace the sharp decline from the previous week as the economic docket reinforces an enhanced outlook for future growth.

Talking Points
•    Japanese Yen: USDJPY Continues to Hold Below 20-Day SMA (90.98)
•    Pound: Construction Weakens at Slowest Pace in Nearly Two-Years
•    Euro: Producer Prices Unexpectedly Increase in December
•    US Dollar: Pending Home Sales, API Inventories on Tap

Read more: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … nomic.html


USD Graphic Rewind 02.02

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Read More: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … 02_02.html




 

#8 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 03-02-2010 15:28:06

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Will Currency Markets ‘Smile’ on the US Dollar?

The US Dollar is likely to rise against most major currencies in 2010 according to a "smiling" model of the greenback’s performance at the beginning, middle and conclusion of major recessions in the United States.

The ‘Dollar Smile’ Hypothesis

Intuitively, one would suppose that the US Dollar should decline if the United States falls into a deep recession as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to stimulate economic growth, making the greenback unattractive relative to other currencies. However, a theory originally advanced by Stephen Jen, then an economist with Morgan Stanley, suggests something quite different. His logic goes as follows:

Phase 1: When the United States – the world’s largest economy and consumer market – falls into a deep recession, investors fearful that the downturn will spread globally sell off their holdings of risky assets (stocks, commodities) and move capital into the relative safety of cash and government bonds. The economic and geopolitical primacy of the United States along with the unmatched sophistication and liquidity its capital markets means that the cash and bonds of choice in this scenario are the Dollar and US Treasuries. This means that the greenback should rise if the US begins to experience a deep-enough recession to warrant fears of worldwide contagion.

Phase 2: As the pace of decline in economic activity invariably begins to slow, the markets become hopeful that the worst is over and capital begins to shift out of Dollar-denominated safe haven assets and back toward higher-risk and higher-return investments, sending US unit lower from its peak amid the crisis.

Phase 3: Finally, as economic recovery in the United States begins to gain momentum, investors start to speculate that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates (which were surely lowered amid recession) to rein in building inflationary pressure, sending the US Dollar higher once again.

Broadly speaking, history seems to bear out Mr Jen’s hypothesis. As illustrated in the chart below, data going back to 1970 shows that the US Dollar Index (an average of the greenback’s value against six of its top counterparts) is higher when US Gross Domestic Product growth rates are either sharply above or below the average of other G7 nations; it is lower when the difference in growth rates declines, revealing a “convex” relationship or a “smile”:

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Read More: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … e__on.html




 

#9 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 04-02-2010 16:01:11

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SSI: USDCAD Ratio Flips as Pair Continues to Retrace Decline from Earlier This Week

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:


USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.00 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 4.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.55 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 7.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 14.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 2.03 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.98 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 43.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.0% lower than yesterday and 22.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 5.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 26.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 25.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 16.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.40 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.0% higher than yesterday and 0.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 10.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.00 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 4.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 6.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.2% stronger than yesterday and 2.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.32 as 57% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.8% higher than yesterday and 19.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 18.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.8% stronger than yesterday and 9.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.58 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.60 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 18.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 41.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 11.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Discuss trading strategies with the SSI and other sentiment readings in the DailyFX forum!




 

#10 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 05-02-2010 15:32:44

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A Dollar Rally Based on Risk Trends Alone may not Last for Long

It is difficult to forecast where the markets will be in a month or three months when volatility is as high as it is today. However, when measuring the quality of a trend; it is imperative to gauge the fundamentals that will carry the US dollar that far out to better ascertain the stability and duration of the incredible rally that the benchmark currency has carved out since the second half of January.

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The Economy and the Credit Market    

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It is difficult to forecast where the markets will be in a month or three months when volatility is as high as it is today. However, when measuring the quality of a trend; it is imperative to gauge the fundamentals that will carry the US dollar that far out to better ascertain the stability and duration of the incredible rally that the benchmark currency has carved out since the second half of January. While there are a few fundamental signposts traders can point to when they are looking to qualify the greenback’s current bout of strength (the relief in a positive turn for NFPs or perhaps the better than expected 4Q GDP among other things); the real driver for this move is underlying risk appetite. Any doubts to this view can be cleared up by a quick review of the incredible correlation between all the major asset classes (on both sides of the risk spectrum). The US dollar is both a safe haven currency and its extraordinarily low market rates made it an ideal source of funding for the carry buildup through 2009. Both of these roles work in the benchmark’s favor now that sentiment has faltered and the effort to unwind extended yield positions is underway. Yet, the current correction in the market and underlying risk appetite will not last as long as the preceding build. The economy and rates are return are improving, just at a tempered pace. A point of equilibrium will be found within the first quarter; and valuation from there will rest with rates and economic progress. On that front, the dollar sits on a relatively strong recovery but Fed hikes look to be far off on the horizon.    

A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions     

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The fissures that have developed in the global financial market have turned into panic-inducing cracks. Like the Dubai World reaction this past November, market participants are now fearing the potential fallout from the European Union’s financially ailing members. Greece has been at the front of the media craze; but Spain, Portugal and others are suffering just as much under the strict rules of the collective. Given how interconnected the markets are, a serious problem any one of these economies or for the Euro Zone in general could create global shocks. However, these aren’t the only threats. Japan’s credit outlook has been downgraded, the UK is facing a general election and the US is struggling to work down its record deficit.     The world’s largest economy is roaring back to life – at least that is what the casual observer would deduce from the 5.7 percent annualized pace of growth reported in last week’s advanced 4Q GDP reading. However, a critical look at the data offers a more realistic view of the United States’ recovery. The first consideration is that the annualized figure is a comparison of conditions during the same period a year ago. Considering the pain the economy was in during this time, current activity levels do seem to be running at such a breakneck pace. However, a realistic view of the economy can be found in the tempered pace of consumer spending, the Fed’s report of tighter lending conditions and the 10 percent unemployment rate.

The Financial and Capital Markets

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The financial markets were shaken this past week. While the period would start off on a strong foot as the traditional benchmark assets would attempted to retrace some of the late-January losses; Thursday’s incredible plunge in sentiment and asset prices ushered in what may be the next wave of a larger bear wave. During this single day, the dollar pushed to its highest levels since July, the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its biggest single-day decline since July 2nd and gold caved over 4 percent. The severity of these moves is not a reflection of short-term catalysts but rather the long-term fundamental imbalance that had developed through much of 2009. With the return of speculative capital following the financial crisis of 2008, investors were looking to put their money back to work; but there is a relative bottleneck in terms of liquidity and price reaction. The influx of funds forced prices higher without the fundamental back to support the subsequent levels. Therefore, at the first sign of instability, investors that are already comfortable with cashing out will look to preserve profits or investable capital and send the financial markets on a rollercoaster.    


A Closer Look at Market Conditions
    

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Thursday’s epic declines brought the primary capital markets a big step closer to establishing a larger bear trend. The Dow’s channel break is now threatening 10,000. Gold has cleared three-month support near $1,075. Crude is just on the other side of the rising trend going back to the first quarter of 2009 now at $72.50. There are more than a few important securities that have already crossed the line; but these benchmarks all need to make their moves to crush all doubt that the bears are in control and investors have to move in to protect their accounts. It shouldn’t take long to confirm whether Thursday’s move was the catalyst to a bigger wave.     With Thursday’s plunge for capital markets and the mass withdrawal of speculative capital, it comes as no surprise that risk premiums have soared. The traditional indicators are all responding as expected. The CBOE VIX jumped over 4 percentage points to 26 percent and the DailyFX Volatility Index has itself spiked. However, these indicators are highly reactive and correct on a dime. It is the two-month high in corporate default swaps, the surge in risk reversals and the influx of capital into government debt (of those countries which are not at immediate risk of default) that offers the true reading of sentiment. Under these conditions, dramatic things can happen.

When do you think the Fed will hike rates? Join the debate in the DailyFX Forums!

Written by: John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Read more: DailyFX - A Dollar Rally Based on Risk Trends Alone may not Last for Long http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … ed_on.html

Last edited by DailyFX (05-02-2010 15:33:06)




 

#11 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 08-02-2010 19:56:02

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.08.10

US Dollar Extends its Run but How Long will Risk Aversion Hold?
Euro on the Ropes as Greece Debt Crisis Grows Contagious
Japanese Yen to Decline if Risk Recovery Lifts Carry Trades
British Pound May Remain Under Pressure As Yield Outlook Diminishes
Swiss Franc Forecast Dims on Persistent SNB Intervention
Canadian Dollar Maintains Channel Formation, May Test 200-Day SMA
Australian Dollar to Rebound if Stock Markets Correct Higher
New Zealand Dollar Suffers a Potentially Fatal Blow on Risk Collapse

Read more: DailyFX - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.08.10 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … z0eyKnyrkU
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DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Last edited by DailyFX (08-02-2010 19:56:43)




 

#12 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 09-02-2010 15:55:50

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Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Likely to Move Sharply Against Euro

Forex options markets volatility forecasts continue to trend higher, pointing to major moves in the US Dollar and other major currencies through the coming weeks’ trade. In fact, implied volatility levels on 3-month Euro/US Dollar options now trade near their highest levels since July, 2009 and underline market fears of continued volatility. Given such robust expectations, we would like to position ourselves for volatility-friendly Breakout strategies and price-following Momentum trading systems. Our fast-moving Breakout systems have seen impressive performance through the past week of trade, and similar price action in the week ahead would hopefully bring similar outperformance.

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Forex Trading Automated Systems Outlook

DailyFX+ System Trading Signals: Breakout2 is far and away the best performer through the past 7 days of trading, while Momentum1 has likewise racked up noteworthy gains through the recent stretch. The more nimble Momentum2 strategy has unfortunately underperformed because it is comparatively less likely to stick to a position for an extended period of time. Given a continuation of recent price action, we would continue to favor Momentum1 and Breakout2. The clear danger is that volatility results in choppy price action and produces poor trades in our price-following Momentum and Breakout strategies.

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Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90  trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.

Range High –  90-day closing high.

Range Low  –  90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Strategy – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com




 

#13 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 09-02-2010 22:54:58

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Premier Czech Retail Broker, Patria Direct, Launches Patria Forex with FXCM Technology

For Immediate Release:

Media Contacts: Jaclyn Sales, jsales@fxcm.com and Martin Kodýdek, kodydek@patria.cz

London and Prague, 9 February 2010—FXCM Holdings LLC, a leader in the retail forex business, today announces that Patria Direct, a leading retail securities dealer headquartered in the Czech Republic, will provide forex and CFD trading through a platform built, customised, and serviced by FXCM’s in-house developers. The collaboration combines FXCM’s established technology with Patria’s expertise in capital markets and professional, customer-focused service.

Patria Direct required a solid platform with fast execution, and chose FXCM’s No Dealing Desk technology to provide clients the opportunity to trade forex with transparent pricing, fair execution and tight bid/ask spreads. Patria aims to become the leading forex and CFD provider in the Czech and Slovak Republics.

Using FXCM’s award winning platform (named Best Retail FX Platform by FX Week’s 2009 e-FX Awards), clients of Patria Forex will have access to a wide range of forex pairs, including USD/CZK and EUR/CZK, as well as popular CFDs on equity indices and commodities.

Individuals interested in learning more about Patria Forex are welcome to visit www.patria-forex.cz, and to contact the Patria Forex team at info@patria-forex.cz, or at +420 221 424 221.

The launch of Patria Forex is a perfect fit with Patria’s aim to increase its product range, and with FXCM’s focus on expanding its geographic presence. FXCM expects to have branches or white label partners in most major European markets by the middle of 2010.

Patria Direct is fully licensed by the Czech National Bank for trading domestic and international securities. As a result of this cooperation, Czech and Slovak forex traders can trade with the same FXCM technology they may have used before, but with a local market leader under local regulation.

“Patria Forex is an excellent means of broadening our offerings, particularly to active traders,” said Oldřich Pavlovský, Managing Director of Patria Direct. “Cooperation with FXCM ensures top quality trading conditions for our clients, so overall it is a superb match with both our firm-wide standards and long-term strategy.”

“Patria’s selection is further evidence of the growing appeal of FXCM’s business model and technology,” said Drew Niv, CEO of FXCM. “We are very pleased to be cooperating with such a well-regarded institution.”

#                                  #                                  #

About Patria Direct:

Patria Direct, a.s. is part of the Patria Finance, a.s. group. Patria Finance was founded in 1994 as the first Czech full-service investment bank, and is wholly owned by the KBC Group, through its subsidiary KBC Securities. Patria Direct provides individual investors with access to the leading local and global capital markets, and has more than 13,000 clients trading with assets of over $1 billion.


About FXCM:

Forex Capital Markets (FXCM) is a leading global forex broker that caters to both retail and institutional clients. Founded in 1999, FXCM is one of the largest brokers, regulated by several of the world’s most respected financial authorities. Over 150,000 live accounts trade on platforms offered by FXCM. FXCM Holdings LLC has over $100 million in capital.

Trading FX, CFDs and Spread Betting on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.

Read more: DailyFX - Premier Czech Retail Broker, Patria Direct, Launches Patria Forex with FXCM Technology http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fxcm_news/ … z0f4uJNjIL




 

#14 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 10-02-2010 15:44:32

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Re: FXCM/DailyFX Signals and Strategies

USD Graphic Rewind 02.10

USD INDEX GRAPHIC REWIND

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/02/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/dxy2.10.jpg_49632475.jpg cannot be loaded.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the "distribution" list.

If you wish to discus this topic or any other feel free to visit our Forum page

Read more: DailyFX - USD Graphic Rewind 02.10 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … 02_10.html

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.




 

#15 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 11-02-2010 16:35:06

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US Dollar Trading Challenging on Forex Market Indecision

EURUSD – Euro Forecast Unclear On Trader Indecision
GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Remains Bearish
USDJPY – Japanese Yen May Trade Higher against US Dollar
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Forecast Uncertain Against US Dollar
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Likely to Strengthen Against USD
GBPJPY – British Pound Forecast Bearish versus Japanese Yen



View individual currency SSI charts in our FX Sentiment section

Interested in building your own SSI-based strategy? Request SSI data on our forex forum.

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/02/technical/ssi/table/SSI211table.gif cannot be loaded.

Choppy forex price action has made it a difficult week for SSI-based trading, and indeed the strength of SSI trading signals has moderated through recent trade. Volatile moves in the US Dollar and other major counterparts would have given an early signal to sell the resurgent currency through first days of the week, but as we now know the Greenback has resumed its rally against all but a handful of currencies. We advise traders to keep position sizes modest through especially unpredictable price action, and we may have to wait for more consistent moves to take a strong bias on the US Dollar and other currencies.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.




 

#16 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 12-02-2010 17:13:56

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Euro on the Ropes as Greece Debt Crisis Grows Contagious

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Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

-    Euro hits five-month low on S&P 500 tumbles
-    Fear of Greek debt crisis spreads to Spain and Portugal, sends Euro lower
-    Forex futures and options forecast for Euro shows many fear further losses


The Euro finished the week substantially lower against the safe haven US Dollar on sharp declines in the US S&P 500 and broad deterioration in financial market risk appetite. The ongoing budget deficit crisis in Euro Zone member Greece grew beyond its borders, causing a substantial widening in sovereign bond yield spreads for countries such as Portugal and Spain. Arguably the worst crisis to threaten the stability of the European Monetary Union to date, market reactions only exacerbated losses and the Euro was especially weak against the resurgent US Dollar.

Short-term forecasts subsequently depend on the trajectory of financial market risk sentiment, how it relates to European asset classes and the continued viability of the EMU. Though the 16-member Euro zone is no stranger to turmoil, sustained budget crises threaten to shake the foundations of the union and present real danger to the euro. Markets are subsequently likely to ignore anything but the biggest surprises in upcoming economic event risk and instead pay very close attention to ongoing activity in sovereign deficit troubles. The key question rolling forward is whether or not Greece can contain its growing budget deficit and whether any problems in one country can cause contagion across the broader Euro Zone. Similar budget issues in Portugal and Spain have come to the spotlight despite their comparatively manageable fiscal shortfalls and underline risks that fiscal troubles may spread to other EMU members.

Greece is in special danger not only due to the sheer size of the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, but any political efforts to institute cuts in spending and rein in the deficit have been met with fierce popular opposition. The political deadlock is especially troubling given that the Greek government will need significant funding in the months ahead as the deficit grows and interest rate payments skyrocket.  If markets are unwilling to purchase Greek debt, then it seems likely that the strongest EMU countries may need to bail-out the debt-ridden country. Hawkish rhetoric from European officials suggests that few can stomach any such action, and it will be critical to see any and all developments in what remains a volatile situation across the common currency zone.

Fundamental data in the week ahead will likely take a backseat to broader financial market activity, but it may be important to watch any surprises in upcoming Q4, 2009 Gross Domestic Product reports from individual countries and the broader Euro zone economy. Consensus forecasts call for the second consecutive quarter of Euro zone economic growth at a 0.3 percent QoQ change. Any especially sizeable surprises could have pronounced effects on domestic financial markets and—by extension—on the highly risks-sensitive Euro currency. Long-term correlations between the Euro/US Dollar exchange rate and the US S&P 500 remain near record-highs and emphasize the pair’s sensitivity to risk appetite. Suffice it to say, any strongly negative GDP data releases or continued EMU deficit struggles could have similarly dire effects on the Euro. – DR

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Read more: DailyFX - Euro on the Ropes as Greece Debt Crisis Grows Contagious http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … es_as.html




 

#17 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 15-02-2010 16:36:55

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.15.10

US Dollar Outlook Depends on Federal Reserve – What Can We Expect?
Euro Weighed by Growth, Interest Rate and Financial Stability Doubts
Japanese Yen: What Happens when the Carry Tides Change?
British Pound May Rebound But Trend Bias Favors Losses
Swiss Franc Strength Could Return Following SNB Intervention
Canadian Dollar Support May Come From Rising Inflation
Australian Dollar to Succumb to Risk Trends, RBA Minutes
New Zealand Dollar Ekes Out Gains but Risks Further Losses

error: image http://www.dailyfx.com/export/story-images/2010/02/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/TOF212table.gif cannot be loaded.

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.

Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Read more: DailyFX - Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.15.10 http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … ast__.html




 

#18 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 16-02-2010 16:08:17

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A Rise in Retail Sales and Optimism Could Extend Dollar’s Gains

This week’s calendar may seem tame compared to last week’s but there are still some significant releases that can have an impact on price action, especially since we will have to wait until mid-week for the first major event risk. The U.K. inflation report should garner significant interest with rates near the central bank’s threshold. Consumption figures in the world’s largest economy and EZ GDP are also potential market movers that could have broader implications.

•    BoE Quarterly Inflation Report  – February 10, 05:30 ET
Inflation is currently threatening to break above the BoE’s 3% threshold which requires Governor King o write a letter of explanation on how rate surpasses their 2% target by more than 12%. The central bank leader would also be required to outline a plan of action to bring rate in line with their goals. The MPC in their statements following last week’s rate decision expected that consumer price would return below their ideal level for a period, but that could follow further appreciation. If the report puts forth the notion that inflation will remain high for sometime then we could start to see interest rate expectations rise and sterling support generated. Conversely, signs that price growth is slowing will leave the door open for the central bank to leave rates on hold and potentially add to their QE efforts. A dovish outlook for rate should continue to weigh on the pound leading to additional downside risks.

•    Australia Employment Change (JAN) – February 10, 19:30 ET
The Australian economy is forecasted to have added jobs for a fifth straight month on January, as the land owns under continue to reap the benefits of robust Chinese domestic growth. Economists are looking for another 15,000 net hires which would be the lowest total for the period and a sign that growth is slowing. The RBA surprised markets last week by leaving their target rate unchanged at 3.75% following three consecutive hikes, as they look to remain cautious with downside risks remaining. Friday saw policy makers upwardly revise their inflation and growth forecasts for 2010 to 2.5% and 3.25% respectively. A strong labor report would validate those assumptions and raise the outlook for future yields which could send the Australian dollar higher. Conversely, a disappointing result could be a sign that companies have slowed their p[ace of hiring as China’s begins efforts to curb lending and tame growth in order to avoid inflationary pressures.

•    U.S. Advance Retail Sales (JAN) – February 11, 8:30 ET
U.S. consumer demand in January is forecasted to have risen 0.3% from the month prior as shoppers looked to take advantage of post holiday discounts. December saw an unexpected drop as Americans made the bulk of their purchases in November as it was anticipated that reduced inventories would leave short supply of the most desired gifts. A 2.6% drop in electronics purchases led to the overall 0.3% decline. ICSC chain store sales showed a 3.0% rise from a year ago as several retailers posted solid results. If Americans start to loosen their purse strings it will raise the outlook for domestic and global growth as the U.S. is the world’s largest consumer. Improved domestic demand will push upward pressure on consumer prices which could force the FOMC to start raising rates sooner than expected, which could generate US dollar support.

•    Euro-Zone GDP (4Q P) – February 12, 5:00 ET
Euro-zone GDP is expected to have risen for a consecutive quarter by 0.3% as government stimulus and improving global demand continue to drive growth. Last quarter saw a 0.6% contribution from government spending and exports add 3.1%. The manufacturing PMI reading rose to 52.4 from 51.6 in January showing that sector continues to expand which should be reflective in the fourth quarter results. However, a pull back in the service sector and flat retail sales are signs that domestic growth remains challenging which leaves little potential for an upside surprise. Continues growth in the region may be supportive of the Euro, but bullish sentiment for the single currency may be difficult to come by with the prevailing budget concerns of Greece, Portugal and Spain.

•    University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (FEB P) – February 5, 7:00 ET - 9:55 ET
The preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence report for February is the first look at American’s outlook. Optimism is forecasted to have risen for a fourth straight month to 74.8 from 74.4 which would be the highest since January, 2008. An improving outlook following strong consumption figures will raise the outlook for domestic growth. Consumers with a rosier disposition are more likely to absorb higher prices, especially if wages continue to rise as they did in January by 0.3%. Rising inflation expectations should translate into an improved outlook for yields which is bullish for the greenback.

See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.

Send questions or comments to jrivera@dailyfx.com


Read more: DailyFX - A Rise in Retail Sales and Optimism Could Extend Dollar’s Gains http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … Sales.html




 

#19 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 17-02-2010 15:59:36

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British Pound Weighed by BoE Comments, Euro Tips Lower Ahead of FOMC Minutes

The British Pound weakened during the overnight trade and slipped to a low of 1.5734 against the U.S. Dollar as the Bank of England maintained a dovish outlook for future policy.

Talking Points
•    Japanese Yen: Continues to Lose Ground
•    Pound: U.K. Jobless Claims Rise 23.5K in January
•    Euro: Trade Surplus Widens in December
•    U.S. Dollar: Housing Starts, FOMC Minutes on Tap



The British Pound weakened during the overnight trade and slipped to a low of 1.5734 against the U.S. Dollar as the Bank of England maintained a dovish outlook for future policy. The BoE minutes from the policy meeting earlier this month showed the MPC voted unanimously to suspend its asset purchase program and to keep the benchmark interest rate at the record-low of 0.50%, with the central bank stating that there was “no immediate need” to expand policy further as the economy emerges from the recession.

Moreover, policy makers said that the U.K. economy is “recovering, but only weakly,” and noted that the nation faces “considerable” headwinds as they expect credit conditions to remain tight “for some time.” In addition, the MPC did not see any “overwhelming risk” for inflation to undershoot the 2% target, but discussed whether expanding the asset purchase program would help to bring inflation back toward the desired level faster as they expect price pressures to weaken in the second-half of the year. At the same time, a report by the Office for National Statistics showed jobless claims unexpectedly increased 23.5K in January to 1.64M, which is the highest level since April 1997, while the claimant count rate held steady at 5.0% for the fifth consecutive month. As households continue to face a weakening labor market paired with tightening credit conditions, the Bank of England is likely to maintain a dovish outlook for future policy as they continue to see a risk for a protracted recovery, and expectations for further easing is likely to weigh on the exchange rate as investors scale back speculation for a rate hike later this year.

The Euro tipped lower against the greenback after failing to cross back above the 20-Day SMA (1.3856) during the overnight session, and the single-currency is likely to maintain the broad range carried over from the previous week as the European Union continues to mull over the bailout for Greece. As policy makers aim to support the economies operating under the single-currency, the European Central Bank is widely expected to hold borrowing costs at the record-low of 1.00% next month, and the Governing Council may keep rates on hold going into the second-half of the year as price pressures remain subdued. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed constructions outputs in the Euro-Zone increased 0.5% in December after contracting a revised 0.8% in the previous month, while the trade surplus widened to 7.0B after being adjusted for seasonality from a revised 5.3B in the month prior.

U.S. Dollar price action was mixed throughout the European trade, with the USD/JPY advancing to a high of 90.65, and the reserve currency is likely to face increased volatility going into the North American session as the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT. Ahead of the FOMC minutes, housing starts are forecasted to rise to an annualized pace of 580K in January from 557K in the previous month, while building permits are expected to fall to 620K from 653K in December. At the same time, the import price index is anticipated to climb 1.0% after holding flat during the final month of 2009, while industrial outputs are projected to increase 0.7% in January after rising 0.6% in the previous month. As growth prospects improve, we could see the greenback benefit from events scheduled for the early U.S. trade, but comments from the Fed are likely to have a greater impact on the currency market as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.


Will the EUR/USD Hold the Broad Range From the Previous Week? Join us in the Forum


Read more: DailyFX - British Pound Weighed by BoE Comments, Euro Tips Lower Ahead of FOMC Minutes http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamenta … y_BoE.html

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#20 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 18-02-2010 16:44:30

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Dollar Advance Torn Between Stalled Risk Trends, Hawkish Fed

Risk trends defined the dollar’s rally; and they can likely bring it to a close. Over the past week, the greenback’s status as a primary safe haven and funding currency was still in control; but the underlying currents of sentiment had shifted.

Be sure to join DailyFX Analysts in discussing their outlook for the Fed and its impact on the dollar in the DailyFX Forex Forum

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The Economy and the Credit Market

Risk trends defined the dollar’s rally; and they can likely bring it to a close. Over the past week, the greenback’s status as a primary safe haven and funding currency was still in control; but the underlying currents of sentiment had shifted. Despite a notable lack of progress from the European Union on the matter of a potential Greek default, the effort to unwind risky positions stalled this week and kept the greenback from overtaking a well-tested seven-month high. The market’s attention is highly fluid; and this could very well be a sign that global investors are moved on to different concerns of return or risk. However, considering the trend for the past month has been a steady decline in risk trends and a steady advance for the dollar over the past two months, it is more likely the case that this is merely a pause before additional concerns bubble to the surface. In the meantime, the US currency itself is finding greater and greater appeal on a purely fundamental basis. With the Euro Zone struggling with a potential structural crisis, the viability of diversifying reserve funds away from the US seems less straightforward. Furthermore, with China having to take active steps to cool its booming economy (to avoid a potential asset bubble) and dimming the global outlook along with it, the United State’s steady recovery looks far more stable and attractive. To top it off, interest rate speculation is starting to find a real foothold. According to the recently released FOMC minutes, the argument for beginning asset sales in the “near future” joins Member Hoenig’s vote to drop the language that rates will be held “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”

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A Closer Look at Financial and Consumer Conditions

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Despite the materialization of new and increasingly invasive threats to the stability of the world’s financial markets, risk appetite recovered modestly over the past week. However, considering the limited rebound in optimism to this point, this sense of stability and optimism is most likely temporary. What could potentially revive fear (or even trigger the next surge in risk appetite)? At the top of the list is the focus on Greek’s deficit and the EU’s strategy for stabilizing and isolating the member’s financial troubles before they become systemic. And, while this may be the height of global concerns now, Europe isn’t the only trouble spot. Sovereign credit risk is rising across the globe - and the US is no exception with record breaking deficits.       While speculatively-derived assets may be pricing in a V-shaped’ recovery for the US and the rest of the globe; fundamentals and policymakers’ actions have consistently projected a slow and uneven return to growth. In the short-term, the industrialized economy is still showing an exaggerated pace of recovery as we are comparing activity to the severely depressed levels of last year. Turning the focus to the medium-term, government stimulus is starting to be withdrawn; and weak employment, spending and credit conditions will be exposed. What’s more, extraordinary debt levels will encourage spending cuts and tax hikes – further dampening expansion. According to the FOMC minutes, the Fed nonetheless projects 2.8 to 3.5% 2010 growth.

The Financial and Capital Markets


The markets will always return to a state of normalcy. Whether that relates to a fair fundamental value or a standard level of volatility, the draw of a mean is ever present. This is the course the capital markets have run these past two months and this past week. So far this month, risk appetite has retraced and a fraction of the premium that was built up through the past year has been worked off. However, this has been a relatively steady trend itself; and this past week’s pick up in high-yield assets is a correction itself. And yet, the improvement in commodity and equity benchmarks was relatively mute. This period is therefore more representative of stabilization than it is a true direction of its own. The fundamentals behind the market are less than convincing. Macro economic data supports a muted recovery that is finding temporary support from government stimulus and that critically lacks consumer spending and access to credit. Further down the line, this will weigh on global wealth and temper earnings that have been found a passing boost on inventory replenishing. Add to that news that the largest 11 TARP banks in the US are holding $1.29 trillion in idle cash (the equivalent of 98 cents for every dollar of existing small business loans), and the outlook for higher returns and receding risks is certainly not balanced.

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#21 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 19-02-2010 17:13:05

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Risk Appetite and Carry Interest may soon Lose Their Balance as Greece and the Fed’s Hike Build Pressure

After a week of severe volatility as the market made a critical and dispassionately blunt assessment of the global market’s health, it was only natural that things would even out. With the winds of risk aversion blowing at a category 3 hurricane force, it wasn’t difficult to point out burgeoning problems like Greece’s potential default or China’s efforts to curb growth and speculation. However, without specific catalysts, a temporary balance would return.

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• Risk Appetite and Carry Interest may soon Lose Their Balance as Greece and the Fed’s Hike Build Pressure
• Removing Government Stimulus has Moved from Abstract Warnings to Clear Action
• With Financial Risks Growing Can Expected Returns Keep Pace?

After a week of severe volatility as the market made a critical and dispassionately blunt assessment of the global market’s health, it was only natural that things would even out. With the winds of risk aversion blowing at a category 3 hurricane force, it wasn’t difficult to point out burgeoning problems like Greece’s potential default or China’s efforts to curb growth and speculation. However, without specific catalysts, a temporary balance would return. Does this mean that the we have found a level of equilibrium for the immediate future? No. The market simply awaits the next trigger and clear bearing on the building or unwinding of speculative positions before the crowd throws its conviction behind the one direction or the other. And, there are plenty of individual financial concerns that can spark the contagion of outright panic – that is as long as investors are alert and susceptible to bearish news. Looking outside of the fundamental tides that can feed risk aversion and risk appetite; we can see that traders are exposed because of the overly optimistic bearing through the market itself. In terms of progress, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Carry Trade Index have barely retraced the record-breaking advances they posted through 2009. Historically, the 2009 rally was the most aggressive in history. Born of a massive return of speculative capital following a unprecedented crisis (the Great Depression didn’t have the speculative concentration nor the global interconnectedness that the markets encompass today); this influx inflated asset values beyond what the feeble economic recovery could promise. After having gone through the stages of a staunched inflow of capital, tempered expectations of quick capital gains and an admission of linger fundamental problems; we are now to the point where expectations are being reconciled to reality.

Taking a look at the macro economy and turning over a few rocks will yield no shortage of fundamental troubles. However - as anyone that has enough experience with the markets can tell you - sentiment and the promise of returns can keep investors blissfully ignorant of the risks. This is the case until the outlook for returns throttles back or the risks grow too large to ignore. Right now, we are experiencing a bit of both of these conditions. Having stalled out at the end of the year, the benchmark asset classes are no longer producing capital returns which leaves market participants dependent on yield income. Yet, dividends, coupon and interest payments are tied to an exceedingly frail economy that cannot support the necessary returns to support current levels. Therein lies the vulnerability to signs that conditions are worsening. Currently there is no shortage of severe threats to financial stability. Recently, the Federal Reserve took the remarkable step of hiking the US discount rate. This is not the same thing as raising the Federal Funds rate; but the implications domestically and global are nonetheless profound. The world’s largest central bank took a clear step towards withdrawing stimulus by reducing banks’ access to cheap loans. Realistically, this is just another step in a gradual shift worldwide to rollback the safety net and allow the market to stand on its own. Perhaps the more explosive risk though is the situation in the European Union. Greece needs capital to roll out its existing debt and establish a recovery. At the same time, the nation has to comply with the EU’s rules. There is no scenario where everyone comes out unscathed. What makes it worse, Greece isn’t the only burden for the EU.

Is Carry Trade and risk appetite rising or falling? Discuss how to trade yields and market sentiment in the DailyFX Forum

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#22 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 22-02-2010 19:58:27

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Forex Weekly Trading Forecast - 02.22.10

US Dollar: Policy Tightening and Mounting Risk Build Bullish Pressure
Euro Forecast Unclear Amidst Greek Debt Crisis
Japanese Yen Torn Between Fed Policy Outlook, Risk Sentiment
British Pound May Benefit From Revised 4Q Growth Figures
Swiss Franc to Maintain Near-Term Trend Against U.S. Dollar, Euro
Canadian Dollar Benefits from its Fundamentally Stable Position
Australian Dollar Forecast to Gain as S&P 500 Hits Highs
New Zealand Dollar to Gain as Risk Recovery Resumes

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DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

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Last edited by DailyFX (22-02-2010 20:00:19)




 

#23 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 23-02-2010 16:56:27

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Curreny Longs Caught in Nasty Bull Trap

MORNING SLICES

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Bull Trap - "A false signal indicating that a declining trend has reversed and is heading upwards when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. "

FUNDYS

Quite a session of trade in Europe, with many market participants feeling the burn of the nasty whipsaw price action. Initially, it appeared as though we could be on the verge of seeing a fresh wave of corrective upside in currencies, with the break back above the 10-Day SMA in Eur/Usd triggering a wave of currency buying just ahead of the European open. However, after ascending just shy of 1.3700, renewed selling pressure kicked in, with the pair reverse course sharply to trade back below 1.3600 and to fresh daily lows.

Relative Performance Versus USD on Tuesday (As of 9:40GMT) –

1)    YEN               +0.16%
2)    AUSSIE         -0.11%
3)    CAD               -0.16%
4)    EURO            -0.19%       
5)    KIWI              -0.27%
6)    SWISSIE       -0.35%   
7)    STERLING     -0.47%


Read more: DailyFX - Curreny Longs Caught in Nasty Bull Trap




 

#24 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 24-02-2010 15:48:38

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US Dollar to Decline on Extreme Forex Positioning

Forex futures and options markets have aggressively bet on a US Dollar recovery against the Euro and other key counterparts, leaving scope for a short-term correction in the context of a broader Greenback recovery. Indeed, CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows Non-Commercials hold a record notional net-short position in the Euro against the US Dollar, leaving relatively little room for further selling.

Forex futures and options markets have aggressively bet on a US Dollar recovery against the Euro and other key counterparts, leaving scope for a short-term correction in the context of a broader Greenback recovery. Indeed, CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows Non-Commercials hold a record notional net-short position in the Euro against the US Dollar, leaving relatively little room for further selling. The speed of the Dollar recovery tells us that this is the turn we have long been waiting for, but many signs point to short-term consolidation or pullbacks before the USD can continue higher.

Read a how-to guide on understanding our-Forex Options Weekly Forecast report or view a video on the same. Discuss outlook for individual currency pairs in our forex forums.

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Euro / US Dollar Options Analysis

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Forex futures and options traders remain extremely long the US Dollar against the Euro, and we see scope for further short-term USD losses within the scope of a broader rally. Indeed, last week we wrote that the EURUSD was likely to bounce from its recent lows or at the very least slow its descent. A pickup in Forex options risk reversals suggests that EUR bears have taken their foot off of the accelerator, and we are likely to see further short-term consolidation. A drop in overall volatility expectations supports this thesis and we may see the EURUSD drift higher through the short term.

Read more: DailyFX - US Dollar to Decline on Extreme-Forex Positioning




 

#25 ⇑ Haut ⇑ 26-02-2010 16:28:17

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Scandi Daily 02.26


OVERVIEW – The krona has managed to just squeak out the top performing currency spot on the day against the buck, with the single currency up some 0.36%, just ahead of Kiwi. The krone has also recovered a bit, and it seems as though the currency markets in general could be poised for some corrective upside against the buck. As always however, and particularly in this region, the moves will be predicated on global risk appetite and risk aversion themes. We would however recommend that traders look to build long Eur/Sek positions at current levels, with the cross severely oversold and in need of some major corrective upside.

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Eur/Sek Latest bearish price action has delayed hope for an immediate recovery, with the market extending declines to fresh yearly lows through 9.75. Nevertheless, with daily studies trading in deep oversold territory, the risk of a major corrective rally is significant, and we continue to like the idea of looking to build a long position at current levels. Only a close back below 9.70 would give reason for concern. Longs at current levels should continue to hold.

Eur/Nok While daily studies are not as overdone as in Eur/Sek, we contend that a meaningful low has also been put in by the 8 handle last Wednesday and Thursday, with Thursday’s strong bullish outside day confirming bias. From here, look for some renewed strength back towards the recent range highs at 8.26 over the coming days.

Usd/Sek our view is highly constructive at current levels and favors continued USD appreciation over the coming weeks.  We contend the market is attempting to carve out a major base rather than in the process of some bearish consolidation. Any setbacks are expected to be well supported by 7.00, with a higher low sought out ahead of the next major upside extension  towards 7.50-75 over the medium-term.

Usd/Nok has just managed to clear the multi-week range highs by 5.90 and we believe this now opens some fresh medium-term upside over the coming weeks. Look for a higher low to now carve out by 5.80 in favor of a bullish resumption back above 6.05 over the coming days.

Gbp/Nok in the process of rolling back over after stalling by the multi-day range highs just over 9.50. Look for the latest pullback into the 9.10-15 area to now be well supported ahead of an eventual sustained break above 9.50 which should open some medium-term gains towards the 10 handle over the coming weeks. Only a close back below 9.00 ultimately gives reason for concern.

Nok/Jpy has been well confined to a very choppy range trade over the past several weeks, largely defined between 15.00 and 16.50. Rallies have once again been well propped in the 15.00 area ahead of the latest bounce back into the range. From here, we recommend continuing to play the range.

Read more: DailyFX - Scandi Daily 02.26




 

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