You doubt that if moving averages are bullish, we're in a bull market and whether they are bearish, we are in a bear market. We are in the presence of a trend.The market is in trend. The moving averages are used to take a position on the market because they deliver buy or sell signals in two forms:
- Depending on the price, the moving average is compared to the price.
A buy signal is given when the price cross over the moving averages on a rise. The strength of the signal is function of the moving average. More moving average is long term, the stronger the buy signal is strong. Another factor is also involved. If the moving average acted as a resistance before, to get over it increase the strength of the signal.
A sell signal is given when the price cross over the moving averages on a drop. The strength of the signal is function of the moving average. More moving average is long term, the stronger the sell signal is strong. Another factor is also involved. If the moving average acted as a support before, to get through it increase the strength of the signal.
- Depending on another moving average, moving average is compared to another moving average.
If a short-term moving average crosses on a rise a long term moving average, this gives a strong buy signal on the short term. Thereafter, more space there is between the two moving averages, more bullish is the trend.
If a short-term moving average crosses on a drop a long term moving average, this gives a strong sell signal on the short term. Thereafter, more space there is between the two moving averages, more bearish is the trend.
Moving averages can also be flat, it means that the market is undecided and that the market is moving in a range. The buy or sell signal is given by the intersection of the moving average with one of the two bands of the range. Several signs show that we are witnessing a phase of indecision:
- Spacing moving averages after the crossing
- Multiple crossing of moving averages
- Fast change of moving average after the crossing.
You know almost everything about moving averages. A final piece of advice seems necessary. In practice, when a buying or selling signal is given by moving averages, the crossing is often followed by a pull back. This means that the price or the moving average will get back to the moving average or the price crossed, and thereafter make a reversal in the side of the signal.
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