Markets are trading in a lethargic manner as participants continue to nervously take on risk-correlated trades. The move toward risk is logical because without the massive sovereign crisis fear hovering over the market like the Sword of Damocles, one needs to consider the fundamentals - particularly monetary policy, as the core driver. Overall, the rate at which central banks are mopping up excess liquidity has been slower-than-expected with the BoE and Fed still discussing the potential for further QE.
In this era of ultra-low policy rates, risk taking will be encouraged. In the past few days, we’ve seen Eurozone sovereign spreads narrow considerably, the VIX index is trending lower along with decreased FX volatilities and global equity markets have demonstrated a resilience to bearish news. If corporate earnings come out strong, this could be the start of a summer rally, however we’re not so sure. Our view is that the fears surrounding sovereign risk may have subsided for the time being, but will most likely return this fall.
Even with the recent stint of positive news, foreboding signs are on the horizon. The Fed’s Beige book released yesterday reported that the US recovery remained on track but has begun to actively slow. The notion of a US slowdown was reinforced by recent US data, including yesterday’s durable goods figures.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised its policy rate 25 bps to 3.00% as we had predicted and the accompanying statement asserted that future growth prospects had deteriorated considerably. Traders rapidly paired down their interest rate expectations which in turn weighed on the NZD.
Governor King’s comment seemed to slam into the sterling market, which was curious because his remarks were really nothing new or original. He recommended caution over reading too much into the strong Q2 GDP figures and reaffirmed that inflation remained finely in check. Paul Fisher stated that the global outlook had weakened and David Miles resonated with the most dovish view of all – that inflation would taper off and the current ultra-loose policy was correct.
The combination of all these comments hit the GBP value like a sledge hammer. It wasn’t until Sentance’s hawkish comments that the “current policy setting was extreme” that some sanity was regained in the FX market.
We are convinced that the market is now underestimating the strength of the UK recovery and that the current downtrend in inflation will flat line and then begin to move higher. The BoE interest rate path should give GBP a boost in the mid-term.
Otherwise, there’s a frenzy of data to be released during the European session today and after that it’s onto corporate earnings. We will continue to use equity market activity as a compass for FX directions. Correlation remains particularly high between the EURUSD and S&P and should thus be traded accordingly.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 07:30 SEK Jun retail sales, +0.6% m/m EXP; prior +1.6% m/m, +2.7% y/y. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment rate, 7.6% sa EXP; prior 7.7%. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment, nsa and sa; prior 3.153 mln, 3.23 mln. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment - change, -10k sa EXP; prior -21.0k. 08:00 EUR ITA Jun wages, +2.6% y/y EXP; prior +0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y. 08:30 GBP Jun consumer credit, GBP300 mln EXP; prior GBP331 mln. 08:30 GBP Jun mortgage appl/loans, 49k/GBP1 bln EXP; prior 49.81k/GBP1.184 bln. 08:30 GBP Jun money supply; prior unch. 09:00 EUR Jul business climate index, 0.39 EXP; prior 0.37. 09:00 EUR Jul consumer sentiment index, -14.0 EXP; prior -17.0. 09:00 EUR Jul economic sentiment index, 99.1 EXP; prior 98.7. 09:00 EUR Jul industrial sentiment index, -5.0 EXP; prior -6.0. 09:00 EUR Jul services sentiment index; prior 4.0. 12:30 USD Initial jobless claims, thous (4wma) 24-Jul 23:01 GBP GfK consumer confidence survey, bal Jul
EurUsd We’ve had another day of tight range trading in EURUSD, and for the time being there is a ceiling of resistance at 1.3046 that is blocking the path higher. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days. Once we clear 1.3046, the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support just below at 1.2940 –should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then eye technical levels below at 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd There were a few hairy moments yesterday for GBPUSD as BoE’s King hit the newswires to downplay the significance of the latest GDP reading, but tellingly the temporary sell-off was met with eager buyers clambering to get in on this impressive GBPUSD recovery, and the pair has since pushed to fresh highs of 1.5655. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5385 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as decent support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5545, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (yesterday’s low). Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5950) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
UsdJpy USDJPY may have slumped in a rather ungainly fashion back below 87.50 in the past few sessions, but the pair is at the very least continued carve out successively higher highs and higher lows since the double bottom around 86.25 levels. The last rally (which topped out at 88.11) was thwarted by a pretty formidable confluence of resistance levels (8-week downtrend resistance, top of 1-week uptrend channel and 88.00 pivot), but we still believe the bulls can overcome these barriers on a subsequent re-test now they are more comfortably spaced out. The 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.90 while the top of the current uptrend channel has climbed to 88.25; however thereafter few levels are discernible ahead of our triangle target 88.85. Should the rally have the momentum to continue beyond there, look for sellers at 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). The most convincing support level to try getting in on the long trade appears to be the lower edge of the 1-week uptrend which is now seen at 87.10-15 (already had one test of that area this morning), then further supports anticipated at 86.82 (Tuesday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf Despite the bullish engulfing candlestick on Monday/Tuesday of this week AND the important break of the 1-month downtrend channel, the bulls have looked lacklustre in the past 24 hours and have sloppily allowed the 1-week uptrend to break down around 1.0560. This conclusively negates the bullish flag pattern we had proposed yesterday, and seems compelling argument to move to the sidelines for the time being on this one and wait for more favourable risk-reward trades to present themselves. Buyers should be able to catch the fall if it extends to 1.0450, and an extremely important support still remains at 1.0400 so we would look to resume buying down at those levels. Strong selling interest may once again cap rallies at 1.0640-47 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average), and given the propensity of July/August markets to be directionless and range bound, we would actually look to sell at those levels rather than look for a continuation higher. IF the bulls manage to pull their fingers out and effect that break higher, a powerful resistance level around 1.0700 is backed up but the top of the 1-week uptrend at 1.0710.
The parity broke its bullish slant and 0.72 acted as support. So, we are now neutral on the parity between 0.72 and 0.73. We advise to wait a breakout of one of these two bands to take position: - Long if 0.73 is broken - Short if 0.72 is broken
EUR-USD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.3036 - 1.3076 from 1.2981 or 1.2960. After which a downside move is expected.
USD-CHF There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.0595 or even 1.0614. Supports at 1.0552 and 1.0528 zone.
GBP-USD While below 1.5619 - 1.5643 it is more likely to fall further towards 1.5573 or 1.5551. Premature rise above 1.5643 could see it rising above 1.5687 zone.
USD-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 87.79 or even 87.96. Supports at 87.37 and 87.12 zone.
USD-CAD It should trade higher to 1.0420 while 1.0360 or 1.0344 offers support. Stop loss below 1.0328 zone.
NZD-USD Support at 0.7264 or 0.7239 should hold the downside for a correction to above 0.7321 zone.
AUD-USD Market should pop up towards 0.8979 or 0.9002 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 0.8920 - 0.8884 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
EUR-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 114.53 - 115.39 from 113.45 or 113.02. After which a downside move is expected.
EUR-CHF Preferred view is for a fall to 1.3724 - 1.3692 while 1.3775 - 1.3794 area resists. A clear break of 1.3857 would be bullish.
EUR-GBP Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.8308 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.8360. Fall below 0.8285 would cancel this scenario.
EUR-CAD It should try higher up to 1.3504 - 1.3543. Entry point 1.3466 or 1.3444. After this rise, a correction is expected.
EUR-NZD Current upmove should be ended around 1.7900 - 1.7960. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.7795 - 1.7751 zone.
EUR-AUD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.4632 or 1.4640 if support around 1.4510 hold. After which a pullback to 1.4510 - 1.4464 zone is possible.
GBP-CHF A corrective rise should ideally test 1.6544 or even higher than 1.6605. Supports are at 1.6425. Stop loss below 1.6397 zone.
GBP-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 136.99 or even 137.35. Supports at 136.17 and 135.71 zone.
GBP-CAD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6221 or 1.6261 if support around 1.6149 hold. After which a pullback to 1.6149 - 1.6120 zone is possible.
GBP-AUD Current rise should end around 1.7576. Objectives of this downmove are 1.7301 or 1.7138. A rise above 1.7688 is again bullish.
CAD-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 85.13 - 86.07 from 84.10 or 83.63. After which a downside move is expected.
NZD-JPY There is bearish potential for a fall to 63.18 while 63.86 - 64.07 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 64.07 or 64.28 is expected.
AUD-JPY No comment!
XAG-USD It may meet resistance in 17.50 - 17.52 zone for a drift down to 17.31 zone, after which bounce to 17.71 is anticipated.
XAU-USD It should try higher up to 1164.96 - 1167.60. Entry point 1162.32 or 1160.31. After this rise, a correction is expected.
The Australian and Kiwi dollars were the big losers on Wednesday on the back of a weaker Australian CPI report and dovish interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
AUD/USD shed 92 pip on the back of yesterday’s weaker than expected CPI report. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter growth rate in second quarter CPI, despite calls for an increase to 1.0% from 0.9% in Q1. Annual CPI growth moved up to 3.1% from 2.9% in Q1, despite calls for 3.4%. The pair last traded down 88 pips at 0.8936.
Meanwhile, NZD remains under pressure after a dovish interest rate decision earlier on Thursday. Although the RBNZ hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.00%, as expected, central bank Governor Alan Bollard said the pace of monetary policy expansion may slow. He added that the economic outlook for the region has softened, with domestic demand subdued, and the New Zealand dollar stronger than what is consistent with the fundamentals. NZD/USD last traded lower by 119 pips at 0.7213.
Meanwhile the USD remained on top, outperformed only by the yen after core durable goods unexpectedly fell by 0.6% despite calls for a 0.4% gain. Also, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Economic Report said that economic activity in the U.S. slowed in some areas.
Looking ahead, focus will be on a barrage of euro zone climate indicators as well as U.S. weekly jobless claims.
Risk correlated trades had a strong showing yesterday as banking stocks rallied and concerns over the inadequacies of the Stress Test dissipated. The USD lost ground to both the GBP and EUR while longs in JPY and CHF were equally cut. Risky trades continued to benefit throughout the trading day in spite of US Consumer confidence data coming in negative. We especially like the appreciation we saw in sterling. We suspect there has been a fundamental shift in GBP prospects due to the sturdy GDP reading last Friday and we anticipate further upside to sterling in the near-to-mid term.
Asian equity markets are having a roaring day and the positive effects are spilling over into European indexes. We are seeing other encouraging signs as VIX dropped below its 200-day moving average and Gold continues to come under heavy selling pressure. There has been a noticeable lack of 1st tier economic data and we are cautious in accumulating too much risk just yet. These are the dog days of the trading summer – as such, low liquidly and inconsistent participants will continue to be as important as real data.
During the Asian session, the big news was the disappointing Australian Q2 CPI reading which came in well below markets expectations. The market was quick to shift rate hike expectations from August to later in the fall (ACM expects a November hike). The AUDUSD dropped like a rock to .8923 from .9020 in response to the release. With the inflation rate now within the RBA’s 2-3% target, markets now pricing in a late fall hike. The large AUD interest rate differential will further erode, which in turn will lend added support to currencies like CAD and NOK. Look for CAD & NOK to gain in the near term.
We are still highly constructive on the global economy and suspect commodities prices to trend higher which should give AUD a boost against the USD. With all the excitement around AUD, the CPI watchers will now be turning their gaze toward New Zealand.
In NZ, July business confidence and activity outlook surveys showed a significant deterioration from the June results. Analysts are in unanimous agreement that the RBNZ will raise the OCR 25 bps to 3.00% at its policy meeting tonight. Market and media interest will be focused on the accompanying statement released with the rate hike. Although recent NZ CPI readings have come in lower-than-expected, the markets are still pricing in roughly 75 bps worth of hikes between now and the year’s end.
We believe that the RBNZ statement will sound slightly more dovish, signaling a minor shift in interest rate trajectory as policy makers prepare for a global economic slowdown later this year. The sudden adjustment in rate path should translate into short-term NZD weakness, especially against the AUD.
As for today, US Durable Goods data is due to be released as investors continue to look for directional signals for the US recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book will likely reflect recent data softness.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 00:00 EUR GER Jul HICP - prelim, +0.2% m/m, +1.1% y/y exp; prior unch, +0.8%. 07:00 EUR ESP Jun retail sales; prior -1.9% y/y. 08:45 GBP BoE Gov King, other MPC member testimony before Parliament. 10:00 GBP Jun Land Registry house prices. 12:30 USD Jun durable goods orders, +2.9% m/m exp; prior -0.6%. 12:30 USD Jun - ex-transport, +1.0% m/m exp; prior +1.6%. 18:00 USD Fed Beige Book release. 18:30 USD Senate vote on Fed nominees 21:00 NZD RBNZ interest rate announcement, % 3.00% exp, 2.75% prior
EurUsd The symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart is still very much in play, and thus far we have seen a couple of nudges through the 20 Jul high at 1.3028. We are long from the original break above 1.2950 (there was even the re-test of that level yesterday which we suggested as a chance to add to longs) and expect the triangle to yield a target in the region of 1.3290. At present the bulls are steadying themselves above 1.3000 so further progress has been somewhat laboured; the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support at 1.2905 –but should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then expect technical levels below at 1.2793 (Friday’s low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd GBPUSD continues to march unwaveringly higher, making easy work of the tangle of technical resistance levels between 1.5525-75 (15 April high, 200-day moving average and 23 Feb high) and going on to touch 1.5627 this morning. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5350 (coinciding with a recent pivot level) to get long, and set a stop through 1.5300. Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, then only uptrend resistance (currently at 1.5905) before the psychological significant 1.6000. Supports now seen below at 1.5525, 1.5450 and 1.5350.
UsdJpy Finally, a breakout from the 86.25 –87.75 range; and as expected, this has occurred on the topside –in the process activating a double bottom pattern we proposed earlier in the week. Given the depth of the two troughs we should therefore anticipate a target around 88.85, and after this morning’s break above the significant 88.00 pivot level, that now seems an extremely attainable goal. Sellers may still hinder progress up through the remaining trendline resistance around 88.45 but then the next discernable levels are all beyond our target; 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). Adding conviction to our view is the bullish engulfing candlestick carved out on the daily chart which suggests the bears have become overwhelmed and further upside is likely. Dips back towards the 87.75 breakout level will likely meet good bids, with the supports below there at 86.82 (yesterday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf The bulls finally got a better grip on USDCHF yesterday, and not only managed to take out the stubborn 1.0565 resistance level, but then to print a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. We now see a fresh bullish flag pattern possible on the hourly chart which would suggest that on a break above 1.0620 we should go long and aim for a target around 1.0770. Standing in our way before that would be yesterday’s high 1.0640 (roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 1.0644), the top of the 1-week uptrend channel at 1.0685, then the major 1.0700 level. Bidders are very likely to lurk around 1.0565 where the old resistance level once stood, then 1.0450and 1.0400.
The parity is currently testing a pullback on the support at 0.73 and also on its bullish slant. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as the slant is support. If the slant is broken, only the breakout of 0.7243 will allow us to trade short positions.
The U.S. Dollar advanced on Wednesday, gaining 1% against the Japanese Yen and pushing the EUR back under $1.30, after a report showed U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected, pressuring equities lower and reducing investors' appetite for risky assets. Economic News
USD - Dollar Rises on Demand for Greenback's Safety The U.S Dollar advanced against most of its major counterparts as a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment to a 5 month low revived demand for the relative safety of the world's main reserve currency. The U.S. consumer confidence for July fell to its lowest level since February with all eyes on consumer durable goods numbers for June later in the session for more evidence about the world's largest economy. The greenback advanced as much as 1.3% to 87.97 Yen in the biggest intraday gain since June 2. Treasury two-year note yields increased as much as 0.06 percentage point to 0.64% in the biggest intraday climb since June 10. The USD/JPY recent weakness has been related to the very low level of U.S. yields, analysts said. And the fact that the yields are rebounding at this stage is likely to lend some support to the pair.
EUR - EUR Erases Gains; Slips Below $1.30 level The European currency hovered below a key level on Wednesday, running into profit taking after it hit a 11-week high against the U.S. Dollar, with attention turning toward the Australian Dollar ahead of crucial inflation data. The EUR slipped below the psychological, and technically crucial, level of $1.30, having hit a high of $1.3045 on Tuesday.
The 16-nation currency held some impressive gains against the Japanese yen, trading above 114 yen after having jumped over 1% on Tuesday to a 2-month high. Traders said the EUR/JPY looked increasingly bullish on charts, especially after it rose above 113.50 yen where it had met lots of offers from Japanese exporters.
Moreover, despite the EUR/USD easing from highs, sentiment toward the single currency remains bullish in the short term with a number of commentators surprised by the resilience of the Euro-Zone economy. On the other hand, doubts remain over the ability of the U.S. economy to avoid a slowdown. Market players say that a sustained break above the $1.30 level could place the single currency against the greenback in a new $1.30-$1.35 trading range in the coming weeks.
JPY - Yen Rises on Safety Demand Japan's currency gained versus all 16 major counterparts ahead of U.S. reports in two days which are forecasted to show economic and business activity grew at a slower pace. The Yen rose from near a two-month low against the EUR on speculation signs of a slowing U.S. recovery will spur demand for safer assets.
The Yen typically strengthens in times of financial turmoil as Japan's trade surplus makes the currency attractive as it means the nation does not have to rely on overseas lenders. The Yen traded at 87.77 per Dollar from 87.90. The currency gained to 113.95 per EUR from 114.24 yesterday, when it reached 114.42, the weakest level since May 18.
Crude Oil - Oil Falls a 2nd Day after Consumer Confidence Drops Crude Oil declined for another day after an industry report showed U.S. crude inventories rose and the Conference Board said confidence among the nation's consumers fell, signaling growth and energy demand may falter. Rising oil production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm Bonnie fizzled over the weekend without damaging infrastructure also weighed on Oil prices, analysts said. Oil prices dropped the most in more than 3 weeks Tuesday as the U.S confidence index declined to the lowest level in 5 months. Traders mentioned that there was a sell-off in the crude market because of a fall in U.S. consumer confidence and the sentiment is still weak.
Technical News
EUR/USD Yesterday the pair pushed to its highest level in the past 3 months before falling backwards to finish almost unchanged, forming a spinning top candlestick formation. This may signal indecision on the part of traders and a lack of buyers in the current uptrend.
GBP/USD The pound was a big gainer in yesterday's trading as the cable breached and closed above the resistance level of 1.5520. The pair has been a strong performer as of recent, recording gains over the past 5 trading sessions. However, technical resistance is forming on the daily chart. The RSI (14) is dropping below the overbought zone while the Slow Stochastic oscillator is forming a bearish cross, indicating the next move may be to the downside. Traders may want to tighten their stops on any long positions.
USD/JPY The yen suffered during yesterday's trading, rising as high as 87.96 while closing above the 20-day simple moving average and the downward sloping trend line that began on June 14th. However, traders may be able to fade the trend as a bearish cross has formed on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic oscillator, indicating that the pair's next move may be lower. Traders can target the resistance level of 87.40 with an extended target at the year to date low of 86.25.
USD/CHF The pair may see a continuation of its recent downtrend in today's trading as the RSI for the pair floats in the overbought territory on the 2 hour and 8 hour charts with most other indicators floating in neutral territory. Traders may be advised to go short for the day.
The Wild Card GBP/NZD The pair may see some downward correction today as the RSI for the pair is floating in the overbought territory on the hourly and 2 hour charts while a bearish cross is evident on the 2 hour and 4 hour charts Slow Stochastic, indicating an imminent downward movement. Furthermore, a breach of the upper Bollinger Band is evident on the 2 hour chart. Forex traders may be advised to go short for the day.
EUR-USD Resistances lie around 1.3021 and 1.3044. It should test lower towards 1.2950 zone. A clear break of 1.2990 would be bearish.
USD-CHF Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.0643 or 1.0670 if support around 1.0576 hold. After which a pullback to 1.0576 - 1.0544 zone is possible.
GBP-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.5633 or 1.5648 if support around 1.5546 hold. After which a pullback to 1.5546 - 1.5518 zone is possible.
USD-JPY Current rise seems to be over near 87.94 or 88.31 for a retracement towards 87.57 - 87.37 area.
USD-CAD It looks set for gains to 1.0412. Supports at 1.0305 and 1.0277. A break of 1.0199 will damage this bullish structure.
NZD-USD There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 0.7364 or even 0.7381. Supports at 0.7323 and 0.7299 zone.
AUD-USD There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 0.9046 or even 0.9062. Supports at 0.9012 and 0.8993 zone.
EUR-JPY Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 114.81 or 114.85 if support around 113.82 hold. After which a pullback to 113.82 - 113.51 zone is possible.
EUR-CHF Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.3858 or 1.3846 if support around 1.3734 hold. After which a pullback to 1.3734 - 1.3703 zone is possible.
EUR-GBP Prefer a fall to 0.8334 or 0.8306. Then a correction to 0.8375 is anticipated. A clear break of 0.8279 is again bearish.
EUR-CAD It should trade higher to 1.3511 while 1.3428 or 1.3400 offers support. Stop loss below 1.3371 zone.
EUR-NZD Market should hold major support at 1.7636 before rising towards 1.7779 or even 1.7834 limit.
EUR-AUD It looks set for gains to 1.4449. Supports at 1.4372 and 1.4348. A break of 1.4295 will damage this bullish structure.
GBP-CHF Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6631 or 1.6645 if support around 1.6439 hold. After which a pullback to 1.6439 - 1.6386 zone is possible.
GBP-JPY Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 137.84 or 138.04 if support around 136.25 hold. After which a pullback to 136.25 - 135.76 zone is possible.
GBP-CAD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6163 or 1.6235 if support around 1.6080 hold. After which a pullback to 1.6080 - 1.6035 zone is possible.
GBP-AUD It should trade higher to 1.7351 while 1.7185 or 1.7149 offers support. Stop loss below 1.7018 zone.
CAD-JPY While below 85.15 - 85.50 it is more likely to fall further towards 84.50 or 84.20. Premature rise above 85.50 could see it rising above 86.11 zone.
NZD-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 64.94 - 64.89 area. A correction down to below 63.82 is expected. A rise above 65.32 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 79.57 - 79.76 area. A correction down to below 78.55 is expected. A rise above 80.21 will abort the expected correction.
XAG-USD Market should not go lower than 17.63 - 17.42. After this move down it should go up to 17.94 - 18.06 area.
XAU-USD Market should not go lower than 1159.95 - 1150.87. After this move down it should go up to 1174.47 - 1179.92 area.
The parity continues its bullish movement. The breakout of 0.73 gave us a new buy signal. The next resistance is at 0.7350. The breakout of this level will give another buy signal. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as the bullish slant is support. If the slant is broken, only the breakout of 0.7243 will allow us to trade short positions.
EUR-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.3008 or 1.3041 if support around 1.2959 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2959 - 1.2936 zone is possible.
USD-CHF It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.0540 - 1.0595 from 1.0473 or 1.0446. After which a downside move is expected.
GBP-USD One move lower to 1.5427 or 1.5364 is anticipated while below 1.5505 - 1.5536 area. Stop loss above 1.5583 zone.
USD-JPY Current move should be supported in 86.85 - 86.57 zone for a rise to 88.03. A break below 86.25 opens the way down.
USD-CAD Market should not go lower than 1.0313 - 1.0288. After this move down it should go up to 1.0355 - 1.0372 area.
NZD-USD Currently uptrend should end around 0.7376 - 0.7377 area. A correction down to below 0.7277 is expected. A rise above 0.7416 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD Currently uptrend should end around 0.9038 - 0.9065 area. A correction down to below 0.8958 is expected. A rise above 0.9103 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-JPY While below 113.51 it is more likely to fall further towards 112.86 or 112.56 level.
EUR-CHF Currently uptrend should end around 1.3685 - 1.3656 area. A correction down to below 1.3570 is expected. A rise above 1.3687 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-GBP It should test 0.8444 area after which a sell off down to 0.8343 or extended to 0.8297 area is expected.
EUR-CAD It should trade lower to 1.3359. Resistances are at 1.3455 and 1.3494. A break of 1.3552 is bullish, confirmed by a close above 1.3473.
EUR-NZD One more dip to 1.7683 or 1.7646 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.7749 - 1.7779. After which it can resume its downtrend.
EUR-AUD Support at 1.4382 or 1.4358 should hold. Then a correction to above 1.4491 is anticipated. A clear break of 1.4320 is again bearish.
GBP-CHF A corrective rise should ideally test 1.6330 or even higher than 1.6417. Supports are at 1.6195. Stop loss below 1.6099 zone.
GBP-JPY Should fall around 134.14 while below 134.58 - 135.09 zone. Then a recovery up to above 135.09 is expected.
GBP-CAD Should test support at 1.5933 while below 1.5991. If support at 1.5933 holds it can rise up to 1.6061, if not it should fall to below 1.5875 zone.
GBP-AUD There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.7236 or even 1.7268. Supports at 1.7151 and 1.7098 zone.
CAD-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 84.69 - 85.22 from 83.97 or 83.71. After which a downside move is expected.
NZD-JPY A correction down to 63.31 or lower is now expected from 63.90 or 64.12. A break above 64.49 is needed to turn bullish.
AUD-JPY Current upmove should end around 78.62 - 78.82 area. A correction down to 77.90 or even 77.38 is expected. A rise above 79.23 will abort the expected correction.
XAG-USD It should trade higher to 18.30 while 18.08 or 18.02 offers support. Stop loss below 17.87 zone.
XAU-USD Market should not go lower than 1181.82 - 1177.47. After this move down it should go up to 1189.27 - 1192.37 area.
The parity continues its bullish movement by taking support on its bullish slant. Currently, the parity is testing a breakout of the resistance at 0.73. If this level is broken, a new buy signal will be given. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as the slant is support. Only the breakout of 0.7243 will allow us to trade short positions.
EUR-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.2967 or 1.2989 if support around 1.2892 hold. After which a pullback to 1.2892 - 1.2855 zone is possible.
USD-CHF It should trade higher to 1.0597 while 1.0502 or 1.0472 offers support. Stop loss below 1.0441 zone.
GBP-USD Current rise seems to be over near 1.5436 or 1.5497 for a retracement towards 1.5374 - 1.5337 area.
USD-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 87.43 - 87.67 area. A correction down to 87.05 - 86.90 is expected. A rise above 87.97 will abort the expected correction.
USD-CAD Market should not go lower than 1.0353 - 1.0325. After this move down it should go up to 1.0399 - 1.0416 area.
NZD-USD One move lower to 0.7236 or 0.7200 is anticipated while below 0.7281 - 0.7298 area. Stop loss above 0.7326 zone.
AUD-USD Current rise should end around 0.8995. Objectives of this downmove are 0.8922 or 0.8874. A rise above 0.9019 is again bullish.
EUR-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 113.48 - 113.36 area. A correction down to below 111.96 is expected. A rise above 113.89 will abort the expected correction.
EUR-CHF Current rise seems to be over near 1.3608 or 1.3671 for a retracement towards 1.3544 - 1.3512 area.
EUR-GBP It is likely to fall towards 0.8346 - 0.8310 as its corrective rally could falter in 0.8414 - 0.8446 area. Stop above 0.8519 zone.
EUR-CAD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.3488 - 1.3595 from 1.3345 or 1.3291. After which a downside move is expected.
EUR-NZD Market should hold major support at 1.7612 before rising towards 1.7879 or even 1.7996 limit.
EUR-AUD One more dip to 1.4366 - 1.4320 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.4451 - 1.4490. After which it can resume his downtrend.
GBP-CHF Current rise seems to be over near 1.6261 or 1.6379 for a retracement towards 1.6142 - 1.6077 area.
GBP-JPY Current rise seems to be over near 134.88 or 135.69 for a retracement towards 134.07 - 133.59 area.
GBP-CAD Strength can extend to 1.6047 or even 1.6124 as declines are expected to find support at 1.5971 or 1.5898. Stop Loss below 1.5826 zone.
GBP-AUD Current upmove should continue up to 1.7426. Supports at 1.7186 and 1.7128. Stop Loss below 1.7070 limit.
CAD-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 84.76 - 84.69 area. A correction down to below 83.70 is expected. A rise above 85.05 will abort the expected correction.
NZD-JPY While below 63.64 - 63.93 it is more likely to fall further towards 63.14 or 62.93. Premature rise above 63.93 could see it rising above 64.34 zone.
AUD-JPY Currently uptrend should end around 79.01 - 78.76 area. A correction down to below 77.61 is expected. A rise above 79.14 will abort the expected correction.
XAG-USD Should test support at 18.02 while below 18.10. If support at 18.02 holds it can rise up to 18.23, if not it should fall to below 17.93 zone.
XAU-USD It is a triangle configuration. Market should break either side. Acceleration should occur above 1204.05 or under 1183.43 limits.
EUR-USD While below 1.2971 - 1.3051 it is more likely to fall further towards 1.2756 or 1.2596.
USD-CHF Market should hold major support at 1.0419 before rising towards 1.0601 or even 1.0667 limit.
GBP-USD Current rise seems to be over near 1.5436 or 1.5540 for a retracement towards 1.5332 - 1.5273 area.
USD-JPY It should test 88.18 area after which a sell off down to 86.61 or extended to 85.86 area is expected.
USD-CAD While above 1.0353 - 1.0276 zone a corrective dip could test 1.0431 or 1.0515.
NZD-USD It should trade higher to 0.7364 while 0.7150 or 0.7104 offers support. Stop loss below 0.6936 zone.
AUD-USD It should try higher up to 0.8970 - 0.9083. Entry point 0.8858 or 0.8802. After this rise, a correction is expected.
EUR-JPY It should be subject to more sell off towards 110.79 or 108.73. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 115.14 area. A break of 115.41 is bullish.
EUR-CHF It should try higher up to 1.3642 - 1.3741. Entry point 1.3542 or 1.3475. After this rise, a correction is expected.
EUR-GBP It looks more likely that it would rise to 0.8498 - 0.8622 from 0.8346 or 0.8284. After which a downside move is expected.
EUR-CAD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.3627 - 1.3872 from 1.3324 or 1.3202. After which a downside move is expected.
EUR-NZD While above 1.7690 - 1.7440 zone a corrective dip could test 1.7941 or 1.8263.
EUR-AUD While above 1.4366 - 1.4164 zone a corrective dip could test 1.4568 or 1.4804.
GBP-CHF It should trade higher to 1.6396 while 1.6125 or 1.6051 offers support. Stop loss below 1.5977 zone.
GBP-JPY It should be subject to more sell off towards 132.05 or 129.36. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 138.36 area. A break of 137.71 is bullish.
GBP-CAD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.6180 - 1.6381 from 1.5888 or 1.5787. After which a downside move is expected.
GBP-AUD While below 1.7456 - 1.7590 it might drop to 1.6927 or 1.6659.
CAD-JPY It should test 86.79 area after which a sell off down to 82.58 or extended to 80.84 area is expected.
NZD-JPY It should trade higher to 64.55 while 62.22 or 61.71 offers support. Stop loss below 59.89 zone.
AUD-JPY It should be subject to more sell off towards 75.91 or 73.45. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 82.02 area. A break of 80.85 is bullish.
XAG-USD It may attempt a test higher to 18.19 - 18.44 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 17.61 limit.
XAU-USD One more dip to 1181.75 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1202.62. After which it can resume its downtrend.
The parity continues its bullish movement and should shortly test the resistance at 0.73. The breakout of this level will give a new buy signal. A bullish slant seems to give support to the parity. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as it is the case. However, if the slant is broken, a sell signal will be given.
EUR-USD It should trade higher to 1.2968 while 1.2853 or 1.2815 offers support. Stop loss below 1.2778 zone.
USD-CHF One more dip to 1.0412 is likely followed by a grind higher to 1.0498. After which it can resume its downtrend.
GBP-USD It should trade higher to 1.5320 while 1.5205 or 1.5175 offers support. Stop loss below 1.5090 zone.
USD-JPY Market should hold major support at 86.16 before rising towards 87.32 or even 87.70 limit.
USD-CAD No comment!
NZD-USD Currently uptrend should end around 0.7260 - 0.7315 area. A correction down to below 0.7139 is expected. A rise above 0.7382 will abort the expected correction.
AUD-USD It should try higher up to 0.8943 - 0.9011. Entry point 0.8875 or 0.8836. After this rise, a correction is expected.
EUR-JPY Difficult to predict the next move. If first down it should hold 111.05 or 110.50. If first up it should face resistance in 112.41 - 113.21 zone to 110.50 zone.
EUR-CHF It should test 1.3533 area after which a sell off down to 1.3372 or extended to 1.3297 area is expected.
EUR-GBP It should trade higher to 0.8480 while 0.8435 or 0.8419 offers support. Stop loss below 0.8404 zone.
EUR-CAD There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.3360 - 1.3324 while 1.3395 - 1.3419 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.3419 or 1.3444 is expected.
EUR-NZD Market should not go lower than 1.7764 - 1.7689. After this move down it should go up to 1.7889 - 1.7939 area.
EUR-AUD There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.4423 - 1.4360 while 1.4485 - 1.4521 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.4521 or 1.4557 is expected.
GBP-CHF It should try higher up to 1.5937 - 1.5965. Entry point 1.5909 or 1.5884. After this rise, a correction is expected.
GBP-JPY It may attempt a test higher to 132.96 - 133.66 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to 131.25 limit.
GBP-CAD There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.5822 - 1.5775 while 1.5868 - 1.5894 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.5894 or 1.5920 is expected.
GBP-AUD There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.7067 - 1.6968 while 1.7167 - 1.7223 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.7223 or 1.7279 is expected.
CAD-JPY It should be subject to more sell off towards 82.69 or 81.56. Corrective upward swings should face resistance around 85.10 area. A break of 85.23 is bullish.
NZD-JPY Corrective dips should ideally halt near 62.20 or 61.82 for one more thrust upwards towards 63.17 - 63.77 area or 64.52 in extention. Fall below 60.63 puts it back on a downward path.
AUD-JPY Corrective dips should ideally halt near 76.62 or 76.17 for one more thrust upwards towards 77.81 - 78.56 area or 79.45 in extention. Fall below 74.68 puts it back on a downward path.
XAG-USD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 18.27 or 18.31 if support around 17.97 hold. After which a pullback to 17.97 - 17.86 zone is possible.
XAU-USD Currently uptrend should end around 1197.95 - 1203.52 area. A correction down to below 1183.82 is expected. A rise above 1212.08 will abort the expected correction.
