The Japanese yen rose today against the U.S. currency as the growing concern for the global recovery spurs the investors to seek safety, increasing the appeal of the Japanese currency.
The U.S. economy continues to show the sings of the weakness. While the banking sector in Europe looks pretty robust, the manufacturing sector gives the reason for the concern. According to the experts’ estimates, the manufacturing confidence in the Eurozone was minus five in July.
USD/JPY fell from 87.44 to about 87.17 today as of 8:58 GMT after reaching as low as 87.08.
Markets are trading in a lethargic manner as participants continue to nervously take on risk-correlated trades. The move toward risk is logical because without the massive sovereign crisis fear hovering over the market like the Sword of Damocles, one needs to consider the fundamentals - particularly monetary policy, as the core driver. Overall, the rate at which central banks are mopping up excess liquidity has been slower-than-expected with the BoE and Fed still discussing the potential for further QE.
In this era of ultra-low policy rates, risk taking will be encouraged. In the past few days, we’ve seen Eurozone sovereign spreads narrow considerably, the VIX index is trending lower along with decreased FX volatilities and global equity markets have demonstrated a resilience to bearish news. If corporate earnings come out strong, this could be the start of a summer rally, however we’re not so sure. Our view is that the fears surrounding sovereign risk may have subsided for the time being, but will most likely return this fall.
Even with the recent stint of positive news, foreboding signs are on the horizon. The Fed’s Beige book released yesterday reported that the US recovery remained on track but has begun to actively slow. The notion of a US slowdown was reinforced by recent US data, including yesterday’s durable goods figures.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised its policy rate 25 bps to 3.00% as we had predicted and the accompanying statement asserted that future growth prospects had deteriorated considerably. Traders rapidly paired down their interest rate expectations which in turn weighed on the NZD.
Governor King’s comment seemed to slam into the sterling market, which was curious because his remarks were really nothing new or original. He recommended caution over reading too much into the strong Q2 GDP figures and reaffirmed that inflation remained finely in check. Paul Fisher stated that the global outlook had weakened and David Miles resonated with the most dovish view of all – that inflation would taper off and the current ultra-loose policy was correct.
The combination of all these comments hit the GBP value like a sledge hammer. It wasn’t until Sentance’s hawkish comments that the “current policy setting was extreme” that some sanity was regained in the FX market.
We are convinced that the market is now underestimating the strength of the UK recovery and that the current downtrend in inflation will flat line and then begin to move higher. The BoE interest rate path should give GBP a boost in the mid-term.
Otherwise, there’s a frenzy of data to be released during the European session today and after that it’s onto corporate earnings. We will continue to use equity market activity as a compass for FX directions. Correlation remains particularly high between the EURUSD and S&P and should thus be traded accordingly.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 07:30 SEK Jun retail sales, +0.6% m/m EXP; prior +1.6% m/m, +2.7% y/y. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment rate, 7.6% sa EXP; prior 7.7%. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment, nsa and sa; prior 3.153 mln, 3.23 mln. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment - change, -10k sa EXP; prior -21.0k. 08:00 EUR ITA Jun wages, +2.6% y/y EXP; prior +0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y. 08:30 GBP Jun consumer credit, GBP300 mln EXP; prior GBP331 mln. 08:30 GBP Jun mortgage appl/loans, 49k/GBP1 bln EXP; prior 49.81k/GBP1.184 bln. 08:30 GBP Jun money supply; prior unch. 09:00 EUR Jul business climate index, 0.39 EXP; prior 0.37. 09:00 EUR Jul consumer sentiment index, -14.0 EXP; prior -17.0. 09:00 EUR Jul economic sentiment index, 99.1 EXP; prior 98.7. 09:00 EUR Jul industrial sentiment index, -5.0 EXP; prior -6.0. 09:00 EUR Jul services sentiment index; prior 4.0. 12:30 USD Initial jobless claims, thous (4wma) 24-Jul 23:01 GBP GfK consumer confidence survey, bal Jul
EurUsd We’ve had another day of tight range trading in EURUSD, and for the time being there is a ceiling of resistance at 1.3046 that is blocking the path higher. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days. Once we clear 1.3046, the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support just below at 1.2940 –should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then eye technical levels below at 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd There were a few hairy moments yesterday for GBPUSD as BoE’s King hit the newswires to downplay the significance of the latest GDP reading, but tellingly the temporary sell-off was met with eager buyers clambering to get in on this impressive GBPUSD recovery, and the pair has since pushed to fresh highs of 1.5655. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5385 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as decent support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5545, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (yesterday’s low). Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5950) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
UsdJpy USDJPY may have slumped in a rather ungainly fashion back below 87.50 in the past few sessions, but the pair is at the very least continued carve out successively higher highs and higher lows since the double bottom around 86.25 levels. The last rally (which topped out at 88.11) was thwarted by a pretty formidable confluence of resistance levels (8-week downtrend resistance, top of 1-week uptrend channel and 88.00 pivot), but we still believe the bulls can overcome these barriers on a subsequent re-test now they are more comfortably spaced out. The 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.90 while the top of the current uptrend channel has climbed to 88.25; however thereafter few levels are discernible ahead of our triangle target 88.85. Should the rally have the momentum to continue beyond there, look for sellers at 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). The most convincing support level to try getting in on the long trade appears to be the lower edge of the 1-week uptrend which is now seen at 87.10-15 (already had one test of that area this morning), then further supports anticipated at 86.82 (Tuesday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf Despite the bullish engulfing candlestick on Monday/Tuesday of this week AND the important break of the 1-month downtrend channel, the bulls have looked lacklustre in the past 24 hours and have sloppily allowed the 1-week uptrend to break down around 1.0560. This conclusively negates the bullish flag pattern we had proposed yesterday, and seems compelling argument to move to the sidelines for the time being on this one and wait for more favourable risk-reward trades to present themselves. Buyers should be able to catch the fall if it extends to 1.0450, and an extremely important support still remains at 1.0400 so we would look to resume buying down at those levels. Strong selling interest may once again cap rallies at 1.0640-47 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average), and given the propensity of July/August markets to be directionless and range bound, we would actually look to sell at those levels rather than look for a continuation higher. IF the bulls manage to pull their fingers out and effect that break higher, a powerful resistance level around 1.0700 is backed up but the top of the 1-week uptrend at 1.0710.
The recent upside failure at 1.3044 has seen a narrow consolidation, ahead of today’s renewed attempt higher. Break above the later is required to resume gains, with 1.3073/93 seen next, ahead of 1.3125 Fibonacci level. Immediate support stands at 1.2965/51 zone.
The latest strength retraced 50% of 1.7041/1.4230 descend at 1.5637 yesterday, with consolidation just below here followed. Fresh push higher is now underway, with clear break above 1.5637 to focus 1.5688, 18 Feb high, next. Below, 1.5544 offers initial support, while 1.5440 remains key support and possible break under here to weaken the structure and allow deeper corrective pullback.
The latest upleg off 86.82 higher low stalled at 88.10 yesterday, ahead of reversal. This has so far reached 87.09, retracing over 50% of the entire upleg off 86.25, increasing risk of lower top and possible fresh weakness towards 86.33/25, key support zone. Otherwise, regain of 88.10 would revive bulls and resume recovery.
Upside rejection at 1.0638, 200 days M.A on 27 July has triggered a reversal to 1.0515 so far. To maintain immediate bulls, higher low above 1.0480 is now required. Above 1.0638/45 will open 1.0675/95 barriers, with break here required to resume recovery. Loss of 1.0480/58, however, would attract key 1.0406/1.0393 support zone.
The parity found resistance on the lower band of its former bullish channel. The price made a pullback on the highest of July and is testing a rebound. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as the price is above 113.50. A return above 114 will comfirm the take up of the bullish movement. The breakout of 114.75 will give a new buy signal.
The parity made a correction and 136.50 has been broken. So, we are now neutral between 136.50 and 135.66. We will wait the breakout of one of these two bands to take position: - Long if 136.50 is broken - Short if 135.66 is broken
88 finaly acted as resistance and a correction occured, pushing back the price below 87.67. So, we are neutral on the parity between this level and 86.86. We will wait the breakout of one of these two bands to take position: - Long if 87.67 is broken - Short if 86.86 is broken
MORNING BRIEFING: Beige Book shows some districts slowing economy
What’s new: United States: Financial state of emergency in California United States: Beige book report shows some districts slowing economy Euro zone: Tougher lending rules for banks from ECB United Kingdom: No tacit agreement to keep low rate China: IMF board split on China’s exchange rate debate Japan: BOJ’s Kamezaki says won’t base policy on forex New Zealand: RBNZ raises interest rates by 25bps to 3.00%
Today:
Rates in Asia and Indices: EURUSD: 1.3045 - 1.2978. USDCHF: 1.0581 - 1.0517. GBPUSD: 1.5631- 1.5584. EURJPY: 113.97 – 113.18. USDJPY: 87.52 – 87.10. DowJones: 10'497.88 -0.38% NASDAQ: 2'264.56 -1.04% S & P 500: 1'106.13 -0.69% Nikkei: 9'696.02 -0.59% Shanghai: 2'648.60 +0.57% Gold: $ 1'167.20 Crude Oil: $ 77.22
Comments: In an interview, British finance minister George Osborne declared ‘There is no tacit agreement with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King on keeping interets rates low. He is absolutely independent, as is his Monetary Policy Committee.'
New Zealand’s Central bank lifted interest rates by 25bps to 3.0%, but scaled back its plans for further move. The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled the pace of further interest rate hikes would be less than earlier thought. The kiwi fell to a low near $0.7202, from about $0.7287 before the announcement.
The Beige Book, released yesterday at 2000 CET, reports on conditions in all 12 districts that are part of the Federal Reserve system. The report, based on information before July 19, said activity "continued to increase, on balance" though Cleveland and Kansas City said business held steady. "Among those districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said the pace of economic activity had slowed recently," the Fed said.
The Euro is still hovering near an 11-week high against the US Dollar reached earlier this week. EURUSD is up to 1.3045 today, just shy of the recent high reached 27th of July. Against the Yen, the single currency dipped on high selling by Japanese exporters. Traders are expecting more offers to emerge if the Euro rises to above 115 Yen.
EUR-USD It looks more likely that it would rise to 1.3036 - 1.3076 from 1.2981 or 1.2960. After which a downside move is expected.
USD-CHF There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.0595 or even 1.0614. Supports at 1.0552 and 1.0528 zone.
GBP-USD While below 1.5619 - 1.5643 it is more likely to fall further towards 1.5573 or 1.5551. Premature rise above 1.5643 could see it rising above 1.5687 zone.
USD-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 87.79 or even 87.96. Supports at 87.37 and 87.12 zone.
USD-CAD It should trade higher to 1.0420 while 1.0360 or 1.0344 offers support. Stop loss below 1.0328 zone.
NZD-USD Support at 0.7264 or 0.7239 should hold the downside for a correction to above 0.7321 zone.
AUD-USD Market should pop up towards 0.8979 or 0.9002 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 0.8920 - 0.8884 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
EUR-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 114.53 - 115.39 from 113.45 or 113.02. After which a downside move is expected.
EUR-CHF Preferred view is for a fall to 1.3724 - 1.3692 while 1.3775 - 1.3794 area resists. A clear break of 1.3857 would be bullish.
EUR-GBP Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.8308 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.8360. Fall below 0.8285 would cancel this scenario.
EUR-CAD It should try higher up to 1.3504 - 1.3543. Entry point 1.3466 or 1.3444. After this rise, a correction is expected.
EUR-NZD Current upmove should be ended around 1.7900 - 1.7960. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.7795 - 1.7751 zone.
EUR-AUD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.4632 or 1.4640 if support around 1.4510 hold. After which a pullback to 1.4510 - 1.4464 zone is possible.
GBP-CHF A corrective rise should ideally test 1.6544 or even higher than 1.6605. Supports are at 1.6425. Stop loss below 1.6397 zone.
GBP-JPY There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 136.99 or even 137.35. Supports at 136.17 and 135.71 zone.
GBP-CAD Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6221 or 1.6261 if support around 1.6149 hold. After which a pullback to 1.6149 - 1.6120 zone is possible.
GBP-AUD Current rise should end around 1.7576. Objectives of this downmove are 1.7301 or 1.7138. A rise above 1.7688 is again bullish.
CAD-JPY It looks more likely that it would rise to 85.13 - 86.07 from 84.10 or 83.63. After which a downside move is expected.
NZD-JPY There is bearish potential for a fall to 63.18 while 63.86 - 64.07 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 64.07 or 64.28 is expected.
AUD-JPY No comment!
XAG-USD It may meet resistance in 17.50 - 17.52 zone for a drift down to 17.31 zone, after which bounce to 17.71 is anticipated.
XAU-USD It should try higher up to 1164.96 - 1167.60. Entry point 1162.32 or 1160.31. After this rise, a correction is expected.
Plenty of important macro data from the U.S. was published yesterday. Investors were disappointed by the figures and responded mainly by moving away from riskier assets. At first U.S. Durable Goods came negative at -1%, at 12:30GMT later at 18:00GMT Beige book revealed a gloomy outlook for U.S. economy. Although company earnings are still high, yesterday fears about recovery came back to dominate the markets.
Economic News
USD - Traders Shift from EU Debts Concern to U.S. Economic Outlook U.S. macro data came far less than expected. Investors responded by moving away from riskier assets back to buying the Yen and U.S. Dollar. The EUR/USD was slightly down after U.S Durable Goods was published, The USD/JPY traded lower, currently trading at $87.22 as investors feel safer holding the Yen over the USD. The British Pound continued to rally against the U.S. Dollar, despite the move to safer assets.
U.S. demand for Durable Goods, which is usually a sign for economic strength, came negative at -1.0%. Forecasts which already expected a form of decline from last month were more moderate than the actual figure. Traders were surprised by the final figure and reacted by sending markets lower. Later the Beige Book was released by the Fed during mid U.S. day trading. It provided a mixed economic picture but eventually supported the markets from declining further. The report said that the U.S. economy was growing but there were also signs of a slowdown in some regions over the past two months.
Looking ahead to today, traders should follow the release of the Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT. A worse than expected result might intensify the current trend and strengthen the greenback further.
EUR - EUR's Recent Rally Losing Steam EUR's rally against its major counterparts stumbled yesterday as new economic data raised fears about the strength of global economic recovery, with the common currency ending lower against its major counterparts.
EUR/USD ended slightly lower yesterday, reaching a low of 1.2968; however, it managed to recover some of its loses to currently trade at 1.3010. The pair seemed to trade without a clear trend and moved mostly sideways. The EUR/JPY, however sent more clear signs of a correction building up. The pair's five days rally ended yesterday after it breached an 11 week high. Signals show that pair should further decline in coming days.
Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow the British HPI data at 6:00 GMT as well as the German Employment change at 7:55 GMT. Positive data might bring back some market optimism, pushing the Pound and EUR higher against their counterparts.
JPY - Strengthens on Safe Heaven appeal The JPY strengthened against the U.S. Dollar yesterday as investors expressed their concerns about the U.S. economy by selling the U.S. Dollar and buying the Japanese Yen. The Yen traded higher against most of its major counterparts; however, a strong currency may ultimately weigh on the Japanese economy as it is heavily dependent on exports.
A strong Yen would have bad influence on profits of Japanese companies. Consequently the Japanese government might be forced to weaken their local currency. So far no comments were published regarding Government intervention. As long as the Japanese Bank avoids market intervention the Yen is expected to keep its strengthening momentum.
Looking ahead to today traders should pay attention to the $86.88 support line, crossing down might take the USD/JPY pair even lower. Some analysts estimate that that the Yen could even reach as high as $85 in the coming months.
Crude Oil - High U.S. Inventories Send Crude Oil Price Lower Crude Oil prices ended lower yesterday after U.S Oil Inventories rose by 7.3M barrels. Lately this figure made little impact over Crude Oil prices but yesterday it came quite high compared with expectations of a 1.4M drop.
Demand for durables goods which also came surprisingly lower added to worries that demand for Oil would decrease in the near future as manufacturing declines. Crude Oil price might decline further in the short term if economic figures continue to deteriorate. Investors are worried about a possible double dip, meaning a renewed recession.
Gold price rebounded slightly during yesterday trading session. During the day it reached as low as $1156.25, but thereafter recovered and is currently trading at $1165 Gold price dropped after inflation worries began to fade and analysts begin to worry about another recession or economic slow down.
Technical News
EUR/USD The pair was relatively unchanged yesterday and as such has formed a 2nd consecutive doji candlestick which reflects the bulls and bears inability to move the price significantly. The RSI (14) has crossed below the overbought line, triggering a sell signal. But traders may want to be patient and wait for the RSI line to break its trend line before going short. A rising trend line can be drawn from the low of the RSI line that begins on June 4th.
GBP/USD The pound was stronger yesterday and has risen versus the dollar for the past 6 consecutive bars. This has pushed most oscillators into oversold territory as the Slow Stochastic is showing a bearish cross and the RSI (14) is floating in the oversold territory. However, before going short, traders may want to wait for a breach of a short term trend line that can begins at the bar on June 22nd.
USD/JPY A bearish flag pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart. The base of the flag pole begins at the high on June 14th and runs to the low for the pair at 86.25. The flag pattern is sloping upward with a previous downward trend. Therefore, a breakout may be expected to the downside in the direction of the long term trend. Traders may want to wait for a confirmation of the breakout at a price of 86.80 and enter short.
USD/CHF For the past 15 days the pair has traded in a defined range between the prices of 1.0650 and 1.0400. In this trading range a double bottom reversal pattern may be forming. A confirmation of the reversal pattern will be a close above the 1.0650 resistance line.
The Wild Card Gold The drop in the price of gold shows a potential reversal in the trend. The price has closed below the long term upward sloping trend line for the past two days, confirming a significant breach of the trend line and a breach below the support level of $1169. However, yesterday's trading closed and formed a hanging man candlestick. This may signal an upturn in the price. CFD traders may find a good opportunity to go long on a breach above the $1169 resistance level.
The dollar declined against the yen in Asia Thursday on speculation that U.S. Treasury yields will fall further due to concerns over a slowdown in the world's biggest economy.
Strong demand at a U.S. five-year sovereign note auction overnight suggested that recent weak economic reports from the U.S. have made investors pessimistic about the country's growth outlook.
The U.S. currency was weaker also because of speculation that foreign investors will buy new shares offered by Japanese companies, a process which involves yen-buying.
On Wednesday, market sentiment was dampened after data showing demand for U.S. durable goods slid for a second straight month in June. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's latest beige-book report pointed to signs that the economic recovery may be running out of steam, adding to the market's disappointment.
The dollar was at JPY87.19 as of 0450 GMT, lower than JPY87.44 in New York Wednesday.
The euro was higher at USD1.3013 at 0450 GMT from USD1.2988 overnight while it was lower against the yen at JPY113.47 from JPY113.54.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.970 from 82.132.
The British pound remained at a 5-month peak against the dollar despite dovish comments from the Bank of England, which did little to diminish optimism about the UK economic outlook after a run of encouraging data.
Flat Asian stock markets left the Australian dollar floundering Thursday, rising only slightly through the trading day, with crucial Chinese manufacturing data Sunday the next major test of market confidence. General U.S. dollar weakness and cross-related demand helped to put some support under the Aussie dollar.
Market expectation
Currency dealers believe Treasury yields will keep falling for the time being, meaning investors will see less returns from their dollar-denominated assets. That view helped prompt dollar selling, said analysts.
Investors will pay attention to Thursday's seven-year Treasury bond tender to see whether yields keep falling.
The euro won't be able to rise far above USD1.3, dealers said, because big U.S. hedge funds have resumed selling the euro based on their medium-term European economic forecasts.
The greenback may fall to as low as JPY86.00 in this global day, some dealers said. But the pace of any decline below JPY86.50 would be slow due to dollar-buying orders placed by Japanese importers, said analysts.
European stock markets are expected to have an uneven open Thursday, as investors weigh up the competing influences of disappointing U.S. economic data but upbeat second quarter corporate earnings.
The U.S. dollar fell today against the Japanese yen after the report today showed that the orders for the U.S. durable goods fell unexpectedly in June, fueling the concern for the economic recovery and spurring the investors to turn to the safety of Japan’s currency. The EUR/USD moves up and down today after it closed yesterday near its opening level.
Durable goods orders declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 1.0 percent in June after dropping 0.8 percent in May. The impact of this report was even more significant as the market participants anticipated the growth, not another month of decline. The unfavorable economic data outweighed the better than expected corporate earning, causing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drop by 0.5 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.4 percent.
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, said on July 21st that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain”. The data from the U.S. definitely added to the risk aversion sentiment on the markets, increasing the appeal of the yen.
USD/JPY traded near 87.67 as of 16:27 GMT today after opening at 87.90. EUR/USD near 1.2995 close to the opening level of 1.2996.
The dollar was flat to lower Wednesday, slightly extending a loss versus the Japanese yen while seeing little movement versus other currencies after U.S. durable-goods orders showed an unexpected June drop.
The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was slightly lower at 82.123 versus 82.200 in North American trade late Tuesday.
The euro, which failed to maintain an earlier push above the USD1.30 level, slipped to USD1.2980, down slightly from USD1.2989 in North American trading late Tuesday.
Against Japan's yen, the euro erased an early gain to stand at JPY113.82, off slightly from JPY114.05 late Tuesday.
The dollar, meanwhile, slightly extended a loss versus the yen to trade at JPY87.56, down from JPY87.82 late Tuesday. The yen tends to be among the largest beneficiaries of declines in risk appetite.
The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods fell 1% in June, defying expectations for a 1% rise.
The British pound traded at USD1.5601, up 0.1%. The currency showed little reaction to testimony by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and other central bankers, including Andrew Sentence, before a parliamentary committee.
Market expectation
Worry over the U.S. economy taking a downturn is weighing on the dollar, analysts said. Investors will pour over the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, to be released at 2 p.m. EDT, for another assessment of the U.S. recovery from the perspective of the regional Fed banks.
Economists widely expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points during late Wednesday New York hours to 3.00%. But a slightly more cautious statement is expected as the economic recovery remains fairly tepid.
Until key data from major economies grow gloomier the franc is likely to remain on its weaker path. Should the data published in the U.S. continue to disappoint, sentiment could deteriorate once again, benefiting the franc. While that is not the case, the franc is likely to remain under pressure, said analysts.
Risk correlated trades had a strong showing yesterday as banking stocks rallied and concerns over the inadequacies of the Stress Test dissipated. The USD lost ground to both the GBP and EUR while longs in JPY and CHF were equally cut. Risky trades continued to benefit throughout the trading day in spite of US Consumer confidence data coming in negative. We especially like the appreciation we saw in sterling. We suspect there has been a fundamental shift in GBP prospects due to the sturdy GDP reading last Friday and we anticipate further upside to sterling in the near-to-mid term.
Asian equity markets are having a roaring day and the positive effects are spilling over into European indexes. We are seeing other encouraging signs as VIX dropped below its 200-day moving average and Gold continues to come under heavy selling pressure. There has been a noticeable lack of 1st tier economic data and we are cautious in accumulating too much risk just yet. These are the dog days of the trading summer – as such, low liquidly and inconsistent participants will continue to be as important as real data.
During the Asian session, the big news was the disappointing Australian Q2 CPI reading which came in well below markets expectations. The market was quick to shift rate hike expectations from August to later in the fall (ACM expects a November hike). The AUDUSD dropped like a rock to .8923 from .9020 in response to the release. With the inflation rate now within the RBA’s 2-3% target, markets now pricing in a late fall hike. The large AUD interest rate differential will further erode, which in turn will lend added support to currencies like CAD and NOK. Look for CAD & NOK to gain in the near term.
We are still highly constructive on the global economy and suspect commodities prices to trend higher which should give AUD a boost against the USD. With all the excitement around AUD, the CPI watchers will now be turning their gaze toward New Zealand.
In NZ, July business confidence and activity outlook surveys showed a significant deterioration from the June results. Analysts are in unanimous agreement that the RBNZ will raise the OCR 25 bps to 3.00% at its policy meeting tonight. Market and media interest will be focused on the accompanying statement released with the rate hike. Although recent NZ CPI readings have come in lower-than-expected, the markets are still pricing in roughly 75 bps worth of hikes between now and the year’s end.
We believe that the RBNZ statement will sound slightly more dovish, signaling a minor shift in interest rate trajectory as policy makers prepare for a global economic slowdown later this year. The sudden adjustment in rate path should translate into short-term NZD weakness, especially against the AUD.
As for today, US Durable Goods data is due to be released as investors continue to look for directional signals for the US recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book will likely reflect recent data softness.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 00:00 EUR GER Jul HICP - prelim, +0.2% m/m, +1.1% y/y exp; prior unch, +0.8%. 07:00 EUR ESP Jun retail sales; prior -1.9% y/y. 08:45 GBP BoE Gov King, other MPC member testimony before Parliament. 10:00 GBP Jun Land Registry house prices. 12:30 USD Jun durable goods orders, +2.9% m/m exp; prior -0.6%. 12:30 USD Jun - ex-transport, +1.0% m/m exp; prior +1.6%. 18:00 USD Fed Beige Book release. 18:30 USD Senate vote on Fed nominees 21:00 NZD RBNZ interest rate announcement, % 3.00% exp, 2.75% prior
EurUsd The symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart is still very much in play, and thus far we have seen a couple of nudges through the 20 Jul high at 1.3028. We are long from the original break above 1.2950 (there was even the re-test of that level yesterday which we suggested as a chance to add to longs) and expect the triangle to yield a target in the region of 1.3290. At present the bulls are steadying themselves above 1.3000 so further progress has been somewhat laboured; the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support at 1.2905 –but should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then expect technical levels below at 1.2793 (Friday’s low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd GBPUSD continues to march unwaveringly higher, making easy work of the tangle of technical resistance levels between 1.5525-75 (15 April high, 200-day moving average and 23 Feb high) and going on to touch 1.5627 this morning. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5350 (coinciding with a recent pivot level) to get long, and set a stop through 1.5300. Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, then only uptrend resistance (currently at 1.5905) before the psychological significant 1.6000. Supports now seen below at 1.5525, 1.5450 and 1.5350.
UsdJpy Finally, a breakout from the 86.25 –87.75 range; and as expected, this has occurred on the topside –in the process activating a double bottom pattern we proposed earlier in the week. Given the depth of the two troughs we should therefore anticipate a target around 88.85, and after this morning’s break above the significant 88.00 pivot level, that now seems an extremely attainable goal. Sellers may still hinder progress up through the remaining trendline resistance around 88.45 but then the next discernable levels are all beyond our target; 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). Adding conviction to our view is the bullish engulfing candlestick carved out on the daily chart which suggests the bears have become overwhelmed and further upside is likely. Dips back towards the 87.75 breakout level will likely meet good bids, with the supports below there at 86.82 (yesterday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf The bulls finally got a better grip on USDCHF yesterday, and not only managed to take out the stubborn 1.0565 resistance level, but then to print a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. We now see a fresh bullish flag pattern possible on the hourly chart which would suggest that on a break above 1.0620 we should go long and aim for a target around 1.0770. Standing in our way before that would be yesterday’s high 1.0640 (roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 1.0644), the top of the 1-week uptrend channel at 1.0685, then the major 1.0700 level. Bidders are very likely to lurk around 1.0565 where the old resistance level once stood, then 1.0450and 1.0400.
Near-term structure remains positive, with bull flag completed on Monday projecting further strength. Clearance of yesterday’s high at 1.3044 will extend gains toward 1.3125, 38.2% retracement of 1.5144/1.1875 decline. Immediate support now stands at 1.2965/51 zone.
Continues to trend higher, with lift above 1.5576, previous high, now approaching 1.5635, 50% retracement of 1.7041/1.4230 decline. Break of which will expose 1.5688, 18 Feb high, next. Key support at 1.5440 is expected to hold dips to keep immediate bulls in play.
Correction off 87.96, yesterday’s high, has found support at 87.64, ahead of fresh strength. The latest break above 88.03, 61.8% retracement of 89.14/86.25 downleg, as well as break above 5-wwek falling trendline, now opens way towards 88.50/80 next. Only reversal under 87.25 would delay.
Fresh strength off 1.0458 higher low, has broken above the recent 1.0393/1.0565 range, extending gains above 1.0600, to reach 1.0638 so far. Break here is required to resume bulls and focus 1.0675/95 area next. 1.0458 remains key support.
The parity broke the resistance at 113, offering a buy signal. All indicators are bullish. The price is currently testing a breakout of the next resistance at 114. If validated, another buy signal will be given. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 133.50 is support.
The pullback on 134.40 has been validated and then, the breakout of 135.65 gave us a new buy signal. Currently, the parity is testing the next resistance at 137.50. The breakout of this level will give another buy signal. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 136.50 is support. A pullback on 135.65 is possible as far as 137.50 is not broken. If 136.50 is broken, we will stay neutral.
The U.S. currency strengthened today against the euro and the Japanese yen as the macroeconomic indicators suggested that the U.S. economy is recovering. The dollar dropped versus the Great Britain pound.
The report about the new home sales yesterday showed the unexpected surge to 330,000 in June from 267,000 in May. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index rose to 146.64 in April from 147.33 in May. Not all reports were favorable, though. The manufacturing index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond suggested that the manufacturing growth is slowing. The consumer confidence dropped to 50.4 in July from 54.3 in June.
The U.S. economy shows signs of recovery, but it’s a long way to the certainty about its strength. Will the recovery gain momentum. The reports suggest that the consumers and the manufacturers don’t believe in this.
EUR/USD dropped to 1.2981 from 1.2994 as of 15:54 GMT today after it jumped as high as 1.3045. GBP/USD rose to 1.5536 from 1.5489 after it reached 1.5576, the highest level since February 23d. USD/JPY currency pair went up to 87.81 from the opening level of 86.87.
The Japanese yen declined today against the U.S. dollar and the euro as the signs of the economic recovery in the U.S. prompted the investors to leave the safe currencies in favor of the higher-yielding ones.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1 percent yesterday after FedEx Corp., the second-largest package-shipping company in the U.S., raised its earnings forecast for the quarter and for the year. The forecasts also suggest about improving consumer confidence in Germany and increasing number of the durable goods orders in the U.S.
USD/JPY went up from 87.37 to 87.36 today as of 9:19 GMT. EUR/JPY traded at 113.43 after it jumped as high as 113.70.
The euro edged lower against the yen as the single currency's overnight gains to a more than two-month high encouraged Japanese exporters to sell the unit to lock in profits. Further declines in the risk-sensitive euro are likely to be short-lived, as rising Asian shares are supporting sentiment toward the currency.
As of 0450 GMT, the European single unit stood at JPY114.05 compared with its New York overnight levels of JPY114.37 and JPY114.42, its highest since May 18.
Cross-yen sales, which involve selling the dollar for the yen in the process, contributed to the dollar's fall. The U.S. unit was at JPY87.73 as of 0450 GMT, from JPY87.97 overnight.
The euro changed hands at USD1.3000 compared with USD1.3006 in New York late Tuesday. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 82.142 from 82.138.
The U.K. pound, now little changed, earlier bucked the trend of losses in higher-yielding currencies, hanging onto its strong gain on the dollar and trading near its highest level since February after U.K. retail sales smashed through economists' expectations with their best reading in three years.
The Australian dollar was lower late Wednesday after weaker-than-expected second quarter inflation data buried the idea that interest rates might be raised next week. Late Wednesday, financial markets were pricing virtually no chance of a rate hike in August, down from 30% ahead of the inflation report.
Market expectation
The European single currency may reverse course later in the global day if European and U.S. equities track firm Asian stock performances, prompting investors to sell the safe-haven yen, traders said.
EURJPY, EURUSD up as various investors including non-Japan hedge funds, Japan life insurance firms buy at lower levels, says traders. Players holding ample cash are gradually becoming focused on risk-tolerance with Nikkei +2.7% after market participants reduced risk exposure in past weeks to await release of Europe bank stress test results. Says EURJPY may rise to JPY115.00 vs last JPY114.26 (near JPY114.43, highest since May 18); EURUSD may gain to USD1.3040 vs USD1.3010. Adds if Friday's 2Q U.S. GDP data improve (+2.5% expected vs +2.7% in previous quarter), increasing Treasury yields, players may buy USD, risk-sensitive EUR further vs JPY, pushing EURJPY to JPY115.00 into weekend, JPY117.00 next week.
Market participants will pay attention to the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and the U.S.'s advance report on durable goods for June, both slated for release later in the day.
European stock markets are expected to open in an uncertain manner Wednesday, with U.S. economic weakness adding some downside pressure to Wall Street overnight, but relatively strong earnings news offering a degree of confidence.
