(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits slipped last week, but stayed at a stubbornly high level that underscored the labor market recovery was having trouble gaining traction.
Initial claims for state unemployment aid dropped 11,000 to 457,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, a touch more than the fall to 459,000 that financial markets had forecast.
Analysts say new applications for jobless benefits, which have trended sideways for much of this year, have to drop to a 400,000-450,000 range to signal sustainable jobs growth.
"The labor market is steadying but at a relatively high level of unemployment. It offers a hint of improvement in labor market conditions," said John Lonski, chief economist, Moody's Investors Service, New York. "Nevertheless, jobless claims remain quite elevated, and suggest labor slack persists."
Stocks on Wall Street briefly edged higher after the data as investors drew some comfort from the report and strong corporate earnings from Exxon Mobil Corp. But share prices were lower by midday as technology shares fell.
Prices for safe-haven U.S. government bonds rose.
Sluggish jobs growth, marked by a 9.5 percent unemployment rate, is the biggest obstacle to the economy's recovery from the most brutal recession since the 1930s -- a recovery that has shown signs of wilting in the last couple of months.
President Barack Obama, struggling in polls as Americans worry about the weak recovery, is pressing for approval of a $30 billion plan to help small businesses and create jobs. The plan was blocked in the Senate by Republicans on Thursday.
While growth in the United States appears to be taking a breather, recovery in some parts of Europe is back on track after being shaken by a sovereign debt crisis.
Euro zone economic sentiment rose strongly this month to a 28-month high and unemployment in Germany fell to its lowest level since November 2008.
The upbeat European data lifted the euro to a 12-week high against the U.S. dollar.
SLOWING GROWTH
A U.S. government report on Friday is expected to show growth slowed to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter from a 2.7 percent pace in the first three months of the year. The moderation will likely reflect a step back in consumer spending and factory output, and a wider trade gap.
The slowdown in manufacturing, which has led the recovery that started in the second half of 2009, likely persisted this month as most regional surveys have shown a pullback in activity.
However, a survey of manufacturing activity in the nation's Central Plains and eastern Rocky Mountain region released on Thursday showed a strong rise for July.
The slowdown in economic activity bodes poorly for the jobs market.
"With claims (for jobless aid) at these levels the 200,000-plus increases in private payrolls that we need to see in order to bring unemployment down quickly just aren't going to happen any time soon," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
With unemployment high, consumer spending has been tepid and home foreclosures have remained elevated.
Foreclosures rose in three of every four large U.S. metropolitan areas in the first half of this year, likely ruling out sustained home price gains until 2013, real estate data company RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
Unemployment was the main culprit driving foreclosure actions on more than 1.6 million properties, the company said.
In the week ended July 17, 4.57 million people were still receiving jobless benefits after an initial week of aid, up 81,000 from the prior week. The continuing claims data covered the survey period for the government's July household survey, from which the national unemployment rate is derived.
"We expect the July household survey to show a rise in the jobless rate to 9.6 percent," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado. The rate stood at 9.5 percent in June.
(Additional reporting by Lynn Adler and Richard Leong in New York; editing by Todd Eastham)
(Reuters) - A string of Europe's largest firms issued surprisingly upbeat profit reports on Thursday, bolstering an abrupt renewal of investor confidence in the region after months of debt turmoil and fears for the euro.
Broader economic data added to the theme, following some startlingly strong numbers last week -- euro zone economic sentiment rose strongly in July and German unemployment fell to its lowest level since November 2008.
Economists said the underlying performance in the region as a whole was never quite as bad as suggested by incessant news of debt default dangers in Greece and other southern European economies badly bruised by the recession of 2008-2009.
But they also cautioned that the abrupt swing toward a more positive mood did not change the fact that the region's economy is likely to heal only slowly with harsh government austerity measures poised to bite in the months ahead.
On the day, the upbeat news from some of Europe's biggest companies was nonetheless impressive and came on the heels of surveys last week which showed an unexpectedly high level of growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors in the region.
Publicis (PUBP.PA), the world's third-largest advertising group in terms of revenues, posted better-than-expected profit figures for the first half, declared its outlook better than previously envisaged, and the company's boss went as far as to declare the bad times over.
"We really have the feeling of being at the end of economic crisis, or even having put it completely behind us," Publicis CEO Maurice Levy told reporters.
His remarks were not isolated.
Dutch staffing firm Randstad (RAND.AS), second largest in the world in its field, said it was not seeing signs of a double dip in the economy, with companies continuing to hire more staff, notably in Germany and France.
"We are seeing growth everywhere. Even in Greece we are seeing the usual pattern. We are not seeing signs of a second dip," Randstad Chief Financial Officer Robert-Jan van de Kraats told Reuters.
Europe's debt market crisis spilled out of Greece late last year when markets took fright at the size of the country's deficit and ballooning debt, knocking the euro and European assets as investors started to fret about the risk of debt default in the region despite a Greek bailout.
Drugs and engineering giants gave good readouts too.
France's Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) beat second-quarter earnings expectations, AstraZeneca (AZN.L) posted strong results and German chemicals maker BASF (BASF.DE) surpassed analysts' earnings expectations for the sixth straight quarter, bolstered by a rebound in the car and electronics industries.
German engineering conglomerate Siemens (SIEGn.DE) posted a better-than-expected 40 percent rise in fiscal third-quarter operating profit, helped by cost cuts and the export fillip from a weaker euro -- an exchange rate advantage ironically spawned by the debt crisis and investor fears that at some stages fueled questions about the common currency's very survival.
That debt market crisis propelled debt refinancing costs to record highs for governments in places such as Portugal, Ireland and Spain in May-June, but they have fallen back sharply in many cases in the last 10 days or so, suggesting investors sense the worst of the danger has passed.
The premium investors demand to hold the 10-year bonds of Ireland and Portugal instead of the equivalent debt of safe-bet Germany has fallen about 18 percent in less than two weeks and markedly too in Spain.
MOOD SWING
All that reflects a suddenly more positive take on Europe as the region additionally gains attractiveness in relative terms for global investors after a string of somewhat disappointing news on the U.S. front in recent weeks.
Investment bank UBS, where economists have long argued that investors were perhaps overly negative about the fiscal woes of the region, published a note that captured the shift in mood as far as they see it.
"Today our Global Strategy team upgraded Europe to Neutral (from Underweight) as they position their portfolio for a more positive tone," said the note.
"We continue to promote Europe on compelling valuations, economic data and relief for the banks to boot," UBS said, noting that Germany's Ifo index of business sentiment registered its biggest leap in 20 years in July, British second-quarter GDP was much stronger than expected and the fact that "stress tests" on banks across the region had proven mostly reassuring.
Other signals that the crisis was petering out include sharp drops in the price of credit default swaps (CDS), which provide protection against debt default and which soared in May.
The Markit iTraxx SovX index of Western European CDS prices is now at 114 bps, 54 basis points below its highest closing level of 168 basis points, seen on May 7.
In addition to a renewed focus on economic activity, signs are that investors are also encouraged by the existence of the 750-billion-euro standby lending facility euro zone governments have put in place to stem debt crisis contagion.
Despite some skepticism, investors also appear reassured by the fact that all but seven banks passed so-called stress tests of their financial resilience [ID:nLDE6661JE]. Bank shares in Europe, as measured by the STOXX Europe 600 bank index .SX7P, are up 7.4 percent since the stress test results emerged on July 23. and 25 percent up from the trough they hit in early June.
NOT SO FAST
At Deutsche Bank, however, economist Gilles Moec warned against getting carried away about the economy's recovery.
"There's no big change in terms of the underlying macro picture: we're in for slow growth," said Moec.
After poor first-quarter GDP figures in much of Europe, the second-quarter is expected to be stronger by definition more than as a result of any major upswing, and government stimulus deployed to combat the recession is still in place, with much of the post-recession austerity yet to come.
Economic growth is expected to be a modest 1.1 this year and 1.3 percent in 2011, according to a Reuters poll of 40 economists that was published in mid-July [ID:nLAG006340]. That follows a GDP drop of 4.1 percent in 2009.
"What is really impressive is the speed at which investors' focus has shifted away from hammering Europe to having a more sober look at the U.S.," said Moec.
A Reuters poll of 15 Europe-based asset managers showed on Thursday that European investors boosted fixed-income allocation to a 2010 high in July, although, as Mauro Ratto, head of Europe and Asia management at Pioneer Investments, put it:
"Concerns about the euro government debt crisis seem to be receding. However, most warning signs are still flashing red ... the prospect of budget tightening is unlikely to improve European growth rates."
(Additional reporting by William James and Jeremy Gaunt in London, Lionel Laurent in Paris and Reuters company news reporters across Europe; Editing by Mike Peacock and Stephen Nisbet)
(Reuters) - Euro zone economic sentiment rose strongly in July, buoyed by figures from Germany that point to a recovery as the currency area overcomes the sovereign debt crisis, but the outlook remains uncertain.
The European Commission said its economic sentiment indicator for the 16-nation currency area rose to 101.3 in July, a 28-month high, from an upwardly revised 99.0 in June. Economists polled by Reuters expected the index to stay at 99.0.
Economic morale is the latest in a string of indicators that have shown the currency area continues to recover from the worst economic crisis in decades, despite turbulence on its sovereign debt market and uncertainty about the health of banks.
"July's improvement in the (euro zone) consumer and business surveys adds to the evidence that the euro-zone is performing surprisingly well, but with stark divergences between countries," said Jennifer Mckeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics.
Martin van Vliet said: "It confirms the spillover effect of the debt crisis to the real economy was limited. But the euro zone economy is bound to lose steam in the second half of the year. For now, let's enjoy it while it lasts."
OUTLOOK GLOOMY
Growth may falter because of fiscal austerity measures ordered by many governments to prevent the sovereign debt crisis from spreading from Greece to other countries. Foreign demand for European goods is also expected to diminish.
Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight, noted that the index measuring consumers' willingness to make major purchases over the next 12 months fell as the did the figure showing consumers' willingness to make major purchases at present.
"This raises question marks as to whether improved consumer confidence will translate into significantly higher spending. We have our doubts on this given that the euro zone unemployment rate is currently at a near 12-year high of 10.0 percent," he said.
The Commission said economic sentiment improved thanks to an increase in the index for the export-driven industrial sector to -4 from -6 and improvement in services to 6 from 4.
Morale of consumers, whose demand is crucial for making economic growth self-sustaining, rose to -14 from -17.
The increase was driven by strong figures in Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, where economic sentiment rose to 110.1 from 106.1. The figure also increased in France and Italy, but fell in Spain.
In the wider 27-nation European Union, economic sentiment grew to 102.2 in July from 100.3 in June.
The Commission's separate business climate indicator for the euro zone increased more than expected, rising to 0.66 in July from 0.40 in June. It was the highest reading since March, 2008.
It has forecast that the euro zone will register growth of 0.9 percent this year after gross domestic product contracted 4.1 percent in 2009.
The Commission survey also showed that euro zone inflation expectation remained muted.
Selling price expectations in industry fell to 5 in July from 6 in June, while consumers' assessment of price trends over the next 12 months remained unchanged at 11.
The European Central Bank, which watches the indicators closely, is expected to leave its main interest rate at 1.0 percent well into 2011.
The euro rose to an 11-week high at above USD1.31 Thursday after improving euro-zone economic data contrasted with festering worries that the U.S. economy is slowing.
The dollar traded at its lowest point in three months against a trade-weighted basket of its competitors as investors, worried over the lack of pace in U.S. growth, turned away from the greenback.
A better-than-expected reading of U.S. weekly jobless claims failed to extinguish the worry, as the previous week's claims were revised upward, signaling little improvement in the labor sector and keeping the dollar under pressure. The Labor Department announced initial claims for jobless benefits declined by 11,000 to 457,000 in the week ended July 24.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.556 from 82.132. The index traded at its lowest level since late April.
Separately, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Thursday lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% after a similar increase last month, but the cautious tone of the statement has firmed up expectations there will be a pause in the hiking cycle later in the year. The New Zealand dollar fell slightly against the greenback on the cautious tone of the statement.
Market expectation
The euro continues to benefit from easing concerns over the region's sovereign-debt crisis. The worst of that crisis has likely passed, and there are signs of confidence returning, though some countries will still face deficit-related problems, analysts.
Analysts warned that the euro is likely to enjoy continued support over the near-term, especially if U.S. data remains weak, its gains may prove limited if concerns about a slowing U.S. economy widen to include the broader global economy.
The Japanese yen rose today against the U.S. currency as the growing concern for the global recovery spurs the investors to seek safety, increasing the appeal of the Japanese currency.
The U.S. economy continues to show the sings of the weakness. While the banking sector in Europe looks pretty robust, the manufacturing sector gives the reason for the concern. According to the experts’ estimates, the manufacturing confidence in the Eurozone was minus five in July.
USD/JPY fell from 87.44 to about 87.17 today as of 8:58 GMT after reaching as low as 87.08.
The euro rose against the U.S. dollar today on the concern for the U.S. economic recovery, which decreased the appeal of the U.S. currency for the investors and increased the attractiveness of the shared European currency.
The euro regained some of its strength after the stress tests showed that only seven European banks required to raise capital. In the same time, the U.S. gives more and more reasons for the concern about its economic growth. The analysts’ estimates say that the gross domestic product rose by the annual rate of 2.5 percent in the last quarter, down from 2.7 percent in the three months earlier. The government report for the GDP will be released tomorrow.
EUR/USD rose from 1.2994 to 1.3074 today as of 8:36 GMT.
Markets are trading in a lethargic manner as participants continue to nervously take on risk-correlated trades. The move toward risk is logical because without the massive sovereign crisis fear hovering over the market like the Sword of Damocles, one needs to consider the fundamentals - particularly monetary policy, as the core driver. Overall, the rate at which central banks are mopping up excess liquidity has been slower-than-expected with the BoE and Fed still discussing the potential for further QE.
In this era of ultra-low policy rates, risk taking will be encouraged. In the past few days, we’ve seen Eurozone sovereign spreads narrow considerably, the VIX index is trending lower along with decreased FX volatilities and global equity markets have demonstrated a resilience to bearish news. If corporate earnings come out strong, this could be the start of a summer rally, however we’re not so sure. Our view is that the fears surrounding sovereign risk may have subsided for the time being, but will most likely return this fall.
Even with the recent stint of positive news, foreboding signs are on the horizon. The Fed’s Beige book released yesterday reported that the US recovery remained on track but has begun to actively slow. The notion of a US slowdown was reinforced by recent US data, including yesterday’s durable goods figures.
In New Zealand, the RBNZ raised its policy rate 25 bps to 3.00% as we had predicted and the accompanying statement asserted that future growth prospects had deteriorated considerably. Traders rapidly paired down their interest rate expectations which in turn weighed on the NZD.
Governor King’s comment seemed to slam into the sterling market, which was curious because his remarks were really nothing new or original. He recommended caution over reading too much into the strong Q2 GDP figures and reaffirmed that inflation remained finely in check. Paul Fisher stated that the global outlook had weakened and David Miles resonated with the most dovish view of all – that inflation would taper off and the current ultra-loose policy was correct.
The combination of all these comments hit the GBP value like a sledge hammer. It wasn’t until Sentance’s hawkish comments that the “current policy setting was extreme” that some sanity was regained in the FX market.
We are convinced that the market is now underestimating the strength of the UK recovery and that the current downtrend in inflation will flat line and then begin to move higher. The BoE interest rate path should give GBP a boost in the mid-term.
Otherwise, there’s a frenzy of data to be released during the European session today and after that it’s onto corporate earnings. We will continue to use equity market activity as a compass for FX directions. Correlation remains particularly high between the EURUSD and S&P and should thus be traded accordingly.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 07:30 SEK Jun retail sales, +0.6% m/m EXP; prior +1.6% m/m, +2.7% y/y. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment rate, 7.6% sa EXP; prior 7.7%. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment, nsa and sa; prior 3.153 mln, 3.23 mln. 08:00 EUR GER Jul unemployment - change, -10k sa EXP; prior -21.0k. 08:00 EUR ITA Jun wages, +2.6% y/y EXP; prior +0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y. 08:30 GBP Jun consumer credit, GBP300 mln EXP; prior GBP331 mln. 08:30 GBP Jun mortgage appl/loans, 49k/GBP1 bln EXP; prior 49.81k/GBP1.184 bln. 08:30 GBP Jun money supply; prior unch. 09:00 EUR Jul business climate index, 0.39 EXP; prior 0.37. 09:00 EUR Jul consumer sentiment index, -14.0 EXP; prior -17.0. 09:00 EUR Jul economic sentiment index, 99.1 EXP; prior 98.7. 09:00 EUR Jul industrial sentiment index, -5.0 EXP; prior -6.0. 09:00 EUR Jul services sentiment index; prior 4.0. 12:30 USD Initial jobless claims, thous (4wma) 24-Jul 23:01 GBP GfK consumer confidence survey, bal Jul
EurUsd We’ve had another day of tight range trading in EURUSD, and for the time being there is a ceiling of resistance at 1.3046 that is blocking the path higher. We are still playing the bullish break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart, and based on the projected path of that triangle we are expecting a move to 1.3290 in the coming days. Once we clear 1.3046, the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support just below at 1.2940 –should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then eye technical levels below at 1.2793 (23 Jul low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd There were a few hairy moments yesterday for GBPUSD as BoE’s King hit the newswires to downplay the significance of the latest GDP reading, but tellingly the temporary sell-off was met with eager buyers clambering to get in on this impressive GBPUSD recovery, and the pair has since pushed to fresh highs of 1.5655. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5385 to get long. The way things have gone so far, we may not even get a correction that deep as decent support is also anticipated around the 200-day moving average at 1.5545, 1.5525 pivot, then again at 1.5443 (yesterday’s low). Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, and beyond there we open up the possibility of re-testing the top of the 8-week uptrend channel (currently at 1.5950) before the psychologically significant 1.6000.
UsdJpy USDJPY may have slumped in a rather ungainly fashion back below 87.50 in the past few sessions, but the pair is at the very least continued carve out successively higher highs and higher lows since the double bottom around 86.25 levels. The last rally (which topped out at 88.11) was thwarted by a pretty formidable confluence of resistance levels (8-week downtrend resistance, top of 1-week uptrend channel and 88.00 pivot), but we still believe the bulls can overcome these barriers on a subsequent re-test now they are more comfortably spaced out. The 8-week downtrend has now crept down to 87.90 while the top of the current uptrend channel has climbed to 88.25; however thereafter few levels are discernible ahead of our triangle target 88.85. Should the rally have the momentum to continue beyond there, look for sellers at 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). The most convincing support level to try getting in on the long trade appears to be the lower edge of the 1-week uptrend which is now seen at 87.10-15 (already had one test of that area this morning), then further supports anticipated at 86.82 (Tuesday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf Despite the bullish engulfing candlestick on Monday/Tuesday of this week AND the important break of the 1-month downtrend channel, the bulls have looked lacklustre in the past 24 hours and have sloppily allowed the 1-week uptrend to break down around 1.0560. This conclusively negates the bullish flag pattern we had proposed yesterday, and seems compelling argument to move to the sidelines for the time being on this one and wait for more favourable risk-reward trades to present themselves. Buyers should be able to catch the fall if it extends to 1.0450, and an extremely important support still remains at 1.0400 so we would look to resume buying down at those levels. Strong selling interest may once again cap rallies at 1.0640-47 (13 Jul & 27 Jul highs and 200-day moving average), and given the propensity of July/August markets to be directionless and range bound, we would actually look to sell at those levels rather than look for a continuation higher. IF the bulls manage to pull their fingers out and effect that break higher, a powerful resistance level around 1.0700 is backed up but the top of the 1-week uptrend at 1.0710.
MORNING BRIEFING: Beige Book shows some districts slowing economy
What’s new: United States: Financial state of emergency in California United States: Beige book report shows some districts slowing economy Euro zone: Tougher lending rules for banks from ECB United Kingdom: No tacit agreement to keep low rate China: IMF board split on China’s exchange rate debate Japan: BOJ’s Kamezaki says won’t base policy on forex New Zealand: RBNZ raises interest rates by 25bps to 3.00%
Today:
Rates in Asia and Indices: EURUSD: 1.3045 - 1.2978. USDCHF: 1.0581 - 1.0517. GBPUSD: 1.5631- 1.5584. EURJPY: 113.97 – 113.18. USDJPY: 87.52 – 87.10. DowJones: 10'497.88 -0.38% NASDAQ: 2'264.56 -1.04% S & P 500: 1'106.13 -0.69% Nikkei: 9'696.02 -0.59% Shanghai: 2'648.60 +0.57% Gold: $ 1'167.20 Crude Oil: $ 77.22
Comments: In an interview, British finance minister George Osborne declared ‘There is no tacit agreement with Bank of England Governor Mervyn King on keeping interets rates low. He is absolutely independent, as is his Monetary Policy Committee.'
New Zealand’s Central bank lifted interest rates by 25bps to 3.0%, but scaled back its plans for further move. The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signalled the pace of further interest rate hikes would be less than earlier thought. The kiwi fell to a low near $0.7202, from about $0.7287 before the announcement.
The Beige Book, released yesterday at 2000 CET, reports on conditions in all 12 districts that are part of the Federal Reserve system. The report, based on information before July 19, said activity "continued to increase, on balance" though Cleveland and Kansas City said business held steady. "Among those districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said the pace of economic activity had slowed recently," the Fed said.
The Euro is still hovering near an 11-week high against the US Dollar reached earlier this week. EURUSD is up to 1.3045 today, just shy of the recent high reached 27th of July. Against the Yen, the single currency dipped on high selling by Japanese exporters. Traders are expecting more offers to emerge if the Euro rises to above 115 Yen.
€ The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2965 level and was capped around the $1.3040 level. The big news in the market today was a weaker-than-expected result for U.S. June durable goods orders. Defying expectations of a positive print, the headline number came in at -1.0%, down from the revised May tally of -0.8%, while the ex-transportation component fell to -0.6% from the May result of 1.2%. Sub-components such as capital goods orders non-defense ex-air were also considerably weaker and these data suggest the U.S. economy sputtered lower at the end of the first half of the year. Other data saw MBA mortgage applications off 4.4% from the prior +7.6% result. Weekly initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data will be released tomrorow followed by GDP, PCE, and final July University of Michigan consumer sentiment data on Friday. The Federal Reserve released its July Beige Book today and its noted that economic growth decelerated in some areas over the past two months. The expiration of a homebuyers’ tax credit and a decline in commercial real estate both had a negative impact on the U.S. economy. The Fed continues to anticipate “continued moderate growth.” New Fed nominees Yellen, Diamons, and Raskin won their Senate votes today and will soon join the Board of Governors. In eurozone news, provisional German states’ July consumer price inflation data released today came in on the elevated side. The preliminary national July CPI came in at 0.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y with the harmonized measure at +0.3% m/m and +1.2% y/y. French June CPI data will be released tomorrow. The European Central Bank introduced more stringent rules today on bank collateral including new haircuts on certain bonds. Euro offers are cited around the US$ 1.3265 level.
¥/ CNY The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥87.25 level and was capped around the ¥88.10 level. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Kamezaki reported the central bank “wants to make utmost efforts proactively to escape from deflation and return to a sustainable growth path under price stability,” noting a stronger yen will hurt exporters. In contrast, other BoJ officials including Governor Shirakawa have been hesitant about commenting on the strong yen. There is speculation that industrial production growth in Japan is decelerating and this may increase pressure on the BoJ to ease further. Yen gains were also prompted by weaker-than-expected Australian consumer price inflation data, suggesting global growth continues to decelerate. Reserve Bank of Australia will likely not hike rates next week and the yen could stay bid as a result of this evolving monetary and economic landscape. While Kamezaki’s remarks may not increase the changes of yen-selling intervention by the government, traders remain fixated on the ¥85 level. Economic growth in Japan may also slow in the fourth quarter. The spread between three-month U.S. Dollar Libor and three-month yen Libor narrowed to 23.937 basis points today, the smallest difference since 20 May. Data released in Japan overnight saw July small business confidence improve to 48.1 from the prior reading of 47.4. June retail trade data will be released tonight. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 2.70% to close at ¥9,573.27. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the ¥86.29 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥113.20 level and was capped around the ¥114.70 level. The British pound moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested bids around the ¥135.85 level while the Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¥82.50 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar depreciated vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.7778 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.7784. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland warned that the anticipated appreciation of the Chinese yuan will not lead to a “substantial” reduction in the U.S. trade deficit. People’s Bank of China is expected to keep monetary policy relatively stable and continue to promote domestic final private demand.
£ The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.5635 level and was supported around the US$ 1.5545 level. Data to be released in the U.K. tomorrow include July Nationwide house prices, June net consumer credit, June net lending secured on dwellings, June mortgage approvals, and the July GfK consumer confidence survey. Bank of England Governor King today expressed concerns that proposed reforms to the Basel capital accord will not be strong enough. Monetary Policy Committee member Miles said now is not the proper time to change policy while MPC member Bean said sterling’s decline will likely have a larger-than-expected impact on consumer prices. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5270 level. The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.8310 level and was capped around the £0.8365 level.
The Australian and Kiwi dollars were the big losers on Wednesday on the back of a weaker Australian CPI report and dovish interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
AUD/USD shed 92 pip on the back of yesterday’s weaker than expected CPI report. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.6% quarter-over-quarter growth rate in second quarter CPI, despite calls for an increase to 1.0% from 0.9% in Q1. Annual CPI growth moved up to 3.1% from 2.9% in Q1, despite calls for 3.4%. The pair last traded down 88 pips at 0.8936.
Meanwhile, NZD remains under pressure after a dovish interest rate decision earlier on Thursday. Although the RBNZ hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.00%, as expected, central bank Governor Alan Bollard said the pace of monetary policy expansion may slow. He added that the economic outlook for the region has softened, with domestic demand subdued, and the New Zealand dollar stronger than what is consistent with the fundamentals. NZD/USD last traded lower by 119 pips at 0.7213.
Meanwhile the USD remained on top, outperformed only by the yen after core durable goods unexpectedly fell by 0.6% despite calls for a 0.4% gain. Also, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book Economic Report said that economic activity in the U.S. slowed in some areas.
Looking ahead, focus will be on a barrage of euro zone climate indicators as well as U.S. weekly jobless claims.
The dollar declined against the yen in Asia Thursday on speculation that U.S. Treasury yields will fall further due to concerns over a slowdown in the world's biggest economy.
Strong demand at a U.S. five-year sovereign note auction overnight suggested that recent weak economic reports from the U.S. have made investors pessimistic about the country's growth outlook.
The U.S. currency was weaker also because of speculation that foreign investors will buy new shares offered by Japanese companies, a process which involves yen-buying.
On Wednesday, market sentiment was dampened after data showing demand for U.S. durable goods slid for a second straight month in June. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's latest beige-book report pointed to signs that the economic recovery may be running out of steam, adding to the market's disappointment.
The dollar was at JPY87.19 as of 0450 GMT, lower than JPY87.44 in New York Wednesday.
The euro was higher at USD1.3013 at 0450 GMT from USD1.2988 overnight while it was lower against the yen at JPY113.47 from JPY113.54.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 81.970 from 82.132.
The British pound remained at a 5-month peak against the dollar despite dovish comments from the Bank of England, which did little to diminish optimism about the UK economic outlook after a run of encouraging data.
Flat Asian stock markets left the Australian dollar floundering Thursday, rising only slightly through the trading day, with crucial Chinese manufacturing data Sunday the next major test of market confidence. General U.S. dollar weakness and cross-related demand helped to put some support under the Aussie dollar.
Market expectation
Currency dealers believe Treasury yields will keep falling for the time being, meaning investors will see less returns from their dollar-denominated assets. That view helped prompt dollar selling, said analysts.
Investors will pay attention to Thursday's seven-year Treasury bond tender to see whether yields keep falling.
The euro won't be able to rise far above USD1.3, dealers said, because big U.S. hedge funds have resumed selling the euro based on their medium-term European economic forecasts.
The greenback may fall to as low as JPY86.00 in this global day, some dealers said. But the pace of any decline below JPY86.50 would be slow due to dollar-buying orders placed by Japanese importers, said analysts.
European stock markets are expected to have an uneven open Thursday, as investors weigh up the competing influences of disappointing U.S. economic data but upbeat second quarter corporate earnings.
(Reuters) - Gold bounced higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened and physical buying picked up, but gains are seen limited after holdings in the world's largest gold-backed ETF fell to the lowest since early June.
Premiums for gold bars edged up in Asia, but although jewelers were happy to buy at lower levels, uncertainties in the outlook for the U.S. economy and poor technicals weighed on sentiment. Other precious metals tracked bullion higher.
Spot gold added $4.10 an ounce to $1,166.65 an ounce by 0602 GMT after falling as low as $1,156.90 on Wednesday, its weakest since late April. Bullion hovered below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
For a 24-hour gold technical outlook, see:
here
"There's a lot of safe-haven positioning being unwound right now in the gold market. Potentially, it could unwind down $1,130-$1,120 pretty quickly," said Mark Pervan, senior commodities analyst at ANZ in Melbourne.
"A lot of the gold gains in the last six months were driven by euro weakness, and that was really safe haven buying. The trend doesn't look good. Potentially, it could move down toward the low $1,100s," said Pervan, referring to levels last seen in April.
The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD.P), said its holdings fell to 1,282.279 tonnes by July 28 from 1,300.829 on July 27 -- their lowest since early June. The holdings hit a record at 1,320.436 tonnes on June 29.
Cash gold was nearly 8 percent below a lifetime high around $1,264 struck in June, when investors poured money into bullion on worries the euro zone debt crisis would spread. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose $5.8 $1,166.2 an ounce.
Gold bars were offered at a $1.50 premium to the spot London prices in Hong Kong, up from $1.20 on Monday. In Singapore, premiums rose to $1.50 from between 80 cents and $1.20 earlier this week, while dealers in Tokyo pushed up the differentials to $1 from 50 cents.
"The premiums have gone up after prices dipped to the $1,160 mark. There are strong inquiries in the physical market, that's why we feel that we should push up the premiums," said a dealer in Tokyo.
The U.S. dollar slipped toward three-month lows against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investors cut their positions due to fresh evidence of a patchy recovery in the U.S.
"We're seeing a bit of short covering, so that's why the market has stabilized at current levels. A drop in the SPDR ETF may suggests investors think the euro zone is getting better," said a dealer in Hong Kong.
"Gold looks slightly bearish, although we see a mixture of buying from jewelers and other physical buyers."
The European Central Bank will likely wait until late 2011 before hiking interest rates, according to a Reuters poll of over 70 economists who stayed cautious in July despite some encouraging economic data.
The Nikkei ended down on Thursday as U.S. stocks slipped after weak durable goods figures and a downbeat assessment of the economy from the Fed's Beige Book kept the benchmark S&P 500 trapped below its 200-day moving average. .T .N
(Reuters) - The euro dipped against the yen on Thursday, pulling away from a recent two-month high on selling by Japanese exporters, while the kiwi struggled after New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates but warned further hikes could be more gradual.
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled the pace of further interest rate hikes would be less than earlier thought. The kiwi fell to a low near $0.7205, from about $0.7280 before the announcement.
After staging a mild recovery, the New Zealand dollar was up 0.5 percent from late U.S. trading on Wednesday at $0.7244.
"The kiwi was dented by dovish comments from New Zealand's central bank, that came a day after data showed inflation has cooled in Australia," said Hideki Amikura, deputy general manager of forex trading at Nomura Trust and Banking.
Australian inflation data released on Wednesday proved far more tame than expected, ruling out the need for an interest rate rise possibly for the rest of the year.
The euro edged up 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3014, hovering near its 11-week high of $1.3047 hit on trading platform EBS earlier this week.
But the euro dipped 0.2 percent against the yen to 113.40 yen, pulling away from its highest in more than two months of 114.74 yen struck on trading platform EBS on Wednesday.
A trader for a Japanese bank cited euro-selling by Japanese exporters before the month-end, adding that more offers were likely to emerge if the euro rebounds and rises toward 115 yen.
"A lot of exporters are waiting at levels above 115 yen," the trader said.
The dollar slipped 0.3 percent against the yen to 87.19, extending losses after data on Wednesday showed new U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell for a second straight month in June.
Still, the core measure of orders excluding aircraft and defense rose 0.6 percent in June, on top of an upwardly revised 4.6 percent jump in May, suggesting activity was not nearly as soft as the headline number suggested.
The dollar is likely to find support against the yen at levels around 86.80 yen, near the dollar's intraday low hit on Monday and Tuesday, said Teppei Ino, a technical analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
"There aren't strong reasons to bid up the yen beyond those levels at the moment, especially ahead of key U.S. data on Friday," Ino said. U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product data is due out on Friday.
A recent string of lackluster U.S. economic data has weighed on the greenback and led investors to cut short positions in the euro.
The single currency touched an 11-week high against the dollar earlier this week, helped by strong bank earnings and gains in European equities, following last week's favorable results of regulatory stress tests.
The dollar index .DXY was down 0.3 percent at 81.956, with near-term support around 81.44, a 50 percent retracement of the index's move from a low of 74.17 in November 2009 to a high near 88.71 in June.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday pointed to a less-than-booming recovery with sluggish housing markets and sales of costly items like new cars weakening.
(Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney and Hideyuki Sano and Rika Otsuka in Tokyo; Editing by Joseph Radford)
(Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods fell unexpectedly for a second straight month in June, posting the largest drop since August in a sign economic recovery cooled in the second quarter.
However, the Commerce Department report on Wednesday showed cash-flush businesses continued to invest in equipment. That implied underlying demand remained intact with firms exhibiting confidence in the moderate economic recovery.
"The bottom line is that the data show business investment had a very strong second quarter and, although the recovery in manufacturing may be losing a little momentum, it is hardly collapsing," said Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.
Durable goods orders dropped 1.0 percent after falling 0.8 percent in May, surprising financial markets that had expected a 1.0 percent increase. Durable goods include big-ticket items such as cars and planes.
But orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending, unexpectedly rose 0.6 percent after increasing by an upwardly revised 4.6 percent in May. Markets had expected a flat reading.
Stocks on Wall Street fell as investors focused on the overall decline in orders and a full-year earnings forecast from Boeing Co that was below market consensus.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell for a second straight day, closing below its 200-day moving average, currently around 1,114.
Prices for safe-haven U.S. government debt rose and the dollar rallied against the euro but fell versus the yen.
Data from consumer spending to manufacturing have suggested the recovery from the longest and deepest recession since the 1930s took a step back in the past few months.
The government is expected to report on Friday that growth slowed to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the April-June period from a 2.7 percent pace in the first three months of the year.
A separate report from the Federal Reserve showed U.S. economic activity was still rising but at a subdued rate.
"Among those districts reporting improvements in economic activity, a number of them noted that the increases were modest, and two districts, Atlanta and Chicago, said the pace of economic activity had slowed recently," the Fed said in its Beige Book, which is based on conversations with business contacts across the nation.
BUSINESS INVESTMENT GROWING
Some analysts said there was a chance second-quarter growth could beat expectations given signs of strong business investment. With profits booming, companies have stepped up spending on equipment and software after aggressively cutting back during the recession.
"There has been a loss of momentum in the past two months. It's yet to be seen how much of the upward momentum from earlier this year has been reversed," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global in New York. "(But) I think the trend toward improvement is still intact."
Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing, which has benefited from businesses replenishing inventories drawn down to record lows during the recession. However, that effort appears to be running out of steam.
Economists had expected durable goods orders to rise last month because Boeing received 49 orders for civilian aircraft in June compared to only five in May.
But non-defense aircraft orders tumbled 25.6 percent after falling 30.2 percent in May. Analysts said most of Boeing's orders were too late in the month to be caught by the report.
The drag on orders also came from bookings for computers and electronic products, which saw their largest decline since October. Orders for machinery recorded their biggest decline in 14 months, while those for primary metals fell by the most since March 2009.
"We expect further moderation in durable goods orders as the inventory cycle fades over the second half of the year," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York.
Durable goods shipments, which go into the calculation of gross domestic product, fell 0.3 percent after sliding 0.7 percent in May.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday that demand for loans to buy homes rose for the second straight week last week to the highest level since the end of June, but hovered just above 13-year lows.
(Reuters) - There has been just an inkling in recent weeks that financial markets might start to take their lead from the 'real' economy again after three years of being tossed about by their own panics and periodic exuberance.
Since the finance industry flailed into its crisis of confidence, doubting its own practitioners and the governments who became over-dependent on them, it has been almost impossible for households and companies to work out what markets are trying to predict about production, employment and consumption.
The net result has been the tail wagging the dog.
Guess the ephemeral mood of global markets six months hence -- voracious risk appetite or bunker-seeking safety -- and you might just stand a chance of predicting where businesses, consumers and policymakers would be forced to follow.
And while PIMCO asset managers predict a post-crisis 'new normal' of years of sluggish growth and policy angst, many yearn for an 'old normal' where finance reflects, rather th7an dictates, what is happening in the real economy where people produce and consume goods and services.
A VERY FINANCIAL COUP
For some, the credit crisis and aftermath had been fomented for decades by a more than a doubling of financial services to some 7.5 percent of the U.S. economy in the 40 years to 2007.
"The 3 percent of GDP (gross domestic product) that was made up of financial services in 1965 was clearly sufficient to the task, the proof being that the decade was a strong candidate for the greatest economic decade of the 20th century," Jeremy Grantham, Chairman of Boston-based asset manager GMO, told clients this month.
Lauding this month's U.S. financial regulation bill, he added: "The extra 4.5 percent would seem to be without material value except to the recipients. Yet it is a form of tax on the remaining real economy and should reduce by 4.5 percent a year its ability to save and invest, both of which did slow down."
Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson's 2009 Atlantic magazine essay, "The Quiet Coup", took a more conspiratorial view of the same phenomenon in sketching the lobbying power of the financial industry over that period.
Johnson estimated U.S. financial sector profits, which had never topped 16 percent of overall corporate profits in the decade to 1985, soared to 41 percent by the noughties. Average financial sector compensation as a share of the average in other industries almost doubled to 181 percent.
There was a similar development in Britain, where financial services had reached 8.5 percent of total output just before the crisis.
Deregulation, privatization, trade globalization and demographic trends were all catalysts for this growth in finance and the current regulatory backlash against the banks is unlikely to return the sector to its 1960s size.
But if knocking the froth off finance allows a more even relationship between real economic trends and financial markets, there may be a chance of tempering the endless boom and busts.
CHANGE AFOOT?
Is there any sign of that happening right now? Well, just an inkling.
In the past three years, financial and investment flows have been violently herded in and out of "safe-haven" cash and liquid assets, correlations zoomed between all asset classes and geographic regions, and risk gauges -- largely volatility measures -- careened from historic lows to highs and back again.
This mass behavior had been building for 20 years. Computer trading strategies supercharged the effect over time.
Yet as this year's euro zone sovereign debt crisis ebbs into the second half of the year, the herd seems for now to have stopped stampeding from its own rifle shots and may be listening more carefully to the underlying economy again.
Mindful of near-zero interest rates in cash, an expected dash back to safe-haven money market funds never really materialized during the worst of the euro crisis in April and May and 2010 outflows from these funds are still close to half a trillion dollars.
Partly as a result, stresses evident in lock-step asset correlations have ebbed and investors seem easier with idiosyncratic trends in selected stocks and credits.
Equity volatility has halved from April/May peaks and quartered from post-Lehman Brothers highs in 2008 and is holding closer to 20-year averages just above 20 percent rather than returning to unrealistic pre-2007 levels in single digits.
Even the world's main exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and euro -- long captive to "risk on/risk off" swings -- are starting to reflect interest rate gaps more than stress.
For active and diversified investors, this is how it is supposed to be and allows them to do what it says on the tin.
To be sure, we've been here before. But there are rays of hope for some return to old normals.
(Graphic by Scott Barber; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
The Polish zloty extended its rally for the eighth consecutive day against the euro as the estimates of the Economy Ministry showed that the economy grew with the increasing pace, igniting the speculation that the central bank may raise the interest rates. The Polish currency dropped against the U.S. dollar slightly.
The Economy Ministry’s report showed that the gross domestic product grew by 3.1 percent in the first half of this year, compared 1.8 percent in 2009. The ministry also estimated that the annual rate of the private consumption grew by 2.2 percent. The Polish currency rose the most against the euro today among other emerging market currencies.
Nigel Rendell, senior emerging-market strategist at RBC Capital said
The international environment has been quite helpful and the wave of uncertainty has been removed so that’s encouraging people to go into emerging markets and the zloty looks best in the region. The possibility that interest rates may be lifted before the end of the year is also acting as an incentive.
EUR/PLN traded at 4.0018 today as of 19:57 GMT after opening at 4.0054. USD/PLN fell to 3.0822 from the opening rate of 3.0791.
The U.S. dollar fell today against the Japanese yen after the report today showed that the orders for the U.S. durable goods fell unexpectedly in June, fueling the concern for the economic recovery and spurring the investors to turn to the safety of Japan’s currency. The EUR/USD moves up and down today after it closed yesterday near its opening level.
Durable goods orders declined for the second consecutive month, falling by 1.0 percent in June after dropping 0.8 percent in May. The impact of this report was even more significant as the market participants anticipated the growth, not another month of decline. The unfavorable economic data outweighed the better than expected corporate earning, causing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index drop by 0.5 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.4 percent.
Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve, said on July 21st that “the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain”. The data from the U.S. definitely added to the risk aversion sentiment on the markets, increasing the appeal of the yen.
USD/JPY traded near 87.67 as of 16:27 GMT today after opening at 87.90. EUR/USD near 1.2995 close to the opening level of 1.2996.
The dollar was flat to lower Wednesday, slightly extending a loss versus the Japanese yen while seeing little movement versus other currencies after U.S. durable-goods orders showed an unexpected June drop.
The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was slightly lower at 82.123 versus 82.200 in North American trade late Tuesday.
The euro, which failed to maintain an earlier push above the USD1.30 level, slipped to USD1.2980, down slightly from USD1.2989 in North American trading late Tuesday.
Against Japan's yen, the euro erased an early gain to stand at JPY113.82, off slightly from JPY114.05 late Tuesday.
The dollar, meanwhile, slightly extended a loss versus the yen to trade at JPY87.56, down from JPY87.82 late Tuesday. The yen tends to be among the largest beneficiaries of declines in risk appetite.
The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods fell 1% in June, defying expectations for a 1% rise.
The British pound traded at USD1.5601, up 0.1%. The currency showed little reaction to testimony by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and other central bankers, including Andrew Sentence, before a parliamentary committee.
Market expectation
Worry over the U.S. economy taking a downturn is weighing on the dollar, analysts said. Investors will pour over the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, to be released at 2 p.m. EDT, for another assessment of the U.S. recovery from the perspective of the regional Fed banks.
Economists widely expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points during late Wednesday New York hours to 3.00%. But a slightly more cautious statement is expected as the economic recovery remains fairly tepid.
Until key data from major economies grow gloomier the franc is likely to remain on its weaker path. Should the data published in the U.S. continue to disappoint, sentiment could deteriorate once again, benefiting the franc. While that is not the case, the franc is likely to remain under pressure, said analysts.
Risk correlated trades had a strong showing yesterday as banking stocks rallied and concerns over the inadequacies of the Stress Test dissipated. The USD lost ground to both the GBP and EUR while longs in JPY and CHF were equally cut. Risky trades continued to benefit throughout the trading day in spite of US Consumer confidence data coming in negative. We especially like the appreciation we saw in sterling. We suspect there has been a fundamental shift in GBP prospects due to the sturdy GDP reading last Friday and we anticipate further upside to sterling in the near-to-mid term.
Asian equity markets are having a roaring day and the positive effects are spilling over into European indexes. We are seeing other encouraging signs as VIX dropped below its 200-day moving average and Gold continues to come under heavy selling pressure. There has been a noticeable lack of 1st tier economic data and we are cautious in accumulating too much risk just yet. These are the dog days of the trading summer – as such, low liquidly and inconsistent participants will continue to be as important as real data.
During the Asian session, the big news was the disappointing Australian Q2 CPI reading which came in well below markets expectations. The market was quick to shift rate hike expectations from August to later in the fall (ACM expects a November hike). The AUDUSD dropped like a rock to .8923 from .9020 in response to the release. With the inflation rate now within the RBA’s 2-3% target, markets now pricing in a late fall hike. The large AUD interest rate differential will further erode, which in turn will lend added support to currencies like CAD and NOK. Look for CAD & NOK to gain in the near term.
We are still highly constructive on the global economy and suspect commodities prices to trend higher which should give AUD a boost against the USD. With all the excitement around AUD, the CPI watchers will now be turning their gaze toward New Zealand.
In NZ, July business confidence and activity outlook surveys showed a significant deterioration from the June results. Analysts are in unanimous agreement that the RBNZ will raise the OCR 25 bps to 3.00% at its policy meeting tonight. Market and media interest will be focused on the accompanying statement released with the rate hike. Although recent NZ CPI readings have come in lower-than-expected, the markets are still pricing in roughly 75 bps worth of hikes between now and the year’s end.
We believe that the RBNZ statement will sound slightly more dovish, signaling a minor shift in interest rate trajectory as policy makers prepare for a global economic slowdown later this year. The sudden adjustment in rate path should translate into short-term NZD weakness, especially against the AUD.
As for today, US Durable Goods data is due to be released as investors continue to look for directional signals for the US recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book will likely reflect recent data softness.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 00:00 EUR GER Jul HICP - prelim, +0.2% m/m, +1.1% y/y exp; prior unch, +0.8%. 07:00 EUR ESP Jun retail sales; prior -1.9% y/y. 08:45 GBP BoE Gov King, other MPC member testimony before Parliament. 10:00 GBP Jun Land Registry house prices. 12:30 USD Jun durable goods orders, +2.9% m/m exp; prior -0.6%. 12:30 USD Jun - ex-transport, +1.0% m/m exp; prior +1.6%. 18:00 USD Fed Beige Book release. 18:30 USD Senate vote on Fed nominees 21:00 NZD RBNZ interest rate announcement, % 3.00% exp, 2.75% prior
EurUsd The symmetrical triangle pattern on the hourly chart is still very much in play, and thus far we have seen a couple of nudges through the 20 Jul high at 1.3028. We are long from the original break above 1.2950 (there was even the re-test of that level yesterday which we suggested as a chance to add to longs) and expect the triangle to yield a target in the region of 1.3290. At present the bulls are steadying themselves above 1.3000 so further progress has been somewhat laboured; the next resistance level is expected at 1.3093 (10 May high) with weak resistance also anticipated at 1.3213 and 1.3254 (14 and 13 May highs respectively). Support at 1.2950 is still valid, with trendline support at 1.2905 –but should the pair drop below there we would have to concede the failure of the bullish triangle breakout, and would then expect technical levels below at 1.2793 (Friday’s low), 1.2733 (21 Jul low), 1.2683 (14 Jul low) and 1.2522 (13 Jul low).
GbpUsd GBPUSD continues to march unwaveringly higher, making easy work of the tangle of technical resistance levels between 1.5525-75 (15 April high, 200-day moving average and 23 Feb high) and going on to touch 1.5627 this morning. As previously discussed, we feel that the UK GDP figures last Friday were a game changer, and from here we would relish any dips towards the lower edge of the current uptrend channel now seen at 1.5350 (coinciding with a recent pivot level) to get long, and set a stop through 1.5300. Really there is not much standing in the way of an assault on the 17 Feb high 1.5816 in the coming days, then only uptrend resistance (currently at 1.5905) before the psychological significant 1.6000. Supports now seen below at 1.5525, 1.5450 and 1.5350.
UsdJpy Finally, a breakout from the 86.25 –87.75 range; and as expected, this has occurred on the topside –in the process activating a double bottom pattern we proposed earlier in the week. Given the depth of the two troughs we should therefore anticipate a target around 88.85, and after this morning’s break above the significant 88.00 pivot level, that now seems an extremely attainable goal. Sellers may still hinder progress up through the remaining trendline resistance around 88.45 but then the next discernable levels are all beyond our target; 89.15 (12 Jul high) and 89.50 (28-29 Jun high). Adding conviction to our view is the bullish engulfing candlestick carved out on the daily chart which suggests the bears have become overwhelmed and further upside is likely. Dips back towards the 87.75 breakout level will likely meet good bids, with the supports below there at 86.82 (yesterday’s low) and 86.25 (recent range floor).
UsdChf The bulls finally got a better grip on USDCHF yesterday, and not only managed to take out the stubborn 1.0565 resistance level, but then to print a bullish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart. We now see a fresh bullish flag pattern possible on the hourly chart which would suggest that on a break above 1.0620 we should go long and aim for a target around 1.0770. Standing in our way before that would be yesterday’s high 1.0640 (roughly coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 1.0644), the top of the 1-week uptrend channel at 1.0685, then the major 1.0700 level. Bidders are very likely to lurk around 1.0565 where the old resistance level once stood, then 1.0450and 1.0400.
(Reuters) - World stocks rose for the fifth day running on Wednesday as solid corporate earnings combined with easing fears about financial stability to boost investors appetite for riskier assets.
The dollar, following recent risk patterns, was lower against a basket of major currencies.
MSCI's all-country world index .MIWD00000PUS was up 0.4 percent against the previous close and the Thomson Reuters global stock index .TRXFLDGLPU gained half a percent. The MSCI index had touched a 2-1/2 month high during Tuesday's session.
Earnings reports in Europe and Japan were behind much of the improved mood.
"Earnings are coming through better than expected," said Bernard McAlinden, investment strategist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. "Banks are better ... having underperformed for some time."
Among European companies reporting forecast-beating results were Spanish bank BBVA (BBVA.MC), British American Tobacco (BATS.L), German chipmaker Infineon (IFXGn.DE) and the world's leading luxury goods group LVMH (LVMH.PA).
The FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 was up half a percent for a 1.3 percent year-to-date gain. Banks were leading the way. BBVA was up nearly 1 percent.
Earlier, Japan's Nikkei .N225 climbed 2.7 percent for its highest close and biggest one-day gain in two weeks. Canon (7751.T) jumped 5.7 percent after the world's No. 1 camera maker reported its strongest profit in seven quarters.
The positive earnings sentiment trumped concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, epitomized by mixed economic data on Tuesday. Home prices rose in May, but labor-market worries took July consumer confidence to its lowest since February.
U.S. financial services firm State Street suggested on Tuesday, however, that confidence among institutional investors was rising across the board and that good valuations were attracting them back into equities.
EURO REBOUND
The euro hit a two-month high against the yen and was up against the dollar as recent signs of resilience in the euro zone economy and solid bank earnings released brought out buyers.
Against the dollar, the euro was up a quarter of a percent at $1.3025, hovering near an 11-week high of $1.3047 struck on Tuesday.
"Clearly there's a risk-on situation as the market is starting to believe there's a (European) recovery in place, but there is thin liquidity behind it," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.
Euro zone government bond yields fell, with the focus on a Portuguese auction later in the day.
(Additional reporting by Brian Gorman and Neal Armstrong; editing by Patrick Graham)
